Before week 1, hosting San Diego at New Arrowhead on Monday Night, I knew that if the Chiefs had any hope of having a winning season or being in the conversation for a playoff spot, they needed to win this game. Every factor was shaping up in KC's advantage (SD is a slow starter, big crowd for new stadium and MNF, the only home game against division champs, weather, etc.)
The Chiefs came out had 3 big plays and won the game. After the game I wasn't convinced that this win would ignite a march to the playoffs. But that's exactly what it did.
They had another ugly win on the road over the Browns. And then after blowing out the 49ers they were the last undefeated team in the league. But could they translate 3-0 into a playoff spot?
As it turns out, San Diego finished at 9-7. Getting into the playoffs meant getting 10 wins. And that's exactly what happened. Which means that this season EVERY WIN MATTERED.
When the defense came up huge against Denver in December. When the Chiefs ran all over the Seahawks in Seattle. When Chiefs fans turned the Edward Jones Done into Arrowhead East. When I saw them blow out the Cardinals in person. When they crushed the Titans to clinch the division. But perhaps most importantly, when they won in overtime on Halloween over the Bills.
NFL Sound FX happened to be recording the Chiefs during that game, which I probably already posted, but is so good that here it is again.
If Todd Haley doesn't call that timeout in overtime, the Chargers are division champs.
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A great year for the Chiefs. Set some franchise records. Here are the stats:
#1 in rushing yards
#5 in turnover differential
#11 in points allowed
Matt Cassel second only to Tom Brady in TD/INT with 27/7
When you look at running backs with 100 carries this year: Charles blew away the league in rushing. He averaged 6.38 yards a carry. The next highest was 5.60; only 5 others finished above 5.0. Notable names: Foster 4.94, Peterson 4.59, Jones-Drew 4.43, Johnson 4.32, Gore 4.20, Turner 4.10, Rice 3.97, Mendenhall 3.93, Best 3.25.
Charles does in two carries what Ray Rice does in three.
Tamba Hali was #2 in the NFL in sacks.
And then you've got Dwanye Bowe, #1 in receiving touchdowns. Set a franchise record with receiving touchdowns in 7 straight games.
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But Hoagie Central takes you deeper.
I graphed the Chiefs performance. But what does this tell us? Let's go deeper.
Aha! I added average lines for both the Chiefs and the Chiefs opponents. So using this data, I can apply a rudimentary grade for the offense and defense, to see if they performed above average or below average.Week 1: Offense -1, Defense +1 = Win
Week 2: Offense -1, Defense +1 = Win
Week 3: Offense +1, Defense +1 = Win
Week 4: bye
Week 5: Offense -1, Defense 0 = Loss
Week 6: Offense +1, Defense -1 = Loss
Week 7: Offense +1, Defense 0 = Win
Week 8: Offense -1, Defense +1 = Win
Week 9: Offense -1, Defense -1 = Loss
Week 10: Offense +1, Defense -1 = Loss
Week 11: Offense +1, Defense +1 = Win
Week 12: Offense +1, Defense -1 = Win
Week 13: Offense -1, Defense +1 = Win
Week 14: Offense -1, Defense -1 = Loss
Week 15: Offense +1, Defense +1 = Win
Week 16: Offense +1, Defense +1 = Win
Week 17: Offense -1, Defense -1 = Loss
A lot of ways to dive into this data.
The offense had 8 games above average, 8 games below, as you might expect.
The defense had 8 games above average, 2 average games, and 6 below.
When the offense plays above average: 6-2
When the offense plays below average: 4-4
When the defense plays above average: 8-0
When the defense plays below average: 1-5
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Let's go deeper.
Obviously if both play above average: 4-0
Obviously if both play below average: 0-3
Also obvious, when defense was average: 1-0 with above average offense, 0-1 with below average defense.
What's not so obvious. There were seven games that features a above/below split.
When defense carried the Chiefs: 4-0
When offense carried the Chiefs 1-2
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So what does this mean? The Chiefs win when they hold teams to 20 or less. That might seem like an obvious statement. But the statement "the Chiefs win when they score more than 24" might seem equally obvious, but it's not true.
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I thought about handing out some game balls, but this was a team success. Haley has the team playing with heart. Weis got Cassel avoiding picks and utilizing Charles without running him into the ground. Romeo turned around a defense. The offensive line is better. We've got three stud skill position players on offense. Moeaki and McCluster had big plays. And between Derrick Johnson, Hali, Flowers, Berry, the defense is full of talent. I can't single anyone out this year. It was a season that exceeded all expectations, was tremendously fun to watch, and damn exciting to see a new Champion of the AFC West.
Yes, yes, I want to see a playoff win. That is the next goal for the team. But a division title was the first one. And if the season ends on Sunday, it was still a success.
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Let's just hope it doesn't. Go CHIEFS!
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