The Future of Sports

This week I listened to Bill Simmons and Chuck Klosterman debate the relevancy of soccer and baseball and whether or not "baseball is in trouble." It's an interesting subject but they didn't really get to the heart of the matter. Which is this: for my entire life there have three major pro sports: football, baseball and basketball. There are other sports, but there has been a clear demarkation between the major sports and the less popular sports.

The question seems to be, in 50 years (or even 100 years) will baseball be one of the major sports? What will the sports landscape look like in the future?

In order to make predictions about the future of sports I think I need to look back at what sports leagues have been popular and try to gleam why.

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100 years ago, the three most popular sports were boxing, horse racing and baseball. It's hard to find definitive numbers but it's clear those were the big three in some order in the early 1900s. 

The reason that horse racing and boxing were popular is gambling. And also, lack of other options. But gambling. From the 1910s to 1960s, baseball remained popular, but horse racing and boxing dipped. Other forms of gambling came around. Horse racing and boxing weren't suited for TV. Also, I think a structure to the season, the regularity, helps something take hold. Plus, as we see what takes their place (football and basketball) it becomes obvious that team sports and athleticism is more interesting to the public than animals or fighting. 

As the chart shows since the 1960s, football has reigned as the most popular sport. Super Bowls are the most watched events in America and even regular season NFL games outdraw World Series games.

Even in recent history, as Klosterman and Simmons noted, the most famous athletes are basketball stars. So why has football been the most popular?

I think it's the physicality and the rarity. There are other reasons. The team fandom is stronger than other sports. And parity helps keeps giving fans hope. Plus, fantasy football has welcomed a new generation.

But the things that make football totally unique are the unbridled physicality—no other sport allows let alone encourages you to crash into another player as hard as you can. And because there are only 16 games, each one feels monumentally important.

Consider the fall of baseball. Not only is each moment generally pretty boring, but the games don't matter. The best teams lose 50 a year.

• • •

Today, it's still football, basketball and baseball. But football and baseball have unique problems. Let's start with football. Despite reports that the kneeling protests were hurting the sport, here's a quick breakdown of the NFL ratings in 2017:

So people are watching less traditional TV (as streaming options expand) but when they do, NFL is still king. In fact, when you look at the top 100 broadcasts in 2017, 44 were NFL games, including all the top 5.

So why are people skeptical of the NFL's future? It's not the flag. It's the effects of the physical nature of the game. It's CTE. Every year there are more suicides. It's concussions. It's players being paralyzed on the field.

Many people, myself included, love the NFL. But how many players have to kill themselves or be paralyzed before a majority of fans stop supporting the game? What happens when someone dies on the field? The league is trying to make the game safer, but hitting is the game. It's why people love it. And millions of people aren't going to tune into flag football.

Youth football is already on it's way out. In 50 years how many parents will let their kids play football before they turn 18?

Baseball has nearly the opposite problem. It's too boring. It's not designed for short attention spans. It's on all the time with no significance. The ball is hardly in play. Once again though, the flaws are inherent to the game. I mean, you could change the schedule to 20 games a year, but they won't.

• • •

So what will people be watching in 50 or 100 years? Quickly I'll recap the second section above with a rough timeline of what made a sport successful from 100 years ago to present:

• Gambling
• Lack of other options
• Team sports
• Athleticism
• Physicality
• Not boring
• Rarity

That list will be helpful but I also think it's important to be forward-thinking and try to extrapolate features of a sport that might be beneficial over the next 100 years:

• Accessible for short attention spans
• Global popularity
• Parents want their kids to play it

I think the 1st and 3rd items on that list are self-explanatory. Global popularity was brought up by Klosterman and I think it's a plausible appeal in the 21st century—that technology has made the world connected and a sport that is played around the world could benefit from that.

It's hard for us to imagine that anything could be radically different in 50 years, despite this absolutely being the story of the 20th century. But I think we all can wrap our heads around the idea that in 100 years things might be unrecognizable. So I'm going to work on that scale.

In 100 years, I don't think the NFL exists the way it does today. I think because players only get bigger, faster and stronger, and the science around CTE will only get more conclusive, a full contact sport like football doesn't have long-term viability.

I expect baseball to live on the tertiary of the sports world, like tennis or golf does now. People might care about the World Series, but I expect the regular season audiences to dwindle, resulting in a reduction of season length.

So what takes its place?

Basketball seems to be the front runner. It's a team sport with athleticism and some physicality. It's not as boring as baseball. The highlights are accessible for short attention spans, parents have no problem with their kids playing it, and it's popular around the world. Plus, it's already #2 and has unlimited star potential.

Soccer would seem positioned for success. A team sport with athleticism and some physicality. It has moments of excitement and mounting pressure. Only two hours for a streamlined experience. Great highlights. Parents want their kids to play and it's the world's most popular game. The biggest hindrance is the MLS is weak and the ratings pale compared to leagues around the world. But as technology advances, there's really not much difference between watching Champions League soccer and a baseball game in your city. And over 100 years, the MLS could (in theory) become the best league, simply by paying the most and getting the best players.

I also think hockey is a dark horse here. Team sport. Athletic. Not boring. Great in person. The action never stops, perfect for attention spans. The secret sauce here is that if football goes away or becomes flag football, hockey could be the most physical sport. I could definitely see the Eagles, Bears, Patriots and Steelers fans (just to name a few) that switch to hockey once the NFL is no longer what it is now. The counterargument is that CTE is possibly just as prevalent in hockey, but football is getting all the headlines.

Lacrosse or rugby are potential niche sports that could grow to become #3 in 100 years. Rugby (if safer) would seem the perfect football replacement, but that if safer is probably a "no." Less concussions but CTE all the same is my guess.

tl;dr In 100 years, I'd bet on Soccer and Basketball being the two most popular sports in America.