Sunday, January 07, 2018

The End of the Alex Smith Era

Let's start with some stats.

The Chiefs become the first team to blow two different playoff games, up 18 at halftime. So sure, the Falcons blew 28-3, the Oilers blew the 1993 game against the Bills...but now the Chiefs have done it twice. (Both blown games included a game where the opposing QB recovered a fluke loose ball and scored a TD.)

The Chiefs have lost their last 6 home playoff games. (And this is a team that has the loudest crowd, allegedly one of the toughest places to play.)

The Chiefs have lost 11 of their last 12 playoff games. (The only win was over a Texans team led by Brian Hoyer.)

This decade the Chiefs have made the playoffs 5 times out of 8 chances. They've been eliminated by 5 different teams, Ravens, Colts, Patriots, Steelers and now Titans. (I say this just to show this is not one team has our number.)

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This game had a number of crazy plays. For a while it seemed like a new crazy play would cancel out the previous one.

The first one occurred with 2:41 left in the first half. Derrick Johnson sacks Mariota so hard the ball comes loose and the Chiefs recover it. The ref blows the play dead and rules "forward progress" so it's not reviewable. Plain and simple, it's a bad call. The sack was a hit, he wasn't driving him back. Even if you thought he was down before the ball comes out, it should be reviewable. This allows the Titans to kick a field goal and make it 14-3.

Moments later, the Chiefs catch a similar break. On the play where Kelce was concussed he dropped the ball and regathered as a Titan was ripping it away. Could have been reviewed and given to the Titans. Instead the Chiefs drive and make it 21-3 right before halftime. So at least both balls on the ground were called for the team with possession. It seemed like it all worked out. Though the Kelce injury was perhaps the play with the biggest impact on the game.

On the first drive of the second half, Mariota scrambles is crossing the line of scrimmage when he throws it. Revis bats it away and somehow Mariota is able to catch it and run it in. As I mentioned at the start, very similar to the Luck fumble in the previous Chiefs blown playoff game.

Next Chiefs drive, Kareem Hunt runs for 9 yards to set up a 3rd and 1. Chiefs run a option to the right and Titans destroy it. Chiefs punt but there's a running into the kicker. So Chiefs will get a first down, right? Nope, they call an offsetting penalty that they never showed. So Chiefs punt again and Titans muff it. Ball don't lie. So after a questionable option play and a possibly phantom offsetting penalty, the Chiefs end up with better field position anyways. Seems like it's all balancing out.

But then KC loses two yards and Butker, who set a record for Chiefs field goals made this year, doinks one off the upright. (His kick started out perfectly straight and halfway there, veered violently to the left. Wind? I don't know?)

From there the rest came down to the Chiefs couldn't get a 3rd down stop ever and couldn't get their offense going.

There were two times that it looked like Chiefs had recovered a scoop and score but the correct calls were made in both cases. (I'm okay with the second forward progress call. Sorenson hit Mariota at the 15 and the play was blown dead at the 25, the ball came out at the 27.)

Chiefs were 4/11 on 3rd down.
Titans were 8/13 on 3rd down.

Titans outgained Chiefs 397-325 and had more first downs 23-19.

The Titans were better on the whole by all the metrics. If the Chiefs had gotten a scoop and score to win at the end, the stats would have said the Chiefs won because of winning the turnover battle despite being outgained.

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The thing that makes this one a bit easier? Hope is on the horizon.

Pat Mahomes looks like the real deal. Our version of Favre or Wilson. Andy Reid and Alex Smith did what hadn't been done in forever, which was win a playoff game. Now the Chiefs have a 3-year Super Bowl window where they have the biggest advantage in the NFL. (In theory) A Pro Bowl level QB on a rookie contract. Pair him with a great defense and that's how you win.

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