Wednesday, November 04, 2015

Kansas City Royals: World Series Champions

There was a hi-fi in our living room. The speakers were bigger than me. It had a record player that I wasn't allowed to touch. And it received AM/FM broadcasts. It didn't get much use in our house. Perhaps the occasional Bob Seger record. As a six-year-old I used it for two things. 1. I owned one vinyl record: Sesame Country by Sesame Street. 2. I listened to Kansas City baseball games on the radio.

The Royals were the first team I ever followed. Before the Chiefs. Before the Illini. I remember watching Cheers and Royals games on our 27" Hitachi.

I watched players like George Brett and Bo Jackson. But also Willie Wilson, Danny Tartabull, Jim Eisenreich, Mike MacFarlane, Bret Saberhagen, Mark Gubicza, Kevin Appier, and Jeff Montgomery. My favorite player was Frank White. They won some, they lost some. Games were cheap and we went to a bunch of them over the years.

It might have been 1990 or 1988 when I won a drawing contest. It was for the Kansas City Zoo calendar. They selected 12 kids drawings. There were some older kids who represented the animals accurately. I was one of the younger kids who I guess got lucky. I'm not sure how you determine one crappy five-year-old's drawing is better than another's, but I got picked. Part of the prize was tickets to a Royals game. Along with the other winners, I got to go on the field. My name appeared on the large Royals-shaped scoreboard in centerfield. My dad even took a picture of my name in lights. It was all very exciting. I drew a toucan.

- - -

In the 28 baseball seasons from 1986 to 2013, from when I was roughly 2 to 30, here's how many times the Royals finished in each spot in their division:

Sixth: 2 times
Fifth: 9 times
Fourth: 6 times
Third: 8 times
Second: 3 times
First: 0 times

That is good enough for 0 playoff appearances.

Let's go a little deeper.

In those 28 seasons, here's how may times they finished within ranges of Games Back in their division.

0-9 GB: 5 times
10-19 GB: 9 times
20-29 GB: 8 times
30-39 GB: 5 times
40+ GB: 1 time

They were just as likely to finish more than 20 games back as they were less than 20 games back.

- - -

There are die-hard Royals fans. Fans that have stuck through losing season after losing season. I am not one of them. I've never picked another team but it was never worth it to me to watch the Royals play miserably. I've never cared about baseball enough so it wasn't a big deal.

I tried to get into them in 2007. I even live-blogged Alex Gordon's debut. 13 games in they were the worst in the league and finished last in their division.

When they finally made the playoffs in 2014, I was watching. I didn't consider myself a Royals fan, but I was rooting for them. I was hoping, even if I didn't believe in them.

And then one game changed everything. They were down 4 in the 8th. And did what no other team had ever done. It gave them an instant identity to the nation. This is a team that won't quit. That will always believe.

Then they swept the next two series. They made a believer out of most people, including myself. And their season ended with Alex Gordon on 3rd base. 90 feet away from tying up Game 7. Salvador Perez ended their season with a pop-up.

- - -

The Texas Rangers were one strike away from winning it all in 2011. They threw three pitches on that brink. One was a take, that could have been called a strike. The other two were hits, each tying the game. The next year, they lost the 1-game Wild Card. In 2013, they lost in their 163rd game. In 2014, they finished last in their division.

The point is that you can be as close as you can possibly be and then still never get there. While there have been plenty of teams to lose in the World Series and come back to win the following year, there's no guarantee. Getting close gets you nothing.

- - -

Every baseball projection system figured the Royals were a fluke. No one expected the AL Champs to even return to the playoffs. In fact, they improved. At the trade deadline they were buyers. They traded for Ben Zobrist and Johnny Cueto. They won their division. They hosted the Astros in the ALDS.

Down 2-1 in the series, the Royals were on the brink of elimination in the 8th inning. Their win expectancy was 3% in a must-win.

And then they loaded the bases with no outs. Cain singled in a run. Hosmer singled in a run. Morales hit a grounder up the middle that could have been a double play but it hopped over Correa's glove and the game was tied. And Gordon drives in a run to take the lead. The only team to ever come back that many that late in the playoffs? The 2014 Royals.

And in Game 5, Johnny Cueto only allows 2 runs in eight innings. That's why you get Cueto. And the Royals advance to face the Blue Jays.

That series went to six games and the last was the best of all.

All of a sudden, the Royals were in back-to-back World Series.

