A team like the Chiefs needs to take care of the teams they're supposed to beat, because there are going to be some games where they're not supposed to win.
It goes back to Vermeil's plan to go 12-4. Win your 8 home games and 4 of your road games. Well, so far the Chiefs are 4-0 at home and 1-2 on the road. They might not seem like a 12-4 team, but we're sticking to the plan.
Here's the remaining schedule...
Home: Cardinals, Broncos, Titans, Raiders
I'll be at the Cardinals game. The Titans game looks the toughest but it will be week 16, and who knows how their QB will be doing. And the Raiders are 4-4 now, but by week 17? And if it's a game that decides the division, I like the Chiefs chances at home. 4-0 is a possibility here, but even 3-1 seems reasonable.
Away: Raiders, Broncos, Seahawks, Chargers, Rams
After the Chargers, playing at Qwest field is the one that scares me the most. And even though the Broncos are a mess, the Chiefs have historically had a hard time at Denver. Which means, if the Chiefs want to scrape together 4 road wins, it starts next week in Oakland.
If they can beat the Raiders and the Rams, that's 3 road wins. Add in 8-0 at home, that's 11-5. I'd take that in a heartbeat.
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Through the first 58 minutes of this game I kept thinking, "This is a game that the Chiefs should win." Not as in we should have because we got screwed by a bad call, but as in we are pounding the ball on offense and have shut down Fitzpatrick.
More directly: the Chiefs ran for 274 yards. Also, you could basically add Charles' 61 receiving yards, since he did all the work. When you are moving the ball at will, over 6.1 yards a carry, and having a good defensive day, and are +1 in turnovers, you SHOULD NOT LOSE.
The Chiefs did pull it out, but it was back and forth so much that no one knew how this was going to end.
And I'll show you what I mean. First, here's some context. This is a normal game, the Patriots over the Vikings. The Vikings started out in the lead, than the Pats took over. Here's the Chiefs-Bills game.
Also, you can see that the Bills went from a 44% chance of winning to a 52% chance of winning after they sacked Cassel in the 2nd quarter.
So how did this get to be a close game at the end?
First Chiefs drive: 3rd and 8 from the BUF 33. An incomplete pass followed by a punt into the endzone. I've heard Haley's stance on 4th down calls--he makes his mind up early on the drive so the playcalling can support it. My take on this one, if you weren't confident kicking from their 33, try and get some more yards. Instead a net of 13 on on the punt.
2nd quarter: 3rd and 3 from the BUF 20, still scoreless. Jones gets 1 yard on 3rd down, bringing up a 4th and 2. So here's what Haley is talking about. They ran on 3rd down, planning on going for it on 4th down. But it's the 2nd quarter and there's still no score. And it's not like it's 4th and goal from the 1. From the 20, even if we pick up the first down, a touchdown is not certain. And when running is a strength and passing is a weakness, we dial up a pass play on 4th and 2. Cassel's sacked.
Chiefs do get a touchdown before halftime on a 6-play, 71-yard drive. Charles took over, getting 67 yards on 4 plays.
Halftime: Chiefs 7, Bills 0.
Second half goes: Bills FG, Chiefs punt, Bills punt, Chiefs FG. Due to long drives, the ensuing Bills' possession is late in the 4th.
With 4 minutes left it was ruled on the field that the Chiefs recovered a Lee Evans fumble on the KC 13. But Vrabel's elbow touched out of bounds before he had control, so Buffalo retains possession after the challenge.
At the two-minute warning, it's tied at 10, but the Chiefs have the ball for a 2nd and 3 at their own 27. At this point I'm feeling good about driving down the field and getting a Succop field goal. Two plays later, the Chiefs punt and Buffalo returns it to their own 48. And I'm feeling bad.
Under a minute remaining, the Bill have it at the KC 41. And Fitzpatrick gets some bad luck, the ball slips out of his hand, possibly on a pump fake, and it floats right to Eric Berry. Chiefs takeover and we're headed to OT.
After one play, the Bills move to the KC 43, but end up punting from the KC 40.
Chiefs take over and it's Charles for 10 and Charles for 13. At this point I'm yelling "pound the ball" and feeling good. Then it's Jones for 3, incomplete, Cassel for 5 and a punt.
Then Fitzpatrick hits a couple passes and from the KC 37 just overthrows a wide open CJ Spiller in the endzone. The Bills settle for a field goal attempt from the KC 34. Lindell kicks the 53-yarder up and through the uprights. But not so fast! Haley called timeout! On the second attempt, it's a knuckler that starts out low. I thought it would be short, but it had the distance. It just ends up bending to hit the right upright. Haley looks like a genius.
