Monday, November 27, 2023

Week 12: Home Stretch

If the Bills had won, the headline would have been about how important it is to make mid-season changes. 

The Steelers fire Matt Canada and beat the Bengals. 
The Bills fire Ken Dorsey and beat the Eagles. 

That's how easy it is. Switch OC in the middle of the season and your season is saved. 

But instead Jake Elliot made a 59-yard field goal in the rain. 

So that's not the headline. The story is that the Bengals without Burrow suck and the Bills are in danger of missing the playoffs just like Cincinnati. 

- - -

7 of our 8 division winners are essentially decided, confirmed by being heavy favorites on FanDuel. 

The one race that's not is Falcons-Saints. 

Of the other 7, the two that are the most up for grabs are Lions being -550 to win the NFC North and Ravens being -270 to win the AFC North. (Compared with lines like Chiefs -4000 and 49ers -3000)

Quick update of the division winners with Calcutta owners:

Dolphins - Kirat
Ravens - Kirat
Jaguars - Dave
Chiefs - Kirat

Eagles - Matt
Lions - Mark
49ers - Dave
Falcons - Dave or Saints - Mark

Kirat is in a pretty good spot to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. 

If I had to pick 3 AFC wild-card teams today, I would pick Steelers, Texans and ... Colts based on their schedule down the stretch. 

If I had to pick 3 NFC wild-card teams today, I would pick Cowboys, Vikings and ... Packers based on their schedule. The Seahawks are better than the Packers but Seattle's schedule is so, so difficult. 

If Falcons win their division and my wild-card teams are correct, then I'll have 6 of my 8 Calcutta teams in the playoffs, owning 43% of the playoff field in a 4-man competition. Of course, the Packers are a big stretch right now, the Steelers could easily miss, the Saints could overtake the Falcons, and just like that I've got 3 teams, 21% of the field. So who knows. 

I don't love that the Eagles keep winning and have the track to own the bye and homefield, a huge advantage over my 49ers. This week they play each other, so if SF wants to fight for the bye, this is a must-win.

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