- - -

World Series Game 1

The World Series opened for Kansas City with an inside-the-park home run. One pitch and it's 1-0 Royals. And that play captured a lot of what the series would offer.

The Royals were aggressive, both for not taking on a pitch in the zone and running on the base paths. And the Mets made a defensive mistake that cost them a run.

Then the Mets' bats made an appearance. They held a 3-1 lead but the Royals came back and tied in 3-3.

In the 8th, the Royals had the comeback momentum, but a rare error by Hosmer cost them a run. The Mets had a 4-3 lead with their closer Familia coming out.

Gordon comes up to bat and the Royals have an 11% chance of winning. If Familia gets the save, I think the series is drastically different. If he gets those last two outs, the Mets would have shown they can be comeback kids too. They would have capitalized on a defensive error. They would have shown that pitching trumps everything. Their closer would have the confidence to attack this lineup. They would have taken Game 1 on the road and at that point have the opportunity to win it all in New York.

All of that was on the line...with a 89% chance of that coming true.

So for my money, that at-bat was the biggest of the Series.




That's the only ball the Royals hit out of the park all series. It showed that the Royal's magic lives on. It showed they didn't have to be afraid of Familia. That if they kept it close, and kept fighting, they could win games that they weren't supposed to win.

- - -

World Series Game 2

Johnny Cueto followed his amazing performance in the ALDS elimination game with a disaster in the ALCS. He was chased in the third inning. No fan knew what to expect from him again. He gave up a run in the top of the 4th and the Royals once again found themselves in a position where they had to come back.

In the bottom of the 5th, the Royals tied it 1-1 with two outs. Hosmer comes up to bat. Going into the 9th inning less than 24 hours ago, he was the goat. He ends up winning the game with a sac fly last night. In the 5th, he hits it up the middle scoring two. With one swing it's now 3-1. The Royals pile on the runs and win 7-1.

Cueto pitches a complete game and only gives up 1 run. That's why you get Cueto.

- - -

World Series Game 3

The series shifted to New York. Syndergaard pitched as well as Harvey did in Game 1, allowing 3 runs to the Royals. The difference was the Mets got to both the Royals' starter (their ace, Ventura) and the bullpen. The final was 9-3 Mets.

At this point each team had won one game going away. There were two more games to be played in New York and two more if necessary in Kansas City. The difference in the series was Game 1, one the Mets were in a position to win.

- - -

World Series Game 4

Once again, the Mets take the lead. It's 3-2 Mets in the top of the 8th. Royals down to a 18% win expectancy. Zobrist earns a walk to get on base. Cain comes up, fouls two off to start in a 0-2 hole. Would foul off two more in the process of taking four balls. He fought for a walk to get two men on. That brings in Familia.

Hosmer at the plate and hits a chopper to Murphy at second base. If he fields it cleanly his only play is to first. There would be two outs and a runner on second and third for Moustakas. But Murphy doesn't field it cleanly. It gets past him into the outfield. Zobrist scores from second and it's a tie game. It was Murphy's offense that helped the Mets get to the World Series but his defense that cost him once they got there.

Moustakas and Perez both single after Hosmer, each driving in a run. It's 5-3 still with one out. Obviously, if there's two outs we don't know that those at-bats happen the same way. But I think it's worth noting that the Murphy error cost them one run. The next two hits off Familia cost them two more.

5-3 is enough to get the Royals out of there, though not before some drama in the bottom of the 9th. Davis started the inning with a 96% chance to win. After getting one out and allowing a runner on first and second, it was down to 82%. One swing of the bat would have won the game for the Mets. Instead, a double play that relied on poor Mets' base running wins the game for the Royals.

Another example that the Mets' strength was pitching and power hitting, not defense or base running.

KC leads the Series 3-1. There's one more in New York. Even if they lose that, they'll have two chances to win it at home.

- - -

World Series Game 5

Harvey vs Volquez, a rematch of Game 1. They tell us it's the first time Harvey's pitched on full rest in a while. And he's great. The Mets get a lead-off home run and right away it looks like the series is headed back to Kansas City. But Volquez settles down and matches Harvey for the next five innings.

In the bottom of the 6th, Volquez loads the bases with no outs. That's the situation the Royals were in against the Astros facing elimination. That time the Royals scored 5 to take the lead. Cespedes is at the plate, the player they Mets acquired and turned their season around. Royals 11% chance of winning at this point.

