Thursday, January 14, 2016

The Helpful Eight

Going into the playoffs, I was actually confident in Alex Smith. Over the last three years, he's been good--solid, limits turnovers, usually in that range of top 10-15 quarterbacks, maybe just outside the top ten.

But during this winning streak, something changed. He was actually attempting throws into tight windows down the field. And completing them. See more here. To the point where I didn't think he was as good as Rodgers or Brady, but that he might be an excellent playoff quarterback. When you need to limit turnovers, make plays with your feet and make clutch throws.

Then I saw this article: Ranking The Playoff QBs

Before I read it, I was thinking Smith would be in the top 4. Then I read it. And I was almost surprised they had him that high at #5. What I didn't factor in, is how many good quarterbacks there are left in the playoffs. (The Helpful Eight)

We all know there's a lot more to a team than just their quarterback. But seeing that ranking got me thinking: you really need to have a great quarterback to get here. So let's test that out.

Here's the list of the teams based on 2015 regular season passer rating: (playoff teams in italics, active playoff teams in bold, )

1. Seahawks
2. Bengals
3. Cardinals
4. Patriots
5. Washington
6. Saints
7. Bills
8. Panthers
9. Lions
10. Chiefs
11. Steelers
12. Chargers
13. Giants
14. Browns (McCown)
15. Packers
16. Bears
17. Titans
18. Texans (Hoyer)
...
22. Vikings
25. Broncos (Osweiler)
34. Broncos (Manning)



8 of the top 11 QBs made the playoffs.
6 of the top 11 QBs are still alive.

4 playoff teams had QBs outside the top 11.
2 playoff teams are still alive with QBs outside the top 11.

One of them is Aaron Rodgers, who many would say is the best quarterback in the game, just had a down year.
The other is a true outlier. The Denver Broncos who earned the top seed despite poor quarterback play.

The Saints, Bills and Lions got good quarterback play but I guess didn't have a strong enough team around them to make the playoffs.

If you look at the wild-card games, the team with the better quarterback play won in 3 out of 4 games. The exception? Bridgewater had a better game than Wilson, but Walsh shanked the kick.

So yes, it's a team game. But quarterback is still the most important position. We'll see if better quarterback play means wins through the rest of the playoffs.

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