I'm going to try not to bury the lede this time.
Sunday is the most important Chiefs game I've ever seen.
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This the Patriots 8th straight AFC Championship Game. That's incredible. Every other team can only dream of that success.
In the last 7 years of this game, the Patriots were 4-1 at home. 0-2 on the road.
This year the Patriots were 8-0 at home, 3-5 on the road.
There have been lots of moments this year when they Patriots didn't look that great. And then there was Sunday where they had the game won in the 2nd quarter.
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Belichick and Brady have played Reid's Chiefs 4 times and you can interpret them in any way you see fit.
The Chiefs won the only game at Arrowhead.
The Patriots won the only game vs Mahomes.
The Chiefs were the only team to win on the road.
The Patriots won the only game to win in the playoffs.
All four apply on Sunday, so the history doesn't point to a clear advantage.
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I know these are rare.
Aaron Rodgers went to the Super Bowl in his 3rd year. He's now played 11 seasons and hasn't been back.
The Dolphins had Marino from '83 to '99 and went to exactly one Super Bowl, his second season.
Rivers hasn't made it to the AFC Championship game in 13 seasons.
The point is, you can't take anything for granted and assume you're going to get a Tom Brady like run of Super Bowl appearances just because you have a great QB.
Can I go back to that for a second though? Mahomes is 23 and has already gotten the Chiefs farther than Rivers has gotten the Chargers and he's 37. That's nuts.
But despite how rare these chances are, no matter what happens this weekend, I'm happy with the season. I wouldn't have been with another first round playoff bounce. But Mahomes got the team over the home playoff hump and into the first AFC Championship game of my life.
(If they lose this week, then the bar becomes making the Super Bowl. If that ever happens, the bar becomes winning it. There's only two more steps possible. And they're both up for grabs in the next two games.)
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Probably no one has noticed, but over the last couple years, I've been predicting the Chiefs to go to the Super Bowl or at least the AFC title game. I've been making posts like this in:
2017
2016
2015
I didn't really do that this year. I talked about earning home-field for a potential rematch vs the Patriots, but didn't predict it was going to happen. And now it's here. And the Chiefs did get home-field. And they're the favorite. And it kinda seems like they should win.
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Look, if the Patriots win, well, they're good. Brady and Belichick and everyone else has set the standard. Tip of the cap. Mahomes will have more chances. One day he won't be competing with Brady anymore. (I think Mahomes vs Watson could be the new Brady vs Manning) He'll be competing against Watson, Luck, Mayfield, Jackson, and then one day against kids that are still in high school right now.
But if the Chiefs win, they become the team to beat in the AFC for the next 10 years, starting right now. Not that they can make 8 straight title games like the Pats, but 4 or 5 out of 10 is on the table.
(They also have 2 more years left on Mahomes rookie contract, so if I was the GM, I would be thinking about how to get a top 10 defense to pair with Mahomes, but what do I know?)
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Sunday is the most important Chiefs game I've ever seen. Hopefully, in a month it's #2.
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