Figuring Out The AFC

We're one-fourth of the way through the season and the AFC is pretty interesting, to me at least. 

We're not using to seeing the Patriots sitting outside the the playoff projections.
This week, the Texans looked like the best team in the league, and they're sitting outside the playoff projections.

Something's going to give.

- - -

Let's start from the bottom.

Browns, Chargers, Bengals, Colts, Dolphins are done. They're bad, with bad records, and just way too many good teams.

The Jets have the same record as the Patriots, but I'm still writing off the Jets.

That leaves 10 AFC teams for 6 Playoff spots.

Raiders...they're 2-2 with a tough schedule and Derek Carr is going to be out with an injury. I know they could still make the playoffs, but I'm betting against it. Because of the injury...I'm counting them out. Let's sort the remaining 9 by division.

Chiefs
Broncos

Texans
Titans
Jags

Steelers
Ravens

Bills
Patriots


The Ravens wins are over the Bengals and the Browns.
The Jags beat the Texans and the Ravens.

Based on that, I'm kicking the Ravens out.

So I've got three solid in:

Patriots
Steelers
Chiefs

That leaves 3 spots for these 5 teams:

Broncos
Bills
Texans/Titans/Jags

One of the AFC South teams has to make it and I'm thinking Texans win the division with Watson.

So now two more playoff teams from:

Broncos
Bills
Titans
Jags

Broncos and Bills already have a one game advantage on the Titans and Jags.

So let's go with this:

1 Chiefs
2 Patriots
3 Steelers
4 Texans
5 Broncos
6 Bills

Glad we figured that out. I'll come back to this in January.

- - -

Oh and by the way, Chiefs already played the Patriots. They go on the road to Houston this week. Back home for the Steelers. Then on the road 4 days later for a Thursday game in Oakland. Which does give them 11 days to prepare for the Broncos on Monday Night Football. That's a rough stretch. Chiefs also will play the Bills and Broncos again. So based on my projections, I've got the Chiefs playing 6 games against the 5 other AFC playoff teams.

Getting the playoff bye is huge. Having home field advantage is huge. That's why every game is crucial. Especially a game like the Steelers. Having that tiebreaker could determine which team gets a bye or which team gets home field.