On the top we have the values I originally created. By Friday I had identified some problems and wrote about them. I tried a band-aid fix by creating alternate values. I think it's in improvement, but the whole thing is still screwed up.
I had an idea that I thought might help...which is each round is worth points, plus you get a bonus for seed differential versus chalk. The first round is obvious. A good exmaple of what I mean is this year's Tennessee-Mercer game. Penciling in a 11seed Tennessee to get to the Sweet 16 is bold. You shouldn't get punished that Mercer beat Duke. So it would consider Tennessee round of 32 game to be a 11-3, for an 8-point differential.
The problem with this is still that the relative values are messed up. 12 over 5 is way over valued, especially compared to 13 over 4.
The more I thought about it, the current system really kills the value of a 1 seed. Is it really worth three times more to advance a 3 to the Sweet 16 than a 1?
Then I had another thought, borrowing from NFL Calcutta...
What if instead of using the actual numbers of the seeds, what if I grouped them into seed values.
Thinking out loud here...
1-4 is worth 1pt
5-8 is worth 3pts
9-12 is worth 5pts
13-14 is worth 7 pts
15-16 is worth 10pts
Something like that.
Even if the values aren't perfect, it's making more sense to me. But...I see a problem already. Picking a 8/9 to make the Sweet 16 should be worth 5 times as much as picking a 1. But picking the 8/9 first game shouldn't be worth that much.
To get really precise, you would need to arrange seed values that are based on round...
This is getting out of hand.
You're really into this, huh?
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