Most Watched TV Programs of All Time

New Adventures of Old Christine did not make the cut.

So of the top two most watched TV shows, one was an American hero reaching the pinnacle of human achievement, and the other was some dude named Armstrong walking on a rock.

Week 15: Injured

Let's check in on the injury report:

Injury Report: 

Mahomes, Patrick. (QUESTIONABLE)

Lions, Detroit. (OUT)

- - -

AFC

In: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Steelers, Texans, Broncos, Chargers

Likely In: none

Up In The Air: none

Likely Out: none

Crossed Off: Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, Browns, Raiders, Jets, Dolphins, Bengals, Colts

NFC

In: Lions, Commanders, Eagles, Vikings, Packers

Likely In: Rams, Bucs

Up In The Air: Seahawks

Likely Out: Falcons

Crossed Off: Giants, Panthers, Saints, Cowboys, Bears, 49ers, Cardinals

- - -

Concerns for Contenders:

Chiefs: Offense still not clicking yet and Mahomes ankle

Eagles: Can everyone just get along?

Bills: Defense and can they overcome playoff ineptitude

Lions: Injuries. Defense is decimated. 

Vikings: Is Darnold really going to go to the Super Bowl?

Packers: The path as a wild-card team

Steelers: Can TJ Watt and Pickens be healthy? Can they win the division?

Ravens: Can they trick Lamar into thinking the regular season lasts 22 games?

Eagles and Packers concerns seem the mildest. At this point either one seems like a good bet for the Super Bowl considering the Lions injuries. 

In the AFC, who knows what we're going to get? Josh Allen is the MVP but his defense is having trouble. I'm not betting against KC. 

DVOA says the Ravens are the best. I could maybe believe in them if they had the 1 seed, but they're not going to have it. 

Winningest NFL Coaches

Bill Belichick appears to be done coaching in the NFL. This opens the door for Andy Reid. 

Regular Season Only

Andy is averaging around 13 regular season wins a year. On pace to pass Belichick in 2027. Would take 5 more seasons at that clip to pass Shula. Reid is currently 66. 

Playoffs Only

Reid is 5 behind Belichick. Reid has added 14 wins in the last 5 years, minimum of 2 every year. Hard to count on playoff wins, but technically on pace to pass Belichick in 2026 or 2027.

Regular Season + Playoff Wins Combined

1. Don Shula, 347 wins
2. Bill Belichick, 333 wins

3. George Halas, 324 wins

4. Andy Reid, 296 wins

Averaging 15 combined wins a year, Reid is on track to become number one in 2028.

24 best memes of 2024

non-paywalled link

I figured out Super Bowl 59

Ten years ago, I had perhaps my best prediction ever. 

Two weeks before the Malcom Butler goalline interception in the Seahawks/Patriots Super Bowl, I wrote this.

I've done it again. I've seen the future. I know how Super Bowl 59 will unfold.

- - - 

This season has been dominated by two teams of destiny, one in each conference. Two 12-1 teams on the verge of clinching the first round bye and home field advantage, who couldn't be different in how they're winning.

The Kansas City Chiefs are winning ugly and close. After two straight years of winning the Super Bowl, it's almost as if the NFL script writers got bored and desperate. Instead of just having the Chiefs win normal games, someone decided it would be more interesting if every week the Chiefs found a new way to win on a last second play, most of which might happen every couple of years or so in the entire league. 

The Likely toe on the game-tying TD

Getting pass interference on 4th and 16

Overtime vs Tampa

Blocked field goal to win

Botched snap by Raiders

Doink and in vs Chargers

Some call it Tayvoodoo. Some call it black magic or dark magic. Some say that the Chiefs have sold their soul to the Devil. 

I don't care what you call it. But you'd be a fool to ignore it at this point. 

On the other hand, you have the Detroit Lions. They are winning pretty and big. Point differential of +183 through 13 games, best in the league. Next closest is Buffalo at +129. (The Chiefs are down at +56. Which is third in the AFC West behind two teams with only 8 wins.)

Detroit is a breakthrough. Aesthetically pleasing and with the best motivational coach in the league, aggressive and tough. They are looking to go to the Super Bowl for the first time. And they're doing it in style. 

These two teams are destined to meet in the Super Bowl this year. And where is it being held? No other city than New Orleans, the epicenter of voodoo magic and the dark arts.

Here's how it will unfold:

We already know it's going to be a close game. The Chiefs don't know how to be in anything else. But every time, it hinges upon a new element. So there won't be any repeats. No toes on the line or botched snaps. No it will be something we haven't seen yet. 

I was running though a mental list of possibilities of unusual ways to win...when it hit me. The inverse of what we just saw. 

