I tend not to write about politics very often because I don't usually see the point. When I do, it's certainly not to change anyone else's mind. I'm much more selfish. My reasons are 1) to sort through all the thoughts in my head 2) to serve as a time capsule that I can look back on in the future.
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So here are we are once again.
The nation has to decide who they think will be a better president: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump? The truth is, we don't really know. We think we have a good idea based on what we know about them already--we feel that we know who's better--but until it's happened we won't know.
But will we know after it's happened?
No. Not as a national consensus.
The average approval rating for all presidents is 53%.
In June 2016, Obama's approval rating was 53%.
But let's go deeper.
His approval rating by Democrats is 90%.
His approval rating by Independents is 46%.
His approval rating by Republicans is 10%.
You would think the status of the country is something that would have more consensus, either things are going pretty well or they aren't. But no, your opinion of the country right now is heavily, heavily based on what party you prefer.
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The differences in the party's outlook is clear from the conventions. Republicans want to Make America Great Again, convinced that things must not be going very well. Democrats are making the argument that things are pretty good and we should keep things on course.
Today, Trump said Obama will go down as one of the worst presidents in history.
Obama has been ranked by historians twice so far, 15th in 2009 and 18th in 2015.
(In case you're curious, rankings while president for Reagan, Bush 41, and Clinton held very steady. Rankings for Bush 43 dropped between 2005 and 2008 while still in office.)
I think the discrepancy between how both parties view Obama is telling. How can we as a nation judge presidencies that haven't happened yet, when we can't agree on where we're at right now? The answer is we can't. I expect future approval ratings to mirror the 90/10 party split no matter who is in power.
It's like if you have a group of vegetarians and a group of pepperoni lovers and you expect them to share one pizza. They want different things, so they're going to be unhappy unless they get what they want (ordered).
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For me personally, I feel like the country is much better off now than it was in 2008. Even though the president doesn't control the economy like people think he does, the economy is in a much better place than the 2008 recession, helped by Obama's stimulus bill. We took out Osama bin Laden, gay marriage was legalized across the country, one step was taken toward Universal Healthcare, ended the Iraq war, made progress on climate change, unemployment is around 5%.
I don't think Obama is flawless or everything is perfect--gun violence is a problem across the board, and in particular, the killing of unarmed black people by police is dividing the country. And while the economy has rebounded, it's not as strong as it could be. I think it's difficult for the middle class to achieve the American dream--being able to find work, live in an affordable area with good schools, and be able to send children to college without the burden of student loans. We still don't have paid family leave, so two days after coming home from the hospital with my new baby I had to go back to work to be able to pay for the huge hospital bill for having a child.
But overall, I do think the United States is a great country with genuine freedoms, things are going pretty well and Obama has done a pretty good job.
I fully realize that a Republican could look at my list of successes and say that gay marriage was bad for the country, that Obamacare sucks, and the economy is either not very strong or the recovery is not due to Obama. See vegetarians receiving a pepperoni pizza.
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If you look at my list of goals, of what's important to me, it becomes clear that I'm going to be voting generally for Democrats. I'll say right away, I don't love being tied to a particular party. Both parties have their share of problems and problem people, and it sounds more intellectually open to not have a strong party affiliation, and instead vote on particular candidates.
So why am I a Democrat?
I read the Republican Party's official 2016 platform, the GOP website and Donald Trump's Positions page.
Here are some of the biggest core values the Republicans seem to stand for: smaller government, marriage between a man and a woman, the Constitution as an enduring covenant not a flexible document, protecting guns, repealing Obamacare and building a wall between the United States and Mexico.
First of all, I'm not even joking when I say that seems to be a core value for Trump's positions--it's the first position listed on his page: "Pay For The Wall." You click on that and it doesn't even give a reason for why we need a wall. Mexico is not going to pay for a wall. If we raise the cost of Visas to enter the U.S., Mexico will just do the same thing to us, not pay for the wall. I can't believe I'm even wasting my breath talking about this stupid wall. It's in the top 5 dumbest ideas I've ever heard of and it's his lead policy position.
Also, he only has 7 policy positions listed. 2 are about immigration. 1 is about repealing Obamacare, 1 is about protecting guns and 1 is about tax cuts which is a bunch of crap since every article shows how his tax plan benefits the wealthy not the middle class like he claims. The other 2 are about veteran's benefits and trade reform with China. For comparison, Hillary Clinton has policy positions on 37 issues on her page.
