I have to start this post by acknowledging that the Chiefs were the #2 seed in the AFC last year and had a home game against the Steelers and lost. So you could look at that and conclude playing at home isn't a big deal. Well, for starters, that was a 2-point game that ended with the Chiefs completing a 2-point conversion, only to see it called back to a holding penalty. And more convincingly, the Patriots were the #1 seed and got to face their Houston Texans with Brock Osweiler. So yeah, getting the #1 seed and homefield matters. For the last four years, the #4 seed has been from the AFC South.
(This year, anything could happen. The Patriots and Steelers and Jags are all 3-2. It's entirely possible that the Chiefs could earn the coveted #1 seed and the Pats or Steelers could be #4. But for the sake of discussion, let's assume that #1 is still clearly the best possible outcome as you are ensured you won't play on the road and you get the opponents with the worst record.)
In the race for homefield, the Chiefs are 2.5 games ahead of the Patriots after 5 weeks. I say this because KC beat NE and therefore has a tiebreaker. That's huge.
If the Chiefs beat the Steelers this week, they will be 3.5 games ahead of the Steelers.
If they lose... only half a game ahead. (5-1 vs 4-2 with the tiebreaker edge).
Since this game is worth 1.5 games in the homefield standings, it's a 3-game swing.
So yep, big game. And it happens to be at Arrowhead. Chiefs are favored by 4.
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