Tuesday, December 05, 2023

Sportsbook DOs and DONTs

There's really no better feeling than sitting in a sportsbook eating buffalo wings and going 7 for 7 on your bets. You feel like you really know ball. 

So while it's fresh, I wanted to make my notes to future Dave, what lessons I've learned. 


DOs and DON'Ts


DO focus on the quarterbacks

I made money going against Tim Boyle and Joe Flacco. 


DO some fantasy bets

I pay more attention to fantasy throughout the year than anything, so I had a pretty good feeling that Stroud would throw for yards and that Tyreek would get 100 yards and a score. 


DON'T try to be a hero with too many +400 bets

The big moneyline parlay ticket was fun, but in general, combining too many things looking for a home run ticket is a waste of money. 


DO check the weather

The Cards/Steelers under was helped by a rainstorm. 


DON'T be afraid to adjust the line a little

I'd rather take a team minus -2.5 than -3, or +7.5 than +6.5. The vig doesn't change that much. I had good luck with it. 


DO go against the worst teams

This seems obvious. But this doesn't mean take the best teams. The Eagles, Chiefs and Jaguars all lost this weekend. The best teams are not locks. But going against the worst teams are a good way to make money.


DON'T parlay spread bets

I learned this the hard way two months ago. There's too many times where teams make decisions based on winning the game and don't care about the spread. (Often a heavy favorite (like -11.5) up 17 will give up a late touchdown because they don't care. This weekend the Broncos were a field goal away from covering and in field goal range, but they didn't take it because they trailed by 5.)


DON'T try to be a hero. again.

I thought my 3-team moneyline parlays looked good. Both tickets went 2-1 which is worthless. It would have been better to have 2-team parlays. Winning tickets is fun. In the moment, you don't really care if it's a -140 or a +130. It's just fun to have winning tickets.

2 comments:

  1. It would be interesting to make 5-1 same game parlays on both teams in a big game. So home team money line plus their star players to exceed yards, and same for away team

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