Tuesday, February 09, 2010

XLIV: Part Two

It's funny how this sporting event has come to mean so much.

This is the 44th NFL season that has ended in a Super Bowl. Yet this was the conclusion of the 90th NFL season. Somehow those first 46 don't seem to matter much anymore.

A quick timeline.

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The 1966 NFL season was the 47th season. With the addition of the Atlanta Falcons, there were now 15 teams, split into two conferences. (Eastern and Western). In the NFL Championship, Green Bay beat Dallas by 7. And two weeks later, beat the AFL Champs, the Kansas City Chiefs.

The 1967 NFL season introduced the New Orleans Saints.

1968 concluded with the AFL's Jets beating the NFL's Colts. Tickets for this game were still printed with the AFL-NFL World Championship name. However, as evidenced by this article, Lamar Hunt's name of the Super Bowl had caught on.

Following the 1969 season, the Chiefs won the first game officially titled the Super Bowl. This was the 50th season of the NFL. Though the Chiefs weren't one of the 16 teams in the NFL.


The 1970 season brought the AFL-NFL merger. 10 AFL teams were added to the existing 16 NFL. The Colts, Browns and Steelers were the 3 NFL teams that were placed in the newly formed AFC. Super Bowl V was the first year that the Super Bowl and the NFL Championship were the same game. A common NFL draft was created, ending the bidding war on college players between the leagues.

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I think all of this is terribly interesting. For 50 years the NFL never had more had than 20 teams, and then all of a sudden went from 16 to 26. Not that far from the 32 we have 40 years later. It's funny that the Chiefs can lay claim to a modern-NFL championship, despite not being in the NFL that year.

And the fact that the Super Bowl has been played for 44 years and the Saints have played 43 seasons.

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I think it's worth noting that, with the exception of Lombardi's Packers, pre-1966 championships are essentially forgotten. No one on the Detroit Lions cares about the 4 NFL titles they won, even as recently as 1957, just because it wasn't a Super Bowl. (That one was against the Browns anyways, so it at least looks like a NFC-AFC matchup today). And the Bills certainly aren't taking any solace in their AFL titles.

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So now that we've established that the Super Bowl is the most important thing in the history of the world, and that finally a Super Bowl beat out M*A*S*H as the most watched TV program, let's talk about XLIV. Or as I call it, "X-live!" (Don't call it that.)

First, to get our bearings, I'll provide a brief list of how each possession ended, color-coded.

Punt
38-yard field goal
Punt
Garcon TD
46-yard field goal
Punt
Turnover on downs
Punt
44-yard field goal
- - - Halftime
Thomas TD
Addai TD
47-yard field goal
Missed 51-yard field goal
Shockey TD (Moore 2pt)
Pick Six
Turnover on downs
Victory Formation

That's it. The Colts had 4 first half possessions, one was a three and out from starting on their own 1. By the time they got to their 7th possession, they were down 7 with 5 minutes to go in the game.

The pick-six was the play that sealed the Saints' victory. So let's start by looking at everything up until that drive, so we can see how we got there.

Of those first six drives: three were scores--two touchdowns and a field goal. One was a missed field goal. One was a punt after a Garcon drop. And one was a punt after taking over on their 1.

It really doesn't sound that bad.

A lot has been made of the Garcon drop on the Colt's third drive. At this point the Colts are up 10-3, 8 to go in the 2nd quarter, and the Saints have the ball on their own 28.

Yes it's a drop that hurts the Colts, but they still had the upper hand. Sure it's possible the Colts could have keep driving and scored a field goal or a touchdown. And yes, a touchdown on this drive puts the Colts up 17-3 in the first half. But the Saints had drops on their first two drives and got down 10-0. The Garcon drop was not the deciding play of the game.

Saints ball, 4th and 1, 1:55 remaining, down 10-3. Payton says go for it. Conventional wisdom would say kick for it in the first half. "Take the points." Announcers are quick to blame a coach for a decision like this that doesn't succeed. And it doesn't. The Saints have a 6-minute, 70 yard drive that results in nothing, and it seems as though Indy has all the momentum.

But up 7 and pinned on their own 1, the Colts don't execute a two-minute offense. They play conservative and try to run out the clock. Indy even runs on 3rd and 1, when the Saints were overplaying the run. The Saints call two timeouts while the Colts have the ball and end up getting it back at midfield with 35 seconds to go.

But against prevent defense, it's easy for Brees to get into field goal range and they get 3 points at the end of the half. Saints down 4.

Now think about if the Saints kick a field goal on 4th down. It's 10-6, but now Peyton gets the ball (probably around the 20) and they likely go into a two-minute offense only up 4. The way the Colts had been moving the ball, 3 or 7 points is likely. Could have been 17-6 if the Saints kick on 4th down.

But what if the Saints had scored a touchdown? They would have tied it at 10. Now it's impossible to say the result of the next Colts drive with 1:55 remaining. But they had scored on 2 of 3 drives so far, it's not a stretch to think that Peyton gets a touchdown there, making it 17-10.

What actually happened, pinning the Colts on their own 1, and scoring on the last possession of the first half, may actually have been a better result than scoring a touchdown. Counter-intuitive, sure, but the Saints effectively took away a Colts drive, keeping their score at 10. This gutsy call worked even when they got stuffed.

