Counterpoint: The Chiefs are 5-1. The one game they lost was to the Lions by one point, and that was without both Chris Jones and Travis Kelce. Mahomes has had some strange throws, but no reason to think it will continue all year—he plays best when the pressure is on. The defense has been excellent. The offense has been doing enough to win while experimenting with trick plays. Rashee Rice is emerging as a good receiver. They Chiefs are good.
Point: It's super hard to repeat as Champions. You've said it yourself, you don't see the Chiefs as winning the Super Bowl.
Counterpoint: That's true. This Chiefs team, especially right now, doesn't seem like a Super Bowl-winning team.
The first step is seeing who gets the #1 seed and the bye in the AFC, as with only one bye and potentially 3 elite teams, that bye is huge.
The second step is getting to the Super Bowl.
The third step is winning that game.
With a 5-1 record and their only loss being to a NFC team, the Chiefs are super well positioned to contend for the AFC top seed. Their games vs Miami and Buffalo will be huge and it would help if Miami can drop a random game here or there.
As for the second step, it's all about how you're playing in January. So if the offense is sloppy and they don't have any good receivers in January, that's a red flag. But they've got time to figure that out.
As for the Super Bowl, we'll cross that bridge when we get there. Right now Eagles or 49ers would be favored but it depends on injuries and luck and everything else.
Point: Right now Chiefs are 5-1 to win the Super Bowl. So Vegas is giving them a 20% chance. 80% chance they don't win it.
Counterpoint: Yeah. The favorite is the 49ers at 4.5-1. Chiefs are 2nd. It's correct for any team that the field is more likely than that team. But having the best odds in the AFC is still a good place to be.
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