i could've been a contender

So one thing that I thought about with the Chiefs over the last couple years, particularly in 2005 when they missed the playoffs at 10-6, and in 2006 and 2010 when they lost in the wild-card round...is that it's not really enough to just make the playoffs--you need a Super Bowl contender.

Take the Raiders this year. They're only one game out of the division. But even if they won the division and hosted a playoff game...they're not winning the Super Bowl this year. So what's the point of getting all excited about making in to the playoffs? But then you have teams like the Packers who win the Super Bowl as the 6th seed and the Cardinals that win the World Series as a wild-card. So you have evidence that all you need to do is make into the playoffs and anything can happen.

So which is it?

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What made me think of this? The Avs are currently 12th in the conference. They've played 30 games. If they had won 3 more, they'd be 8th in the conference and in the playoffs. So I've been eyeing that line and hoping they could win enough to get to that 8th spot. But should I be? Is getting in the playoffs with a mediocre team enough? Or to win a championship, do you have to have one of the best teams?

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Going back for the last ten years, here are the regular season records for the Cup winners:

2011: Bruins (7th best record in NHL)
2010: Blackhawks (3rd)
2009: Penguins (8th)
2008: Red Wings (1st)
2007: Ducks (4th)
2006: Hurricanes (4th)
2004: Lightning (2nd)
2003: Devils (4th)
2002: Red Wings (1st)
2001: Avalanche (1st)

I think this is pretty revealing. For seven seasons, the Cup winner had a top-4 record in the league. Over the last three years, it's expanded, but not by much. The Bruins were a 3-seed and the Penguins were a 4-seed.

So in modern hockey, in a league where SIXTEEN teams get in the playoffs, you still have to be a top team to win it all. I suppose the 7-game series nature helps that quite a bit.

So what about other sports?

NFL 

2010: Packers (8th best) [They were a 6-seed but 10-6, while the 4-seed Seahawks were 7-9.]
2009: Saints (2nd)
2008: Steelers (5th)
2007: Giants (8th)
2006: Colts (4th)
2005: Steelers (9th)
2004: Patriots (2nd)
2003: Patriots (1st)
2002: Bucs (3rd)
2001: Patriots (7th)

Considering only 12 teams make it in, the fact that 4 of the last 10 NFL Champions were 7th best or lower does suggest that the NFL playoffs are more wide open than the NHL playoffs. Though it should be noted when we've had 6-seed winners, they were still in the top 9 in the league.

MLB

2011: Cardinals (8th best)
2010: Giants (5th)
2009: Yankees (1st)
2008: Phillies (5th)
2007: Red Sox (2nd)
2006: Cardinals (13th) [Won a 6-team division with a 83-78 record. Only played 161 games due to a rainout that was never made up because it didn't matter.]
2005: White Sox (2nd)
2004: Red Sox (3rd)
2003: Marlins (7th)
2002: Angels (4th)

There's just as many winners from outside the top-4 teams as from the top-4. Considering only 8 teams get in, I'd say it's reasonable for a fan to just hope their team makes the postseason.


NBA

2011: Mavericks (5th)
2010: Lakers (2nd)
2009: Lakers (2nd)
2008: Celtics (1st)
2007: Spurs (5th)
2006: Heat (4th)
2005: Spurs (3rd)
2004: Pistons (6th)
2003: Spurs (1st)
2002: Lakers (3rd)

Much like the NHL, it's not enough to sneak into the playoffs. You need to be a top-5 team in the league during the regular season. So come the 2012 NBA playoffs, we should look at the top 5 teams and be able to cross off the other contenders.

Of note: The Cavs with and without LeBron. I didn't realize how good their regular season records were since they never won a title.

2009: 1st in the NBA
2010: 1st in the NBA
2011: 29th in the NBA

Also of note: From 1980-2010, there were 31 NBA Champions. They were distributed among 8 franchises: Lakers, Celtics, 76ers, Pistons, Bulls, Rockets, Spurs, Heat. The 2011 Mavericks make it 9 franchises out of 32 titles.

In other words, of all the NBA fans born since 1976, only one-third of them has seen their team win a championship. 

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So to get back to the original question. The Avs currently have the 25th best record in the NHL. Right now the 8th seed in the West is the Sharks with the 14th best record. I guess I should stop hoping they sneak up to the 14th best record, and hope they rebuild enough to be a top-5 team.