I heard a stat during the World Cup about an oncoming substitute. "He's scored the most goals in the league over the last three years." That initially sounded very impressive. But then I started thinking about it. I hypothesized that by adjusting the length of time and cherry-picking a stat, you can find a claim to match almost anyone. I figured with 5 different QB stats and 5 lengths of time, I could probably find different leaders for 16 quarterbacks. Let's see. (To qualify, I'm using Pro Football Reference's minimum of 14 attempts per game.)
Completion %
Last year: Brees
Last 2 years: Bradford
Last 3 years: Brees
Last 4 years: Brees
Last 5 years: Brees
Passing Yards
Last year: Brady
Last 2 years: Brees
Last 3 years: Brees
Last 4 years: Brees
Last 5 years: Brees
Passing Yards/Attempt
Last year: Brees
Last 2 years: Ryan
Last 3 years: Ryan
Last 4 years: Ryan
Last 5 years: P. Manning
Passing TDs
Last year: Wilson
Last 2 years: Rivers
Last 3 years: Brady
Last 4 years: Brady
Last 5 years: Brees
Passer Rating
Last year: Smith
Last 2 years: Brady
Last 3 years: Brady
Last 4 years: Brady
Last 5 years: Rodgers
Brees, Brady, Ryan, Rodgers, Smith, Wilson, Rivers, Manning and Bradford. That's 9 QBs that have some claim of being the best in a certain category over a specific time frame. Still, not as many as I would have guessed. (It's obviously easier to find a QB that leads a category in a single random season, but that's not something that sounds relevant in a 2018 broadcast. Ex: If a broadcaster said "Matt Ryan leads the league in Yards/Attempt over the last 4 seasons" that sounds a lot more impressive than "Romo led the league in Yards/Attempt in 2014."
It's ultimately a testament to the dominance of Brees and Brady. New hypothesis: if I looked at the time frame before Brady/Brees that there would be a wider array of QBs. I'm going to start my new search to include the 2002 season.
Completion %
2002: Pennington
2001-2002: Warner
2000-2002: Warner
1999-2002: Warner
1998-2002: Warner
Passing Yards
2002: Gannon
2001-2002: Gannon
2000-2002: P. Manning
1999-2002: P. Manning
1998-2002: P. Manning
Passing Yards/Attempt
2002: Green
2001-2002: Warner
2000-2002: Warner
1999-2002: Warner
1998-2002: Warner
Passing TDs
2002: Brady
2001-2002: Favre
2000-2002: P. Manning
1999-2002: P. Manning
1998-2002: P. Manning
Passer Rating
2002: Pennington
2001-2002: Gannon
2000-2002: Gannon
1999-2002: Warner
1998-2002: Warner
Pennington, Warner, Gannon, Manning, Green, Brady, and Favre. 7 QBs. Very surprising. So basically my entire theory is wrong. It's harder to twist stats than I thought.
Can you find a statistic that shows that Matthew Stafford is worth $135 million over 5 years?
ReplyDeleteSo I figured that I could show Stafford is one of the best to be QB for the Lions. I think the best stat is yards/attempt. Turn out Stafford is 7th best to play for the Lions. He's not quite as good as Rodney Peete. Did the Lions give Rodney Peete $135 million?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&year_min=1920&year_max=2017&season_start=1&season_end=-1&team_id=det&pos%5B%5D=qb&draft_year_min=1936&draft_year_max=2018&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&draft_pick_in_round=pick_overall&conference=any&draft_pos%5B%5D=qb&draft_pos%5B%5D=rb&draft_pos%5B%5D=wr&draft_pos%5B%5D=te&draft_pos%5B%5D=e&draft_pos%5B%5D=t&draft_pos%5B%5D=g&draft_pos%5B%5D=c&draft_pos%5B%5D=ol&draft_pos%5B%5D=dt&draft_pos%5B%5D=de&draft_pos%5B%5D=dl&draft_pos%5B%5D=ilb&draft_pos%5B%5D=olb&draft_pos%5B%5D=lb&draft_pos%5B%5D=cb&draft_pos%5B%5D=s&draft_pos%5B%5D=db&draft_pos%5B%5D=k&draft_pos%5B%5D=p&c1stat=pass_att&c1comp=gt&c1val=224&c5val=1.0&order_by=pass_yds_per_att
Well, at least Stafford doesn't crush the salary cap and prevent the Lions from signing other good players to make a step towards contending for at least a playoff win.
ReplyDelete