Strategerie

Hypothetical Situation #1:

On offense, you have 3rd and 1 from just inside your opponents 15-yard line. You call a running play, that gains the necessary yard, but there is also a defensive offsides penalty. The decision:

Accept: 1st and goal from the 10.
Decline: 1st and 10 from the 14.

Even though you would be giving up 4 free yards, I think it is better to decline. The counterargument is that you have to get 10 yards either way, so you might as well get the 10 yards to score. But I disagree. I think it is much harder to get the 10 yards when it is goal to go. When you start on the 14, it opens up the underneath passing game and the running game.


Not so Hypothetical Situation #2

On MNF, early in the 4th quarter, the Seahawks score a touchdown to take the lead, 25 to 21. The decision:

Go for 2: Either have 25 or 27.
Go for 1: Have 26.

They decided to go for it. That is a terrible mistake. I know the chart says to go for it any time you are up 4. Well, that chart needs to be reexamined. (More on that, later.)

My reasoning is simple. The Packers have 21, and 14 minutes left in the game. A field goal doesn't help, so you have to assume that for this decision to be relevant, that the Packers will score another touchdown. A 6-point lead would force the Packers to have a successful PAT. Big whoop. That is not worth the risk. If you assume that the Packers would get to 28 points, I would much rather have 26, then a chance of 27. That way a field goal would win it.

In fact, the simplistic chart has been reevaluated. This chart takes into account time of possession and your success rate of 2-pt conversions. For example, at the end of the game, even if you only score 1 out of 20 conversions, if you are up 5 it is worth the risk. However, at the time in question with a lead of 4, you would need a 50% success rate to make it a smart move. (The average success rate is around 40%).

As a side note, with 3 minutes to go and a tie game, I find it interesting that you would need a 97% rate to go for 2. I would have guessed you would need a 100% rate.