Niraj Fever: Vegas Edition

One of my burdens to carry is that everyone wants to go with me to Vegas.
(Also, staying humble.)

This year I combined Niraj and my Mom into one trip and told Aunt Paula I'd try to catch her next year.

FRIDAY

We arrive and check into the Aria. I got handed a glass of wine while Burnsy was checking in, so if you had bet Dave for first drink at +150 that's a winner.

We headed to the Venetian. First up: Flight Club, a social dart venue.

I quite enjoyed the Bee Sting cocktail. Also, there's no way to bury this lede any further. I was on a HEATER at the dartboard. We tried every game and I was pulling out the Michael Jordan shrug because I couldn't understand how well I was throwing. I was hanging in St. Paul's CaTHREEdral all freaking day. 

One time Burnsy closed it a game out first and then I came back and hit a double to send it to overtime. Sometimes you're on one, and that was me at darts.

After darts we both hit the roulette. I got up $30 right away using my martingale system on red/black. I cashed out so I was only playing with profit and then I tried Niraj's system of betting on green. I put $3 on the green covering 0 & 00. And within 5 rolls, it hit for a $54 winner.

After that we got burgers at Black Tap, a place that had been on my list for years. It lived up to the hype.

After that we found a prohibition bar and got a nightcap.

We walked back to Aria from the Venetian, burning off 100% of the food and drink calories.

SATURDAY

We had breakfast outside on the patio of Salt & Ivy. I got the biscuit and gravy but subbed the egg for hash browns. They should make this a permanent option.

From there we headed to AREA15.

We did Omega Mart first.

Then we checked into The Continental.

We survived (perhaps excelled) at the John Wick Experience. Below is the cocktail, With A Pencil.

After Wick, we played the golf simulator at AREA15, called Five Iron Golf. This was awesome because we were both bad. I'm not kidding, it made for a fun time as we both struggled to avoid the bunkers of Pebble Beach.

Then, we played shuffleboard on truly the wonkiest table we'd ever seen. This thing had it all: dead spots, curves from left edge to off the right edge, stationary wiggles. 

By the time we were leaving AREA15 it was dark and I got this shot:

We walked from there to Taru for the best sushi I've ever had.

We ordered the 20-piece Sashimi and it was nuts.

From there, it was a short walk to Golden Tiki, a rad tiki bar.

I had four drinks and then Mrs. Hoagie Central called. What did we talk about? I do not know.

We went to Cosmopolitan to gamble.

SUNDAY

Had to wake up early and arrive at Circa by 9:30am for NFL Sunday on Pacific Time.

The screens were incredible and I got some decent wings as well.

Now because the three games I felt great about were the Chiefs, Patriots and Seahawks, and they all won big, then surely I had a great day at the sportsbook. You would freaking think so. But no, I had to do a bunch of stupid stuff and only broke even. Still, I've had worse days at the sportsbook.

After six hours of football, including nice wins by the Chiefs and Bears and a truly insane ending to Giants-Broncos, we tried the tiki bar near the Circa: Glitter Gulch. It was fine but not as rad as The Golden Tiki.

(photo credit: Niraj. Great shot!)

Then we got a ride to the Rio to eat a Korean BBQ place: Kang's Kitchen. They cooked it all for us and it was super fun and tasty. The meals on this trip were super good.

We were at the Rio to go to the Comedy Cellar. Five comedians, all really funny. Jimmy McMurrin, Dean Delray, Brandi Denise, Ryan Goodcase, and Jeff Leach. Ryan and Jimmy were my favorites.

(photo credit: Niraj)

We went to the Bellagio next. Always a classic.

Gambled more in Aria before bed.

MONDAY

I woke up earlyish on Monday and met up with my Mom in Paris. That's right, two trips in one.

I started playing on their machine and hit 4 nines on a 11x multiplier. That's 1375 nickels on a $1.50 pull.

We then went to Cabo Wabo Cantina where we met up with Niraj and we all had fajitas together. 

