Blogging through the Bracket

I'm going to try something a bit different this year. Instead of just jumping into making a bracket, I'm going to take a little time to absorb it, and blog my way through my process. I'm going to do all this before I look at 538's numbers to not be biased away from my gut.

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Not counting this year, Michigan State has gone to the Final Four 7 times. 5 times they lost their first Final Four game. Only one national title. I'm going to go with history and say they get there but lose right away.

In the top right, I like WVU more than Xavier, but I don't like either of them as much as UNC/Indiana/Kentucky. Indiana won the big ten regular season but I trust Kentucky more. So I think UNC/Kentucky is for the Final Four.

The last time UNC went to the Final Four, they won it all. Kentucky famously lost last year, 38-1.

So I'm going UNC over MSU in the Final Four.

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Kansas is rewarded with the easiest region. Even though they have a history of early upsets, this seems like a solid squad and an easy path.

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I don't trust Oregon or Texas A&M. I really liked Oklahoma earlier in the season, but I also fear Duke. I'm thinking Oklahoma overcomes Duke to set up a Big 12 Final Four matchup.

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Kansas vs Oklahoma. Really is a toss up. So in cases like this, I will default to who has the easier path. Even though it's tempting to pick Oklahoma over Kansas, I think Kansas has a 70% chance of getting to the FF, and Oklahoma only has a 30%.

So Kansas vs UNC in the championship, the Roy Williams game.

Again, another one that could go either way for me. Even though I think UNC faces tougher opponents, I trust them more not to get bounced out early.

So there you go, I guess I'm picking UNC to win it all. Fuck.