Week 15: Injured

Let's check in on the injury report:

Injury Report: 

Mahomes, Patrick. (QUESTIONABLE)

Lions, Detroit. (OUT)

- - -

AFC

In: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Steelers, Texans, Broncos, Chargers

Likely In: none

Up In The Air: none

Likely Out: none

Crossed Off: Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, Browns, Raiders, Jets, Dolphins, Bengals, Colts

NFC

In: Lions, Commanders, Eagles, Vikings, Packers

Likely In: Rams, Bucs

Up In The Air: Seahawks

Likely Out: Falcons

Crossed Off: Giants, Panthers, Saints, Cowboys, Bears, 49ers, Cardinals

- - -

Concerns for Contenders:

Chiefs: Offense still not clicking yet and Mahomes ankle

Eagles: Can everyone just get along?

Bills: Defense and can they overcome playoff ineptitude

Lions: Injuries. Defense is decimated. 

Vikings: Is Darnold really going to go to the Super Bowl?

Packers: The path as a wild-card team

Steelers: Can TJ Watt and Pickens be healthy? Can they win the division?

Ravens: Can they trick Lamar into thinking the regular season lasts 22 games?

Eagles and Packers concerns seem the mildest. At this point either one seems like a good bet for the Super Bowl considering the Lions injuries. 

In the AFC, who knows what we're going to get? Josh Allen is the MVP but his defense is having trouble. I'm not betting against KC. 

DVOA says the Ravens are the best. I could maybe believe in them if they had the 1 seed, but they're not going to have it. 

Winningest NFL Coaches

Bill Belichick appears to be done coaching in the NFL. This opens the door for Andy Reid. 

Regular Season Only

Andy is averaging around 13 regular season wins a year. On pace to pass Belichick in 2027. Would take 5 more seasons at that clip to pass Shula. Reid is currently 66. 

Playoffs Only

Reid is 5 behind Belichick. Reid has added 14 wins in the last 5 years, minimum of 2 every year. Hard to count on playoff wins, but technically on pace to pass Belichick in 2026 or 2027.

Regular Season + Playoff Wins Combined

1. Don Shula, 347 wins
2. Bill Belichick, 333 wins

3. George Halas, 324 wins

4. Andy Reid, 296 wins

Averaging 15 combined wins a year, Reid is on track to become number one in 2028.

24 best memes of 2024

non-paywalled link

I figured out Super Bowl 59

Ten years ago, I had perhaps my best prediction ever. 

Two weeks before the Malcom Butler goalline interception in the Seahawks/Patriots Super Bowl, I wrote this.

I've done it again. I've seen the future. I know how Super Bowl 59 will unfold.

- - - 

This season has been dominated by two teams of destiny, one in each conference. Two 12-1 teams on the verge of clinching the first round bye and home field advantage, who couldn't be different in how they're winning.

The Kansas City Chiefs are winning ugly and close. After two straight years of winning the Super Bowl, it's almost as if the NFL script writers got bored and desperate. Instead of just having the Chiefs win normal games, someone decided it would be more interesting if every week the Chiefs found a new way to win on a last second play, most of which might happen every couple of years or so in the entire league. 

The Likely toe on the game-tying TD

Getting pass interference on 4th and 16

Overtime vs Tampa

Blocked field goal to win

Botched snap by Raiders

Doink and in vs Chargers

Some call it Tayvoodoo. Some call it black magic or dark magic. Some say that the Chiefs have sold their soul to the Devil. 

I don't care what you call it. But you'd be a fool to ignore it at this point. 

On the other hand, you have the Detroit Lions. They are winning pretty and big. Point differential of +183 through 13 games, best in the league. Next closest is Buffalo at +129. (The Chiefs are down at +56. Which is third in the AFC West behind two teams with only 8 wins.)

Detroit is a breakthrough. Aesthetically pleasing and with the best motivational coach in the league, aggressive and tough. They are looking to go to the Super Bowl for the first time. And they're doing it in style. 

These two teams are destined to meet in the Super Bowl this year. And where is it being held? No other city than New Orleans, the epicenter of voodoo magic and the dark arts.

Here's how it will unfold:

We already know it's going to be a close game. The Chiefs don't know how to be in anything else. But every time, it hinges upon a new element. So there won't be any repeats. No toes on the line or botched snaps. No it will be something we haven't seen yet. 

I was running though a mental list of possibilities of unusual ways to win...when it hit me. The inverse of what we just saw. 

We were given foreshadowing a month ago. Bates, the kicker for Detroit, has a knack of kicking it just inside the uprights. 

Here's a composite of two kicks narrowly sneaking by the upright.