After a pass to Moeaki and some more solid runs by Charles the Chiefs advance to the BUF 21. Out comes Succop (who is 10/11 lifetime from 30-39) and it starts out right down the middle...and hooks left at the last second. He can't believe it. (Gus Johnson, "He hooked it! HOLY MACKEREL!")
And now the Bills have it with under 4 minutes to go, and I'm thinking I just watched 4 hours of football and the best case scenario is a 10-10 tie.
The get down to the KC 42 and I'm thinking here we go again. But Hali forced intentional grounding and the Chiefs get the ball back with 1:13 to go.
And wouldn't you know, out comes Super Matt Cassel. 16-yard pass to Charles, incomplete out of bounds to stop the clock, 18-yard pass to Moeaki (Bills penalty, declined but stopped the clock, 11-yard pass to Moeaki, spike at the BUF 24 with 21 seconds left. Charles runs for 8 and they spike it again with 5 seconds left. Cassel was 3 for 3 on intended passes, setting up a 35-yard attempt for Succop.
From the right hash...it starts out wide right...and then at the last second it hooks left, right down the middle. It's over. The Chiefs are 5-2, the Bills 0-7.
- - -
Yes, it was quite windy out there. So those two-field goal opportunities in the first half were not sure things. And I like an aggressive coach who goes for touchdowns inside the 5, and in general going for in on 4th and short, especially when you're just outside field goal territory. But in a scoreless game, I'm taking the 3-point try from the 20-yard line.
But Haley made it for up with the icing the kicker timeout. There's really no reason why it should work. Lindell could have just as easily missed the first attempt, gotten a second chance and nailed it. But he didn't. And that timeout saved the game. So I'll just say these last two paragraphs cancel each other out, and I'm glad KC is walking away with the W.
- - -
And I didn't even mention that on the Bills' first drive of the game, and the Bills' last drive of the game, Derrick Johnson had a pass hit him in the hands. This happens all the time. The first one would have been a pick-six and changed the game completely.
- - -
Time for some game balls.
#3: Accepting on behalf of special teams, Ryan Succop
Hits the game-winner in heavy wind. Would have been nice had he made the first one, but he's a good kicker and these things happen. Glad we got him a second chance. Really glad he nailed it.
#2: Accepting on behalf of the defense, Tamba Hali
(There wasn't a picture of Hali. Good picture for the defense though.)An all-around good day for the defense. Allowing only 10-points will only help their top-5 defensive rankings. On a team with 14 sacks this year (middle of the pack), Hali has 7 and is 4th in the league. He was Herm's first draft pick and seemed to be a mediocre DE in the 4-3. Once the Chiefs moved to a 3-4 with Haley, a lot of people thought Hali didn't have a future. But he's thrived in the 3-4 and has been the only consistent pass rusher. The Chiefs defense really shut down the Bills, who last week put up 34 on the Ravens.
#1: Accepting on behalf of the offense, Jamal Charles
He had 22 rushes for 177. That's...wait for it...over 8 yards a carry. What makes it really special is the only long rush he had was a 32-yarder. Which means that every time he touched the ball, he really was running for 10 here, 11 there. Add in 4 receptions for 61, and today he was the offense.
22 is a good number of carries, so I can't say they didn't use him well enough. But when he has such a good day, you'd think Weis and Cassel should be able to dial up more than 13 points. And you'd think that with such a good day, you wouldn't be one timeout away from losing.
The Chiefs are far away the #1 rushing team at 190/game. The next closest? The Raiders at 168.
He leads all running backs with 6.5/carry on the season. I think he's only behind Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson for who you'd want on your team. And at 4.1 and 4.9 respectively, Charles has been better this year.
Here's the list of best seasons for yards/carry, and it's topped with quarterbacks and old-timers.
For halfbacks in the modern era, the benchmark would seem to be Mercury Morris with 6.4 in 1973, and then Barry Sanders with 6.1 in 1997. So he's on pace to set a single-season record, depending on how you qualify it.
And for fun, here are some career numbers:
Jim Brown 5.2
Barry Sanders 5.0
Gale Sayers 5.0
Chris Johnson 5.0
Peterson 4.9
OJ Simpson 4.7
Through the first 3 years of his career, Charles is at 5.8.
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