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Speaking of taking away a Colts drive, the Saints opened the 2nd half in the riskiest way possible. Now there have been knee-jerk reactions that it wasn't risky because they practiced it and Payton was quoted as saying "we felt 60-70% confident we could get it." Modern sportswriters love to poke holes in conventional wisdom. (I am no different). In this instance, I'm calling bullshit. It was risky. And despite was Simmons tells you, it did fool the Colts. Baskett was lined up all the way on the left on the Saints 45 before the kick. By the time the ball is headed toward him, he's retreated to the 50. He has to turn and run back to the 45 and that's where it bounces off of him. (I'm not blaming him per se. The special teams coach, in the two weeks before playing Payton's Saints, should have been prepared for some sort of fake punt, field goal or onside kick.)

Once the Saints score on that drive, they've had 6 possessions, scoring on three of them. The Colts have had 4, but effectively 3 if you discount how they started on their own 1. The Colts were more efficient, but had 2/3 less possessions.

Case in point, even after the Saints scored, the Colts came back and retook the lead 17-13. The Colts defense held them to a field goal, and Indy had the lead at the start of the fourth 17-16, despite the difference in possessions.

With 12 minutes to go, Indy had the ball on the Saints' 32 up by one. Addai for 2. Screen to Collie for -3. Now it's 3rd and 11 from the 33. You have to be thinking about 4th down. Are you in 4th down territory? Can you kick a field goal from here? Is it better to get some yards to get up your kicker/4th down attempt?

Whoever calls the plays went for the first down, incomplete deep pass. And now you're left with a 4th and 11 or a 51-yard field goal. Neither one is a great option. They choose the field goal.

As I see this, I open my mouth, "They're going to kick a 51-yard field goal, on grass, with a 42-year old kicker? No way! He's going to shank this left! He'll shank it left."

Stover kicks it and it has the distance, and it looks good, but at the last second it shanks left.

Quick aside: If you've ever watched a football game with me, you know that anytime the team I'm rooting for is defending a field goal, I shout that kicker will shank it. Sometimes I've switched it up and said he'll push it to the right, but for 10 years I've been yelling SHANK at the tv. I think this is the first time it's ever actually happened. But my wife and her parents were pretty impressed that I called it exactly right.

The missed kick sets up the Saints on their own 41. The ensuing drive included six straight pass attempts by Brees and six straight completions. The longest was 9 yards. That's remarkable. And then Brees gets it to Shockey on the goal line and Lance Moore for two. In slow-motion it looks like an absolute conversion, in real-time it looks like an incomplete pass. Call could have gone either way and I was actually surprised that they overturned it, just because I thought you'd have to stick with the call on the field.

And than there's the pick six. Porter made a break on the ball and I suppose Wayne could have been there better, it's Manning who has to not throw it there. Could have been a big play if Peyton fakes it to that spot and hits Wayne over the top. As for the clipping, the Saints would have still had the ball at midfield with 3 minutes left. There would have been more drama, but the damage was done.

Actually, let's look at what Manning sees.


There are 4 Colt receivers and 5 Saint defenders in coverage. There are 6 Colt blockers and 6 Saints blitzing. The Colts picked it up well and gave Peyton enough time to get it off, although he's aware of the blitz and knows he has to throw it quickly. This is the moment that Peyton has his arm back to throw.

His receiver on the right seems open in man coverage. Clark has his man beat over the middle but there is one safety. His slot left receiver is open for short yardage, but it's 3rd and 5 and he's not deep enough yet. And there's Wayne on the left who's just put on the brakes, with his back still to Manning. If they had a stop and go called Wayne could have gotten by him for a big play. But Porter is in good position and sees Manning throwing right in front of him.

So my conclusion is that the Garcon drop hurt a little, the Manning interception was the killer, but what really determined this game was Sean Payton's calls to go for the fourth down and do the onside kick.

Oh and the Colts are 2-0 in Super Bowls wearing white, and now 0-2 when they wear blue. So that hurt.

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Despite the Colts seeming to be more efficient up until the pick-six, I am not saying the Colts were the better team. The better team won. The Saints had better coaching and came up with the big plays when they needed them.

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For a while, I've had this worry, that "what happens when your team wins it all?" Then what? Is it really worth all the blood and tears (mostly tears) I put into watching the Chiefs?

Back when the White Sox were in the Series and I had just moved to Chicago, I rooted for them to win it all. Mostly for Matt's sake. But when it happened, I didn't feel anything inside. I didn't care at all.

As I previously covered, I married into having a second NFL team. So there I was on Sunday, rooting for the Saints. And when they won and I saw the silver trophy being touched by all the players, I felt a glimpse of what that might feel like as a fan. And it was good.

It's something that can never be taken away from the Saints. And even though I can't buy a t-shirt or brag about it, it was a nice thing to feel. Even once removed.

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One last story from Super Sunday. Brit's dad, Joe, came to watch the game wearing 4 layers of Saints t-shirts and a hoodie, plus a hat. And when they were down 10-0, he said it was time to make a strategic clothing change.

Some of the Saints shirts were recent Christmas presents from Brittany and I. But he was also wearing one shirt and hat that dating way back, to the era when they couldn't win a game and when fans wore paper bags on their heads. When they were called the Aints.

He took off the old hat and old shirt and said they were just remnants from an era of losing. And of course, as soon as he did, the Saints outscored the Colts 31-7 and won their first Super Bowl.

The Aints are just history now. Laissez les bon temps roulez!

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