Tuesday, January 03, 2017

Fantasy Champion

Thank goodness for two-week playoff windows. I came back from deficits in both playoff matchups to win my first Super Bowl. I've been doing fantasy draft leagues for 10 years (Construda for two, BS for eight, plus concurrent work leagues for a few years as well) and this was my first win.

So I thought I would work backwards and see how I did it. So obviously, I had to outscore Mac in the two-week Championship and I'll get to that. But in round one, I could have beaten Niraj or Stevo, but not Mac. So the first step to the Championship was making the playoffs and avoiding the #4 seed. Since Burnsy and I both finished 8-5, if I had lost one more game I would have been the 4th seed. Which means that any single victory throughout the season, if it flipped, I would have not won the championship. That's how tight a path to victory is.

Looking through my schedule, I was thinking there would be one close win that came down to lineup setting...but there weren't many close wins at all.

I had a clutch win in week 13 to even make the playoffs, but it wasn't that close.

My closest win came back in week 1, with my 3rd and 4th round picks CJ Anderson and Keenan Allen helped me win. They would both go on IR before too long. Incidentally, Maclin and the Chiefs coming back against the Chargers was the difference between winning and losing that week.

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So I went 8-5 and went up against Stevo in the first round of the playoffs. Coming into Monday Night of week 1 and I was down 122.5 to 66.5. I thought I was toast. And then Tom Brady puts up 32 points for me and I'm only down 24 headed into week 2. Also, Tyreek Hill's 2-TD performance in a game that I personally attended helped.

So in week 2 I needed a huge comeback and I got 12 points from Derek Carr. Not great. The guy who saved my bacon? My first round pick Devonta Freeman who only scored 2 points the week before, racked up 31 points. Jordan Howard added 19. Tyreek Hill had a 68-yard run TD. Bills D against Cleveland had 13 points. Solid team comeback all the way around. And now I'm in the fantasy Super Bowl.




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Similar story in week 16, week 1 of the Super Bowl against Mac. Coming into Monday Night I was down 148.5 to 112.5 with only Dez. Just two weeks prior, Dez Bryant earned me negative points. But he showed up to play against the Lions. He catches two and even throws for a 3rd TD. I was only down 9 points after week 1. But against Mac...I never really felt like a I had a chance.

But in week 17, Tom Brady and Devonta Freeman came up big: 31 and 25.5. And on the other side, Jordy Nelson, David Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, and Greg Olsen put up a combined 23. And that's the difference.



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Brady (round 8) finished with the 11th most points among QBs, but if you take out his suspension, his average is 3rd, just behind Matt Ryan.

I had three top ten running backs: Murray 5th (round 6) Freeman 6th (round 1) and Jordan Howard 10th (used waiver claim after week 3).

My receivers were weak. My best was Tyreek Hill (!) (who cleared waivers after week 10) and was clutch throughout the playoffs. He finished 17th among WR in points and was a free agent through the first 10 weeks. That's nuts! Dez Bryant finished 29th among WR, just above free agent Pierre Garcon.

I never had a good TE, bouncing between Pitta and Fleener who both finished outside the top 10.

I didn't own a top K or DST either.

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Here's my draft with a quick review:

1 Freeman (stud, boom or bust)
2 Bryant (mediocre but clutch)
3 Anderson (injured)
4 Allen (injured)
5 Maclin (bust)
6 Murray (stud + sleeper!)
7 Fleener (bust)
8 Brady (stud)
9 Jones (meh)
...
15 Ware (helpful late round pick)

It doesn't really look like a Championship team. It came down to Brady + Murray/Freeman/Howard and Tyreek Hill.

Freeman was good to get, could have taken Charles and that would have been terrible.
Murray and Brady were my good draft picks outside the top 50. And then I added Howard and Hill during the season. That's really it.

I suppose the bottom line is I didn't score the most points during the season, but found enough running backs to make the playoffs and got clutch performances from weeks 13-17.


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