Sunday, April 29, 2018

Breaking down the movie "Draft Day"

This post is about the 2014 film Draft Day, including major spoilers.

I watched Draft Day last night. Before I can break down the football trades, I need to make a few comments about the film itself. The movie depicts the 2014 NFL Draft. The first problem is that the Seahawks own the #1 pick and need a quarterback. If you live in reality, you know that Seattle actually won the Super Bowl with Russell Wilson and was drafting #32 in the draft. Okay, so we're dealing with a fictional NFL, I suppose and Russell Wilson doesn't exist and the Seahawks stink. Fine. Except...when talking about presumptive #1 pick Bo Callahan, they say he's the most surefire QB since Andrew Luck...who was drafted in 2012 with Russell Wilson.

So the fictional NFL the movie takes place in is actually a Seattle dystopia where Andrew Luck exists but Russell Wilson does not. (The movie began filming in May 2013 after Wilson's rookie Pro Bowl season. Presumably the script was written before the writer realized Wilson would be good. I get it.)

So at the beginning of the movie, the Seahawks need a QB and all the experts say that Callahan is the obvious slam dunk choice. The Browns have the 7th pick. They went 6-10 in 2013, but were 5-1 before their QB Brian Drew got injured. Based off of that record, I'll infer that Brian Drew is roughly equivalent to Tony Romo. Drew has been rehabbing in the offseason, squatting 400 and throwing 15 yards farther down the field. So the Browns coach is happy with his QB and wants a new RB, Jennings, to run his offense. But there are injury question marks. The Owner wants to make a splash. The GM is considering going after Callahan, based around the premise that he is an Andrew Luck type QB that can turn a franchise around. The other player that the Browns are talking about is Vontae Mack, a linebacker from Ohio State.

One of the major problems with this movie is that it only introduces us to those 4 players. Jennings, Mack, Callahan and Drew. On the morning of the draft, the GM writes a note to himself. He doesn't show it to the audience until the end of the movie, but it has a players name followed by No Matter What. He then proceeds to trade with the Seahawks, getting the #1 pick by giving up three consecutive first-round picks (which includes this year's Browns pick at 7.)

Halfway through the movie we see that Callahan is actually kind of a douchebag, while Mack, Jennings and Drew all seem likable. Since those are the only players we know, it pretty much seems like it would be good for the Browns if they ended up with Mack and Jennings, keep Drew at QB and not draft Callahan. Of course, currently they own the #1 pick and gave up 3 first round picks to be at that spot. So it would behoove them to trade down if that's what they want, right? That is never discussed. In fact, the GM isn't even in the draft room when the Browns go on the clock! He's in his office by himself.

Maybe the movie could have introduced us to more players if they didn't also have a relationship angle where Jennifer Garner tells the GM that she's pregnant on Draft Day and the GM's mom shows up with the GM's dad's cremated remains and insists upon spreading his ashes on the practice field on Draft Day.

Anyways, so the GM sends in the first pick without consulting the rest of the draft room. And it's Vontae Mack. If it was Bo Callahan he could have still traded the rights to Bo for more picks to trade down and get Mack/Jennings, but nope. He mortgaged the future for this linebacker. Earlier in the movie there was a conversation that Mack would slip into the late teens if the Browns didn't take him at 7. (Mack had seen the Mock Drafts and personally called the GM. Apparently, no teams in the top 15 want a franchise-changing linebacker.)

So Bo Callahan is still on the board but slips to 6 because teams are spooked that the Browns didn't take him. The Jaguars are at 6 and could use a QB. But they're spooked about why the Browns don't want Callahan. Remember, to everyone in the country Callahan is Andrew Luck. So no teams in the NFL want Callahan because the Browns don't take him? Teams at #2, #3 could be trading the pick or taking the QB, but nope nothing happens. The Seahwaks still want Callahan but they don't contact the Jaguars at 6. Instead the Browns GM calls the Jaguars. They give up three 2nd-rounders to get the #6 pick. Now he calls the Seahawks. He threatens to take Callahan now at 6 unless the Seahawks give the Browns their picks back...plus throw in a punt returner.

If you're Seattle, there's no way you make this deal. If the Browns wanted Callahan, they would have taken him #1. Why would you be scared about the Browns taking him at 6? You keep the picks. That would have screwed the Browns. The Seahawks do not do this. They trade back the picks, give up the punt returner so they can draft Callahan at 6. Now the Browns are back on the clock at 7 and they take the RB Jennings.

The movie treats the Browns GM like a goddamn hero. He saved football in Cleveland.

But how did he really do? His second trade with the Seahawks just canceled out the first trade. He essentially used their original pick to take Mack, who apparently would have been there at 7 anyways. So that's neutral. Barely plus for getting a punt returner, I guess.

Then he traded three 2nd-round picks to get the RB Jennings. Again, this seems like a reasonable trade. Probably a lot to give up for one RB if you're the Browns. So I wouldn't be throwing this GM a parade.

Oh yeah and the note that the GM wrote to himself? It said Vontae Mack no matter what. Why trade three first-rounders if you want Vontae Mack so bad? Just dumb.

If he wanted to end up with Jennings and Mack here's a better way. Mack apparently was going to be there at 15. Jennings was still there at 7 and potentially could have been there a few picks later. Just move down from 7 to 15 for some extra 2nd-rounders and use those to trade back up into the first round to get both your guys.

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