We walked to Ole Red per my Mom's request.

Then Burnsdog and I walked to Brewdog.

The sun was hitting the top of Burnsy's head and doing crazy stuff.

We went back to gamble a little bit more with my Mom. At this point, Niraj hit two roulette greens in a short span and was crushing it. We decided to spend our last night where we spent our first night: The Venetian.

We split the hot chicken (medium level) at Howlin Ray's. We split it because we wanted to save room...

Because we each ordered this freaking enormous milkshake from Black Tap. This is not an optical illusion. It was giant.

We gambled for a bit and I made a truly horrific Monday Night Football bet that we then watched play out in real time. 

We walked back down the Strip and ended up at Bottled Blonde where we saw a really good band: Full Circle. They did everything from Nirvana to Cranberries and did it well.

TUESDAY

It was my last day. We headed to Paris to meet up with my Mom again.

We walked to In and Out Burger for our last meal.

Damn, we really did it all. Great trip!

best song of 2025

this is art (Titans-Cardinals)

This is a rich tapestry. Obviously the first thing you see is Kyler not receiving the snap. But the more you look, the more interesting it gets. 

The RG who is not set in his stance and is tapping his helmet, just as the ball arrives to Kyler's helmet.

The RT who is really set in his stance and lets 45 go right by. (45 will collect the ball, a turnover that prevents a FG attempt.)

Even after the play above, Emari Demarcado has a chance to ice the game 28-6 in the 4th quarter. He comes within a foot of doing so:

So now it's 21-6 in the 4th. The Titans drive down the field and score. Riding high with momentum they could go for two. Instead they try to make it a one possession game by going for one:

Truly one of the worst extra points I've ever seen.

After a Cardinals punt, the Titans drive down to the red zone. And on 3rd and 2, call up a truly innovative play:

Great execution for a touchdown.

It was 21-19 at this point, and the Cardinals would punt and the Titans would go down and kick a field goal to win. Really tremendous plays that show why the NFL is a $25 billion industry.

The Final White Whale Update

Some may remember this Top Ten post from 2019, about three White Whales. (Things that I loved at one point but can't find and am therefore unable to experience nostalgia around it.)

The first was a 1994 TV show that I started looking for in 2006 and found in 2013. 

The second to be completed was about a picture book from 1991 that I started looking for in 2005 and finally found in 2019. 

The third was about a band I saw perform in 2001-02. I started looking for them in 2006...

Nearly 20 years after the fact, I was forced to accept that I was never going to find this band. They were playing at a party, not even at Canopy Club or something. The idea that I was going to find this band at this point was ridiculous. 

After making my own AI-generated music, I tried to connect these two unrelated pursuits to close the book on this missing band from so long ago.

Of course, that didn't really take. 

So I fired up ChatGPT to see if it could find the impossible. 

Here was the first response:

I tried to give it more info and it came back with:

I listened and it didn't seem right, plus it was way too late for the album to come out. 

So I gave it more info.

My jaw dropped. 

A band in the right genre, that played central Illinois college towns, with an album that came out in the right timeframe. It's promising, sure, but not a smoking gun. 

But the name of the lead singer. Mitchell. 

And yes, one of Park's songs from No Signal is acoustic. If you go back and look at my 2006 email, I was confident about the acoustic part, hazy on the violin part. 

It was all adding up. But just to be really, really sure...

If that wasn't enough, just playing the music, it sounds like music I like. 

In case their Wikipedia page ever gets removed, here is Park's discography from there:

And just to pre-empt any confusion, their last 3 albums are on Spotify, but they're all listed as 2006, which is just a Spotify error.

So yeah. ChatGPT is pretty impressive. And it's fun to be able to listen to No Signal and think I was hearing it 24 years ago and searching for it for 19 years. Mostly though it's amazing to think that I found it after all these years.

Work Trip: Cleveland Shoot

Spent 4 nights in Cleveland filming some new good stuff. 