So imagine you take a kicker that does THAT, but instead they are kicking in the voodoo capital of the universe against a team that has mastered the dark arts?

The Detroit Lions will lose the Super Bowl by doinking a kick to the Kansas City Chiefs. 

You might assume it's a field goal, and it might be. But it came to me in my vision as a doinked extra point. The most aggressive team in the Lions will lose by going for one.

Week 13: Post-Thanksgiving Stretch

Well, the AFC playoff picture hasn't changed in two weeks.

AFC

In: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Steelers, Texans

Likely In: Chargers, Broncos

Up In The Air: none

Likely Out: Colts

Crossed Off: Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, Browns, Raiders, Jets, Dolphins, Bengals

The NFC is both easy and complicated.

NFC

In: Lions, Commanders, Eagles, Vikings, Packers, NFC West winner, NFC South Winner

Likely In: 

Up In The Air: Seahawks/Cardinals/Rams, Falcons/Bucs

Likely Out: 

Crossed Off: Giants, Panthers, Saints, Cowboys, Bears, 49ers

We don't have a race for the wild-card teams. We have a race for two division winners. 

In the South, we have the Falcons and Bucs, both 6-6. The Falcons have a -34 point differential, while the Bucs are +39. The Falcons have lost three in a row while the Bucs have won two in a row. The metrics favor the Bucs. I remember rooting for the Falcons last year and it was awful. So let's say the Bucs win this division. 

In the West, the Seahawks are 7-5 but the Cardinals and Rams are lurking at 6-6. This whole division is a crapshoot. We'll have to put a pin in this one. 

- - -

Just for the hell of it...let's check in on the Burrowhead crew. The Bengals secondary coined that in January 2023.

Since Burrowhead was coined, the Bengals are 0-1 in the playoffs, missed the playoffs following the 2023 season, and are currently 4-8. 

Since Burrowhead was coined, the Chiefs are 6-0 in the playoffs, including two Super Bowl wins, and are 11-1 this year. 

Since Burrowhead was coined, the Bengals are 0-3 vs the Chiefs, including this year where the secondary committed pass interference on 4th and 16.

If you come for the King, you best not miss.

Week 12: On the Road

Huge win for the Chiefs. Anytime you can go toe to toe with a great team on the road, you've got to like your chances come playoff time.

Predicting Conference Championship Sunday

Sunday, January 26, 2025

2pm Central

Eagles at Lions

5:30pm Central

Bills at Chiefs

Week 11: Crunch Time

Let's just go straight to the playoff picture. 

AFC

In: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Steelers, Texans

Likely In: Chargers, Broncos

Up In The Air: none

Likely Out: Colts

Crossed Off: Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, Browns, Raiders, Jets, Dolphins, Bengals

NFC

In: Lions, Commanders, Eagles, Falcons

Likely In: Vikings, Packers

Up In The Air: The NFC West

Likely Out: none

Crossed Off: Giants, Panthers, Saints, Cowboys, Bears, Bucs

The teams that are crossed off are shit. The only thing that gives me pause is that it's hard to have 3 playoff teams from the same division. Chiefs/Chargers/Broncos all look like playoff teams but because they play each other, does that give breathing room to a team like the Colts?

Same story in the NFC. Lions/Vikings/Packers should all make it, but will they? Could the NFC West sneak two teams in?

- - -

Here's a thing. The media, podcasters and fans all judge a team by their offense. 

A team like the Bengals have scored the 5th most points. Everyone thinks this must be a playoff team!

The Chiefs have only scored the 13th most points. This team must not be a serious contender!

But the Chiefs have allowed the 8th least points. Bengals have the 30th best defense.

Let's check in on some other teams, all just going on points scored, points allowed.

Ravens: 2nd on offense, 27th on defense.

Bills: 3rd on offense, 10th on defense.

Lions: 1st on offense, 4th on defense. 

Now that's a championship caliber team. Here's the top ten teams sorted by point differential.

Lions and Bills fans, book your tickets to New Orleans. 

- - - 

For the fourth year in a row, the Bills beat the Chiefs in the regular season. Devastating really.

We just can't beat the Bills when it doesn't matter.

- - -

Listen, all of these things I think are true:

The Bills could absolutely beat the Chiefs in the playoffs. 

Losing this game does take the pressure off the Chiefs from having to go undefeated and can focus on winning in the playoffs. 

I still think the Chiefs get the #1 seed. 

If the Chiefs get the #1 seed and the Bills come to Arrowhead, the Chiefs will be favored by 2.5.

- - -

Betting the Lions to make it to the Super Bowl is the best future bet you can make right now. 

That fact is nuts.

