Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Opening the Super Bowl Window

In 2012, the Chiefs had 6 Pro Bowlers. Jamaal Charles, Tamba Hali, Justin Houston, Derrick Johnson, Eric Berry and Dustin Colquitt. They went 2-14, 0-6 in the division.

In 2017, the Chiefs had 4 Pro Bowlers. Tyreek Hill, Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, Alex Smith. They went 10-6, 5-1 in the division and made the playoffs.

In the 5 years with Andy Reid and Alex Smith, the Chiefs made the playoffs 4 times. In the prior 5 years, they only made it once.

In 2012, Chiefs fans formed an organization called Save Our Chiefs and flew banners protesting the GM. Later that season, a Chiefs player killed his girlfriend and committed suicide in front of the GM.

It's hard to overstate how bad the Chiefs were before Alex and Andy came to town. How not fun the team was back then. And then how good and fun they've been with them.

In 2013, when I found out they were coming, I said the litmus test would be to win a playoff game. And they did! For the first time in my life, I sat there and watched the Chiefs win a playoff game. I now know what that feels like, thanks to primarily to Alex and Andy.

For the first time in franchise history, the Chiefs won the division in back to back years. That's good!

4 playoff trips in 5 seasons means you belong. You're not the Jaguars crashing the party. You're the Chiefs, you make the playoffs.

I guess most of all, the games mean something. The seasons are fun. It's fun to think about in the off-season. You have hope.

In 2003, the Chiefs were the #2 seed in the AFC. I knew the Patriots and Colts were tough, but the Chiefs had a real chance.

In 2015, the Chiefs won a playoff game. They had a chance.

In 2016, the Chiefs were the #2 seed in the AFC. Again, a real chance.

In 2017, the Chiefs looked great in the first half of their playoff game. They had a chance.

Some people can look at those chances and the fact that they never made an AFC Championship and complain about it. But you can also look at those chances and know that is a lot more fun than going 2-14.

Alex Smith has played his last game as a Chief. But he definitely left this team better than he found it. And I'll always remember the Mile High Miracle, the playoff win, the comeback against the Chargers, and all the other great wins. He was worth it.

- - -

For Washington, this trade looks pretty awful. Going from Cousins to Smith is about equal in production, but Smith is also 5 years older. Tom Brady aside, a lot of quarterbacks drop off after 35. Smith is better at not throwing picks, but I don't think he's making your team significantly better. He'll be fine, could help them win the division next year, but over the long-term, I think I'd rather have Cousins. But not only that, Washington gave up a 3rd round pick AND a great corner still on his rookie deal. Those are two prime assets. So why is Washington doing this?

Basically, they screwed up with Cousins. They made him play on 2 consecutive franchise tags because they wanted to see him prove it. Instead of keeping him and keeping their assets, they needed to replace him.

It's strange because I think Smith will be a good QB for them over the next few seasons and it pisses me off to see smug Eagles/Cowboys/Giants fans licking their chops over seeing Alex. I hope he does well and kicks some ass. But it's hard to believe that this trade will be worth it for Washington.

- - -

It's not rocket science. In basketball you want to shoot threes and lay-ups, not mid-range jumpers. In football, you want great players without having to pay them a lot. I don't think people talk about Tom Brady's salary enough. It's a huge difference maker.

The Chiefs have three years of the biggest efficiency in the game, a QB on his rookie deal. As we've seen with Winston and Mariota, it's only a game-changer if the QB plays at a Pro Bowl level. But every indication is that Mahomes can do that. He'll throw more picks, of course. But I expect some Drew Brees 400 yard, 2 score, 2 pick games that are good enough to win.

Now the Chiefs add Kendall Fuller, an awesome cornerback on his rookie deal. So our GM gets it. He understands the most obvious thing right now. The Chiefs had a pretty good team this past year. The defense could be a lot better. The offense struggled in the middle part of the season. But they were pretty good. Make them better with some free agents and draft picks, baby, you got a stew going. I was reading about the cliche that Belichick takes away your best player, and the analysis that a coach would rather have 11 average players than 6 good and 5 bad ones, and it got me thinking...it's more important to have depth and good players everywhere than it is to acquire a single all-star. To that end, Mahomes + Fuller + pick seems a hell of a lot better than just Alex Smith.

The Pat Mahomes era is here and it's exciting. (I mean, if he is a Brady/Rodgers/Manning type guy, you can compete for his whole career. But it's the first three years that give you the best chance.) You don't have to be the best team all three years--in fact, it's a little easier to suck for a year, get the easier schedule and draft picks and then reload. Brady will still be good next year. But the fall of 2019 or 2020? Brady and Big Ben will be older. The AFC could be wiiiiiiide open. I'm not saying to book your travel just yet, but you might want to keep these in mind.

2018 Season - Super Bowl 53 in Atlanta
2019 Season - Super Bowl 54 in Miami
2020 Season - Super Bowl 55 in Tampa

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