We were given foreshadowing a month ago. Bates, the kicker for Detroit, has a knack of kicking it just inside the uprights. 

Here's a composite of two kicks narrowly sneaking by the upright.

So imagine you take a kicker that does THAT, but instead they are kicking in the voodoo capital of the universe against a team that has mastered the dark arts?

The Detroit Lions will lose the Super Bowl by doinking a kick to the Kansas City Chiefs. 

You might assume it's a field goal, and it might be. But it came to me in my vision as a doinked extra point. The most aggressive team in the Lions will lose by going for one.

Week 13: Post-Thanksgiving Stretch

Well, the AFC playoff picture hasn't changed in two weeks.

AFC

In: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Steelers, Texans

Likely In: Chargers, Broncos

Up In The Air: none

Likely Out: Colts

Crossed Off: Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, Browns, Raiders, Jets, Dolphins, Bengals

The NFC is both easy and complicated.

NFC

In: Lions, Commanders, Eagles, Vikings, Packers, NFC West winner, NFC South Winner

Likely In: 

Up In The Air: Seahawks/Cardinals/Rams, Falcons/Bucs

Likely Out: 

Crossed Off: Giants, Panthers, Saints, Cowboys, Bears, 49ers

We don't have a race for the wild-card teams. We have a race for two division winners. 

In the South, we have the Falcons and Bucs, both 6-6. The Falcons have a -34 point differential, while the Bucs are +39. The Falcons have lost three in a row while the Bucs have won two in a row. The metrics favor the Bucs. I remember rooting for the Falcons last year and it was awful. So let's say the Bucs win this division. 

In the West, the Seahawks are 7-5 but the Cardinals and Rams are lurking at 6-6. This whole division is a crapshoot. We'll have to put a pin in this one. 

- - -

Just for the hell of it...let's check in on the Burrowhead crew. The Bengals secondary coined that in January 2023.

Since Burrowhead was coined, the Bengals are 0-1 in the playoffs, missed the playoffs following the 2023 season, and are currently 4-8. 

Since Burrowhead was coined, the Chiefs are 6-0 in the playoffs, including two Super Bowl wins, and are 11-1 this year. 

Since Burrowhead was coined, the Bengals are 0-3 vs the Chiefs, including this year where the secondary committed pass interference on 4th and 16.

If you come for the King, you best not miss.

Week 12: On the Road

Huge win for the Chiefs. Anytime you can go toe to toe with a great team on the road, you've got to like your chances come playoff time.

Predicting Conference Championship Sunday

Sunday, January 26, 2025

2pm Central

Eagles at Lions

5:30pm Central

Bills at Chiefs

Week 11: Crunch Time

Let's just go straight to the playoff picture. 

AFC

In: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Steelers, Texans

Likely In: Chargers, Broncos

Up In The Air: none

Likely Out: Colts

Crossed Off: Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, Browns, Raiders, Jets, Dolphins, Bengals

NFC

In: Lions, Commanders, Eagles, Falcons

Likely In: Vikings, Packers

Up In The Air: The NFC West

Likely Out: none

Crossed Off: Giants, Panthers, Saints, Cowboys, Bears, Bucs

The teams that are crossed off are shit. The only thing that gives me pause is that it's hard to have 3 playoff teams from the same division. Chiefs/Chargers/Broncos all look like playoff teams but because they play each other, does that give breathing room to a team like the Colts?

Same story in the NFC. Lions/Vikings/Packers should all make it, but will they? Could the NFC West sneak two teams in?

- - -

Here's a thing. The media, podcasters and fans all judge a team by their offense. 

A team like the Bengals have scored the 5th most points. Everyone thinks this must be a playoff team!

The Chiefs have only scored the 13th most points. This team must not be a serious contender!

But the Chiefs have allowed the 8th least points. Bengals have the 30th best defense.

Let's check in on some other teams, all just going on points scored, points allowed.

Ravens: 2nd on offense, 27th on defense.

Bills: 3rd on offense, 10th on defense.

Lions: 1st on offense, 4th on defense. 

Now that's a championship caliber team. Here's the top ten teams sorted by point differential.

Lions and Bills fans, book your tickets to New Orleans. 

- - - 

For the fourth year in a row, the Bills beat the Chiefs in the regular season. Devastating really.

We just can't beat the Bills when it doesn't matter.

- - -

Listen, all of these things I think are true:

The Bills could absolutely beat the Chiefs in the playoffs. 

Losing this game does take the pressure off the Chiefs from having to go undefeated and can focus on winning in the playoffs. 

I still think the Chiefs get the #1 seed. 

If the Chiefs get the #1 seed and the Bills come to Arrowhead, the Chiefs will be favored by 2.5.

- - -

Betting the Lions to make it to the Super Bowl is the best future bet you can make right now. 