I got to see a tagline I wrote being sold in stores, and isn't that the American dream?

For the first time we didn't stay at the Arcade, but still popped in to see it post-Superman.

My favorite quote was from the Director who said about one take: "It will be better...when we do it better."

Work Trip: Buffalo

Had a quick one night work trip in Buffalo.

holy shit, is it 5786 already?

Step 1: Dip the apple in honey.

Step 2: Reflect on your life.
Step 3: Blow something long, hard, and ancient.

2025 NFL Preview

In August 2024, I predicted Chiefs over Eagles in LIX. 

In August 2023, I predicted 49ers over Chiefs in LVIII. 

Two years running I've picked both Super Bowl teams correctly! If you ignore the part where I got the winners wrong, it's very impressive!

In August 2022, I correctly predicted the Chiefs to win LVII, but incorrectly picked the Vikings as their opponent.

In August 2019, I correctly predicted the Chiefs to win LIV, but incorrectly picked the Saints as their opponent.

A Super Bowl prediction involves three elements: AFC team, NFC team, and the winner. Over the last 6 years, I've gotten 2 out of 3 elements correct four times. And really, who counts the covid years anyways?

- - -

After a 50-year gap between Super Bowl appearances, the Chiefs have appeared in (check notes...that can't be right...) five of the last six Super Bowls. 

Since the start of the 2015 regular season, the Chiefs have the most Super Bowl Wins.

Since the start of the 2005 regular season, no team has more Super Bowl Wins. 

(The Patriots also have three.)

Since the start of the 1987 regular season, the Chiefs are still tied for 2nd place in Super Bowl Wins.

- - -

Before just plowing ahead, I want to pause to look back and see how I did last year, see if there's anything to be learned. 

AFC Division Finishes

I got 4/4 correct in the West, 2/4 in every other division. I nailed the bottom team in every division. Also the top team in every division except the Bills. The only misses last year was swapping Bills/Dolphins, Colts/Jaguars, Steelers/Bengals.

That seems really strong?

NFC Division Finishes

Less strong here, getting 2/4 in three divisions but only 1/4 in the NFC North. Again, I'm doing better by identifying the worst and best teams. 

Last year of the 8 teams I picked to be last in their division, 6 times they were. I got 5 division winners correct. Still seems like enough to make money on.

As for the playoffs I only got 4/7 correct on both sides. Not great. 

My best call last year was picking the 49ers to miss the playoffs.

Does that help me learn anything? Not really. It does seem to show that the more familiar I am with a division/conference, the better I do. Enough stalling, let's get to it.

- - -

AFC West

The Chiefs should have a better receiver room than last year...but are also coming off a Super Bowl loss. The one time Mahomes missed a Super Bowl (which is a crazy phrase) was coming off a Super Bowl loss. But they were also up at halftime at home in the AFC Championship. So yes, it was a rare choke job, but can we put that on the Super Bowl hangover? They'll be good, but how good?

Year Two of Harbaugh in LA. In Year One, he improved by 6 wins, rising to 11-6. They've got a promising rookie RB but also already had an OL injury. 11-6 seems like a likely ballpark for them again.

Bo Nix went to the playoffs as a rookie. Great defense. Feels like the offense caps their ceiling but their defense gives them a good floor. Another 11-6 team?

Pete Carroll is 73 and this is year one for him in Vegas. Going with Geno Smith who Carroll is well-familiar with. Brock Bowers is a star and Ashton Jeanty could make this team must-watch? But that doesn't mean they'll win double digit games. 

Look, the Chiefs have won the division 9 years in a row. No guarantee it's 10, but I'm going to keep picking them first until they prove me wrong. Raiders will be frisky and improved but I've still got them last. Chargers could win the division, but with injury luck, I see them flip-flopping with the Broncos who are carried by their defense.

Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers, Raiders. 

AFC East

So the Bills have won this division 6 years in a row. Last year I got cute and thought I could see the Bills falling off and I was wrong. They still have Josh Allen and they're going to be good again. 

