Friday, September 11, 2015

Man vs Machine: 2015 NFL Predictions vs Five Thirty Eight [A Modern Day John Henry]

On September 5th, I made my team-by-team NFL predictions.

A few days later, FiveThirtyEight released their own, based on ELO ratings.

Since their link will be updated throughout the season, I'm posting their original numbers (I found a cached version before the Patriots' win over the Steelers on Thursday night) below. I will do standard rounding on their predictions.

Five Thirty Eight Original 2015 NFL Predictions

AFC East
Patriots 11-5
Bills 9-7
Dolphins 8-8
Jets 7-9

AFC North
Ravens 9-7
Steelers 9-7
Bengals 8-8
Browns 6-10

AFC South
Colts 10-6
Texans 9-7
Titans 5-11
Jags 5-11

AFC West
Broncos 10-6
Chiefs 8-8
Chargers 8-8
Raiders 5-11

NFC East
Cowboys 10-6
Eagles 9-7
Giants 8-8
Washington 5-11

NFC North
Packers 10-6
Lions 9-7
Vikings 7-9
Bears 6-10

NFC South
Panthers 9-7
Saints 8-8
Falcons 8-8
Bus 6-10

NFC West
Seahawks 11-5
Cardinals 8-8
49ers 8-8
Rams 7-9






I think it would be interesting to calculate both:
1. Total number of games actual vs predicted
2. Number of teams closer

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