Cespedes is terribly unlucky and hurts himself severely, fouling a pitch off his kneecap. You hate to see it but it helps the Royals. He pops up and there's 1 down. Duda hits a sac fly to make it a 2-0 game. With two outs, Volquez gets a ground out. Even though the Mets extended their lead, the announcers called it a win for Volquez. I had the sense the Royals could come back from 1 or 2 without too much trouble. 3 or 4 is questionable.

Moustakas gets a hit in the 7th but they strand him. In the 8th, Harvey retires all three batters on 9 pitches. Harvey was pitching too well for the Royals to do anything.

Before the 9th inning, the broadcast shows the Mets manager telling Harvey he's coming out of the game. Harvey is livid. He yells, no way are you taking me out of the game. I was hoping to see Familia. I've seen Familia blow two saves and I just saw Harvey retire the last five batters he faced.

Harvey takes the mound in the 9th.

Broadcasters, columnists are focused on that decision. Should he have stayed on the mound or come out of the game. But that's not what won or lost the game. They had a 94% chance to win at this point.

Cain comes up and takes the first three pitches and finds himself in 1-2 hole. Takes another: 2-2. Fouls one off. Takes another: full count. The next pitch is a curve over the plate. Cain takes it. It's low. Cain's on first. On the next pitch he steals second. Cain's taken the Royals from a 6% chance to win to 15%. On the next pitch Cain scores. Hosmer cracks a double to the left field warning track. It's a 1-2 game with no outs. 35% chance of winning. Harvey comes out now. In comes Familia, who's already blown two saves this series.

Moustakas hits a grounder to the right side, advancing Hosmer to third base. 90 feet away. One out.

Up comes Perez. It's a broken bat, weak shot the left side of the infield. David Wright fields it, checks Hosmer at third and fires to first for the second out of the 9th inning. On Wright's release, Hosmer goes for home. Duda catches and turns the ball for home. A play at the plate to win the game. But the throw is terrible. High and wide, to the wrong side of the plate. Hosmer should have been out before he begins he slide but he scores easily. Once again this team stays aggressive and the other team makes a mistake. When it happens once or twice you can say they got lucky. When it happens game after game, series after series, you see a team making their own luck.

According to Baseball Reference, the Royals still only had a 40% chance of winning with a 2-2 game in the top of the 9th, with no one on and two outs. But you show me a Royals fan who didn't think it was twice that.



We go to the 12th inning. Perez starts it off with a bloop single down the right line that falls a foot fair. I think they can't take out Perez because he's so important defensively, but Yost does. In comes Dyson. He steals second on a 2-0 count and it's not close. That's what speed do. Puts him in scoring position and takes away the double play. Gordon hits one to the right side advancing Dyson to third. 90 feet away.

With one out I look at the screen and see the batter. I say out loud, "Who the hell is that?" Who the hell is that is Christian Colon. His last at bat was October 4th. It's November 1st.

His first appearance in the postseason is with a chance to take the lead in the 12th of a World Series elimination game. He takes a strike. He swings and misses. He takes a ball. And on 1-2 count, he cracks it into left field. The 3-2 lead says 85% chance of winning.

Escobar makes it 4-2. Cain makes it 7-2. It says 100% chance of winning. You and I know that really means 99.5 or above. Turns out to be 100%.

Davis gets the first two batters and allows a single. Then he gets to a 1-2 count. At the Power and Light district in downtown Kansas City, they're chanting "one more strike, one more strike." They get it. It's a called third strike and the game is over. The series is over. The season is over. A 30-year-wait is over.

It's time to party like it's 1985.

- - -

The Royals became the first team with 3 wins in the World Series after trailing in the 8th or later.

From the 6th inning on, here's how many runs the teams scored:

ALDS: Royals 14, Astros 6.
ALCS: Royals 22, Blue Jays 5.
WS: Royals 21, Mets 3.

That's 57-14 over 16 playoff games. They won 11.

KC broke a record with 6 postseason wins in which they trailed by multiple runs. And then they extended it with a 7th win in the clincher.

This is their trademark. This is what they do.




- - -

Eric Hosmer published a piece on The Player's Tribune on October 12th. It's a very impressive read with one main takeaway: The 2015 Royals aren't just playing for 2015. They're playing for 2014. They don't want to be considered a fluke, just a team that stumbled their way farther than anyone expected and then disappeared. No one remembers or respects those teams.

The 2012 Detroit Tigers swept the Yankees in the ALCS but got swept in the WS by the Giants.
The Rex Grossman Bears made it to the Super Bowl but lost to Peyton's Colts.
The Dwight Howard Magic made it to the Finals but lost to the Lakers.