Okay, back to the GOP core issues. Smaller government is really their best idea. One I'm not opposed to in theory. But once you start looking at the budget in a chart like this, you have to start thinking about where to create a smaller government. We spend a lot on Medicare/Medicaid to provide healthcare to the elderly and poor. We spend a lot on Social Security because we owe it to the American workers who contributed from their paychecks all those years. We spend a lot on National Defense because we realize how important a strong military is. You've also got veteran's benefits, education and transportation in there. That's the bulk of it. So if you say you want a smaller government, you've got to make some cuts out of there. If you're going to focus on NASA or FEMA any of the smaller agencies that hardly get any money but still do important stuff, and not make any cuts to the behemoths out there, it's not going to make much of a difference.
GOP Core Issue #2 is "traditional marriage." Guys, I hate to break it to you, but that train has left the station. And it's got rainbow streamers on it.
#3: That the Constitution is not a flexible document. Again, sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but having a process for amending it makes it flexible. I'm sure you'll claim that reference.com has a liberal bias though.
#4: Guns. Goddamn, you guys love your guns. A bit ironic from the pro-life party, but it is what it is. Pro-gun and anti-gun people are never going to agree. So I'll just say that I wish less Americans died because of gun violence and leave it at that.
#5: Obamacare. I know you don't like Obama so you're not going to like his health care plan because it's his, but I don't understand how you're so up in arms about providing affordable health care to more Americans. Health insurance is insanely expensive in this country. It eats my paycheck like crazy. But until we get a different system, people need health care.
#6: We're back to that stupid wall. I've already wasted enough time on that.
So yeah. I don't love the idea of being attached to a particular party, but I really can't get behind anything the Republican Party has to offer.
I do think it's hilarious that the on the GOP website, their first core value is "I believe that our country is exceptional" and Trump's slogan is "Make America Great Again" and continually defends the idea by saying things like "Our country does not feel 'great already' to the millions of wonderful people living in poverty, violence and despair." So which is it, GOP? Is our country exceptional or not great? Because you kind of have to pick one.
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Also, I hate how they use the term Family Values as some sort of secret code word to say that they are pro-life. Look, if you're pro-life, I get it, just say you're pro-life. But don't try to wrap it up with Family Values. I'm raising a family in America. The values that matter to me are the same that I mentioned earlier: affordable housing with good schools and affordable college. Other people may have different Family Values that are important to them, but I'm sure I'm not the only one concerned about my actual family and not telling someone else they can't have an abortion.
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So now I'm back where we started: Clinton vs Trump.
Look, I'm not as excited about Clinton as I was about Obama in 2008. She's not that likable. She's not as trustworthy. One of my biggest concerns is something that Trump, Sanders and Clinton all share: the youngest of the three is 68. I'm not saying older adults are terrible or anything, and of course experience and wisdom are invaluable, but these are modern times and I think it would be nice to have a leader that was more Elon Musk and less Al Davis.
So I totally get anyone not super jazzed about voting for Clinton. But damn, if she's not super qualified. In Obama's speech tonight, he recalled how she aggressively argued to take out bin Laden in the Situation Room. She's seen multiple presidencies from inside the White House.
Her issues align with my issues. Do I think she can actually make in-state public universities provide free tuition? No. But I'd love to be proved wrong! Can she actually make progress on gun violence? It's as tough as challenge as there is, but at least she wants to do something about it. I trust they she will appoint intelligent Supreme Court Justices that will preserve marriage equality and advance the progressive issues of the future.
So in a vacuum, I'm content to vote for Clinton, even if she doesn't have the same appeal that Obama had. Besides, it's not like Obama and I ever got to hang out anyways.
But I don't know if you've noticed, but this election is not being held in a vacuum.
I really don't even want to talk about how unqualified Trump is for the office. He claims to be such a successful businessman who happens to have filed for bankruptcy six times. He's openly racist, sexist and mocks people with disabilities. People apparently like him because he "tells it like it is" and yet every other word out of his mouth is a lie.
If the GOP candidate were Kasich or Jeb, I would vote for Clinton but still be able to respect them and believe they are trying to do their best to improve America, even if I think they're making cheese pizza and I prefer pepperoni. But with Trump, I'm just scared. Without hyperbole, he could literally start a nuclear war.
So yeah, I know who I'm voting for this November.
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