In the year 2030, will the majority of car (passenger) travel be done by human drivers as it is today or by autonomous cars?
I say human drivers. Niraj says autonomous.
Niraj's Point of View:
Accident rates speak for themselves
Self-driving is happening in several states already
The money savings will drive the change
12 years is a long time for technological changes
My Point of View:
Americans are stubborn and stupid
Lawmakers are wary of taking away freedoms
People have an incentive to own and drive their own car
We make emotional, unwise decisions all the time
We both agree that on a long-term scale that autonomous vehicles are the future. The question is will the majority tipping point arrive by 2030? I honestly don't feel super confident one way or another, but think it's interesting and wanted to write it down.
I think both of you made the right arguments and my belief is that Dave will win the bet. Change is slow, especially a big change like this. One strong value of America is independence, and self-driving cars take away this independence. Also, while self-driving cars will work well in cities, this isn't going to work nearly as well in smaller towns and rural areas.
ReplyDeleteNiraj could win on a technicality, though, since it says majority of car travel, not majority of people. In cities, self-driving cars will run around the clock, while in less populated areas, self-driving cars won't be used as much.
I’ll echo Mark’s sentiments here and agree with Fym. I have 2-3 more years of data now and feel like a decade isn’t enough time to get to this goal. I’ll also name that cars last for a long time so cars purchased today will likely still be on the road in 10 years. That makes the 50% switch to autonomous that much less likely.
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