Making it to the Finals in any sport is an incredible achievement, but if you don't finish it off, it's almost as if it didn't happen.

These Royals just became the best Kansas City baseball team ever and won the 2015 trophy. But they also redeemed the 2014 Royals.

This World Series was about redemption as much as anything.

Last year ended with Alex Gordon 90 feet away. His clutch home run in the bottom of the 9th in Game 1 changed the whole series.

The guy that ended it last year at the plate was Perez. This year he started the winning rally in the 12th and was awarded Series MVP.

In the regular season and the ALCS, Cueto was not the guy the Royals traded for. But he was the man in the ALDS elimination game and WS Game 2.

Moustakas and Hosmer both made fielding errors in the World Series but came through with big hits and timely running.

Even Yost who was a national punchline in 2014 has the last laugh in 2015.

For the last thirty years, no one has believed in the Kansas City Royals. But the players believed. And now everyone does.

Going back to the Hosmer article. I assume he wrote it before the playoffs started. But it was posted to the Player's Tribune at 7:03 am on October 12th. At that moment the Royals were down 1-2 to the Astros. If they lose that game, Hosmer looks like a joke. Everyone would just say the Royals were a fluke. They find themselves down four runs in the 8th and everyone, including the die-hard fans thinks the season is over. But the players don't.

Moustakas riles everyone up in the dugout. He's yelling at them, "We're not losing this game."

- - -

Life is full of moments that happen sequentially. Especially sports.

A player fumbles on a 3rd and 1 and loses the game. But that doesn't happen if they picked up one more yard on the previous play and are passing on first down.

A manager is using his closer in the bottom of the 9th because they got the lead in the top of the inning.

Every sport is full of moments that may not have happened the same way if previous outcomes were different. This is obvious and taken for granted.

Which is why myself and other Royals fans go back to that wild-card game against the A's. It looked like that was the end of the 2014 Royals season. No playoff wins.

If that's the case, no one knows what happens in 2015. Maybe they're not buyers at the deadline. Maybe they miss the playoffs completely or maybe they don't comeback agains the Astros. No one knows for sure. But I can tell you, I don't think they're champions this year if they don't go through last year.

- - -

Perhaps the most beautiful thing now is that next year doesn't matter.

I know the players will want to win again. The front office will want to keep making moves to preserve a future. But from my vantage point, they've climbed the mountain. Yes, it would be fun to stay there. But once you've climbed it, you've reached the top. There's no where else to go.

Just do it? You've done it.

This is something that can never be taken away.

Cueto and Zobrist and maybe more will go to another team. Odds are they won't repeat. But they are already forever royalty. George Brett is a champion for life because of winning one World Series 30 years ago. They still show his face on TV. He reached a level that few people ever do. And this roster just did the same.

Every player on the roster, every pitcher, every pinch hitter, even the backup catcher played.

They never have to achieve anything more and they'll still always be champions.

- - -

For me personally, there's still some internal conflict. This wasn't the Chiefs or the Illini or even the Avs. It's not a team that I've lived and died and with. The Royals were miserable and I walked away. I stopped watching when they were bad. I never gave them the chance to rip my heart out with a 38-31 playoff loss to the 2003 Colts. Or a 44-45 playoff loss to the 2013 Colts. I didn't walk out of the K with my head held low like I've done at Memorial Stadium, the Pepsi Center or the Edwards Jones Dome.

The bottom line is I haven't suffered for the Royals.

It's been a long stretch of apathy followed by a burst of exhilaration. The authentic sports fan in me understands the greater the suffering, the greater the catharsis. If I ever see the Chiefs win a Super Bowl (or hey, maybe even a playoff game for once would be nice too) it would be a bigger emotional impact. Just typing that sentence made me nervous inside because I imagined them getting to the Super Bowl and losing.

So I can't claim that I was always there for the Royals. Truthfully, there were so bad for my entire life that this moment is never even one that I dreamed of. In the same way that I've never dreamed of winning the lottery because it never seemed possible.

And now that it's here, that one of the most exciting playoff runs ever just fell into my lap, I almost feel guilty. I gave the Royals no suffering and they gave me intense joy. It almost doesn't seem fair. But you know what? I'll take it.










1 comment:

  1. Well written. I saw the scores and saw things on Twitter, but I didn't even read game recaps. Thanks for keeping me up to date.

    ReplyDelete