Feels like I can copy and paste from the 2024 Dolphins preview: Speaking of banking everything on an injury-prone QB, the Miami Dolphins. Speed kills and they've got it. A great team in September and October, but once the weather drops, they lose their magic. Should be good for 9 or 10 wins, but it's hard to see why they'd be better than last year. 

The Jets have replaced Aaron Rodgers with Justin Fields. I used to own Justin Fields stock and I guess I still do, it's just not worth very much. I'm not sure going to Jets is the way to lift your value. 

The Patriots have Vrabel as coach after Jerod Mayo went 4-13. So Drake Maye in a new system after going 3-9 in his rookie year and somehow also the Pro Bowl. Lol. I like Vrabel to give them a spark, but this team is still a ways away. 

Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets.

AFC South

Stroud took a step back. The Texans won their division at 10 wins. Seems like a repeat performance is on deck, but gone are the Super Bowl darling predictions.

Duuuvalll??? Everyone wants to believe that Liam Cohen is going to come to the Jags and finally make Lawrence the prince that was promised. Might take more than a year. 

Titans rolling with #1 overall Cam Ward. They're still going to be bad, with moments of friskiness.

The Colts QB situation is a mess. 

Texans, Jaguars, Titans, Colts

AFC North

The Ravens are the class of the division and as long as we're talking regular season, no reason to doubt them!

The Bengals have kept their offense intact at the cost of their defense. Should make for a lot of exciting 42-44 point games, but more losses than you'd expect by just looking at the offense. 

The Steelers are all-in this year and are relying on 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers. I don't have confidence in Rodgers, but the surrounding pieces are good enough to win games.

The Browns are shit. 

Ravens, Steelers, Bengals, Browns

AFC Playoff Teams

1 Ravens

2 Bills

3 Chiefs

4 Texans

5 Broncos

6 Steelers

7 Bengals

- - -

NFC North

The 2023 Lions were a normal bounce away from facing the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII. The 2024 Lions got bounced in the first round of the playoffs by a rookie QB. Detroit enters 2025 without Ben Johnson. So if we're not doing trick plays, is biting kneecaps enough?

Speaking of Ben Johnson, he goes to the Bears. Caleb Williams will get better. (He almost has to?) But how quickly?

Last year I was wrestling with doubts over Jordan Love...overrated? They went 11-6, losing in the first round to the Eagles. Which doesn't actually prove either way if Love is great or not. But now they've added Micah Parsons and should be ready to do some damage.

And the Vikings went 14-3 with Sam Darnold but flamed out in the playoffs. So once again they've got an incredible receiver in their prime and are rolling out an unproven QB. 

Packers, Lions, Vikings, Bears

NFC East

You've got the Super Bowl Champion Eagles, the ascendant Commanders, a team that refuses to use curtains to prevent their players from being blinded, and the shitty Giants. 

Traditionally the Super Bowl hangover is for the loser, and it might be this year also, but also the Eagles are one injury to Hurts or Saquon from being pedestrian. They should be better than Wash, but it wouldn't surprise me if Commanders get to 12 wins and Eagles drop to 11. 

Eagles, Commanders, Cowboys, Giants

NFC South

This is a familiar feeling, and I'm never right, but I believe in the Falcons and I doubt the Bucs. 

I'm all in on riding Penix. 

And the Panthers could get all the way up to don't buy.

Falcons, Bucs, Panthers, Saints

NFC West

This division is super balanced. I was out last year on the 49ers. But this year is the year after the SB hangover. Meanwhile the Rams could put it all together, or could get injured and fall to pieces. Fun!

49ers, Rams, Seahawks, Cardinals

NFC Playoff Teams

1 49ers

2 Packers

3 Eagles

4 Falcons

5 Commanders

6 Lions

7 Bucs

Two years ago I made this prediction and I liked how it turned out. Let's run it back:

Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara: 

49ers over Chiefs