That fact is nuts.

 

Even Chiefs Fans are Villains Now

One thing was different from this week in Vegas compared to the last two years. The treatment I got wearing my Chiefs shirt around.

Someone bumped into me, apologized, then turned saw what I was wearing, then said "You're a Chiefs fan, I'm not sorry."

It wasn't a one off. Other NFL fans were making comments and faces throughout the day. 

I had a waiter at a restaurant tell me he's a 49ers fan and jokingly said that my meal was going to cost triple the price. 

And then throughout the entire Chiefs game, there was a fan who was rooting SO loudly for the Broncos. He kept telling his group how the league is rigged for the Chiefs, how the league wants Mahomes to be undefeated, how every call is bullshit. He was a few feet behind me the whole game.

When the Chiefs turned and blocked the kick to win, I finally turned around to see the guy. In the moment, I didn't know what to say, so I gestured that we should high five to celebrate the Chiefs win. 

The funny thing was that I assumed he was a Broncos fan for 3 hours. But he wasn't. He was wearing Bills clothing. 

And look, I get it. If I was a Bills fan, I would fucking hate the Chiefs too.

Vegas Sportsbook Recap 2024

So I did go to Vegas last weekend and basically came out even. Had some good winners (Jaguars under 17.5 points, Worthy under 2.5 receptions, Chargers -6.5, Bills -4, Eagles -6.5) some bad losers (Saquon over 120 rushing yards, my five team parlays) and some devastating close calls (Lions-3.5 and I would have won $92 if Hopkins had gotten one more reception. He had 3 catches in the first half and only 1 in the second half.)

The DOs and DONTs I wrote last year were pretty spot on, I just chose to do some parlays anyway and of course they didn't pan out.

But it was a ton of fun and coming out even is better than having a terrible day. Here are my pictures from the rest of the weekend.

16oz ribeye at Lago

Quad sevens on a 12x multiplier, winning $75 on a $1.50 machine.

Week 10: Chiefs and Lions are Teams of Destiny

Winners win. Even when they're not having a great day. 

Last year the Chiefs won the Super Bowl with a top defense allowing 17 ppg and an offense scoring 22 ppg. 

This year the Chiefs defense is allowing 17 ppg and the offense is scoring 24 ppg. 

Now KC is really playing with house money. If they lose to the Bills, they're still 9-1 and on track to get the 1 seed. And honestly, it's probably better to get a loss out of the way, let the undefeated season conversation go out the window, and lock in for December and January. 

(Now any other year I would love for KC to go undefeated as it's one of the three ways to do something historic. But this year is all about getting that three-peat.)

Meanwhile in the NFC, the Lions are winning in regulation despite throwing 5 picks. 

National media is running graphics like this:

Of course nothing is guaranteed. 

Ravens and Bills are good. Eagles and Vikings are good. A Ravens-Eagles Super Bowl would not shock anyone. 

But here are the odds to get to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans:

Here are the odds to be the #1 seed:

And here are the odds to win the whole enchilada:

So the Chiefs are slightly more likely than the Lions, but take a look at the teams with shorter odds than 10-1. Chiefs, Lions, Ravens, Bills. Three teams in the AFC. Only one team in the NFC. 

HOPKINS

Week 9: Halfway Home

I got to listen to a podcast this morning hyping up the Ravens and Lions as the best teams in the NFL, talking about how it's going to be a Ravens-Lions Super Bowl. 

And listen, it makes sense. 

Any time you can crown a team based on September and October, it's going to work out! Especially if you can put all your money on a guy like Lamar Jackson who never gets hurt late in the season and always shows up in the playoffs. 💪

And that goes for the Lions too. This team is known for playoff consistency!

- - -

But for real, I do think Chiefs-Lions Super Bowl is really on the table. If it is Lions-Ravens, I will be fucking fired up rooting 100% for the DETROIT LIONS to win their first Super Bowl.

- - -

We're halfway through the season. Let's check out the playoff picture. 

AFC

In: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Texans

Likely In: Steelers

Up In The Air: Colts, Broncos, Chargers, Bengals

Likely Out: none

Crossed Off: Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, Browns, Raiders, Jets, Dolphins

NFC

In: Lions, Commanders, Eagles, Falcons

Likely In: Vikings, Packers

Up In The Air: The NFC West, Bucs

Likely Out: Bears, Cowboys

Crossed Off: Giants, Panthers, Saints

So many teams seem crossed off. In the AFC, really just down to 4 teams looking for two wild-card spots. 

In the NFC There are 6 good teams, 5 bad teams, and the NFC West is totally up for grabs. Then you have the Bucs who were good but have been decimated by injuries. They need Mike Evans back if they have a chance of getting a wild-card spot.