 

Even Chiefs Fans are Villains Now

One thing was different from this week in Vegas compared to the last two years. The treatment I got wearing my Chiefs shirt around.

Someone bumped into me, apologized, then turned saw what I was wearing, then said "You're a Chiefs fan, I'm not sorry."

It wasn't a one off. Other NFL fans were making comments and faces throughout the day. 

I had a waiter at a restaurant tell me he's a 49ers fan and jokingly said that my meal was going to cost triple the price. 

And then throughout the entire Chiefs game, there was a fan who was rooting SO loudly for the Broncos. He kept telling his group how the league is rigged for the Chiefs, how the league wants Mahomes to be undefeated, how every call is bullshit. He was a few feet behind me the whole game.

When the Chiefs turned and blocked the kick to win, I finally turned around to see the guy. In the moment, I didn't know what to say, so I gestured that we should high five to celebrate the Chiefs win. 

The funny thing was that I assumed he was a Broncos fan for 3 hours. But he wasn't. He was wearing Bills clothing. 

And look, I get it. If I was a Bills fan, I would fucking hate the Chiefs too.

Vegas Sportsbook Recap 2024

So I did go to Vegas last weekend and basically came out even. Had some good winners (Jaguars under 17.5 points, Worthy under 2.5 receptions, Chargers -6.5, Bills -4, Eagles -6.5) some bad losers (Saquon over 120 rushing yards, my five team parlays) and some devastating close calls (Lions-3.5 and I would have won $92 if Hopkins had gotten one more reception. He had 3 catches in the first half and only 1 in the second half.)

The DOs and DONTs I wrote last year were pretty spot on, I just chose to do some parlays anyway and of course they didn't pan out.

But it was a ton of fun and coming out even is better than having a terrible day. Here are my pictures from the rest of the weekend.

16oz ribeye at Lago

Quad sevens on a 12x multiplier, winning $75 on a $1.50 machine.

Week 10: Chiefs and Lions are Teams of Destiny

Winners win. Even when they're not having a great day. 

Last year the Chiefs won the Super Bowl with a top defense allowing 17 ppg and an offense scoring 22 ppg. 

This year the Chiefs defense is allowing 17 ppg and the offense is scoring 24 ppg. 

Now KC is really playing with house money. If they lose to the Bills, they're still 9-1 and on track to get the 1 seed. And honestly, it's probably better to get a loss out of the way, let the undefeated season conversation go out the window, and lock in for December and January. 

(Now any other year I would love for KC to go undefeated as it's one of the three ways to do something historic. But this year is all about getting that three-peat.)

Meanwhile in the NFC, the Lions are winning in regulation despite throwing 5 picks. 

National media is running graphics like this:

Of course nothing is guaranteed. 

Ravens and Bills are good. Eagles and Vikings are good. A Ravens-Eagles Super Bowl would not shock anyone. 

But here are the odds to get to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans:

Here are the odds to be the #1 seed:

And here are the odds to win the whole enchilada:

So the Chiefs are slightly more likely than the Lions, but take a look at the teams with shorter odds than 10-1. Chiefs, Lions, Ravens, Bills. Three teams in the AFC. Only one team in the NFC. 

HOPKINS

Week 9: Halfway Home

I got to listen to a podcast this morning hyping up the Ravens and Lions as the best teams in the NFL, talking about how it's going to be a Ravens-Lions Super Bowl. 

And listen, it makes sense. 

Any time you can crown a team based on September and October, it's going to work out! Especially if you can put all your money on a guy like Lamar Jackson who never gets hurt late in the season and always shows up in the playoffs. 💪

And that goes for the Lions too. This team is known for playoff consistency!

- - -

But for real, I do think Chiefs-Lions Super Bowl is really on the table. If it is Lions-Ravens, I will be fucking fired up rooting 100% for the DETROIT LIONS to win their first Super Bowl.

- - -

We're halfway through the season. Let's check out the playoff picture. 

AFC

In: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Texans

Likely In: Steelers

Up In The Air: Colts, Broncos, Chargers, Bengals

Likely Out: none

Crossed Off: Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, Browns, Raiders, Jets, Dolphins

NFC

In: Lions, Commanders, Eagles, Falcons

Likely In: Vikings, Packers

Up In The Air: The NFC West, Bucs

Likely Out: Bears, Cowboys

Crossed Off: Giants, Panthers, Saints

So many teams seem crossed off. In the AFC, really just down to 4 teams looking for two wild-card spots. 

In the NFC There are 6 good teams, 5 bad teams, and the NFC West is totally up for grabs. Then you have the Bucs who were good but have been decimated by injuries. They need Mike Evans back if they have a chance of getting a wild-card spot.

Week 8: Undefeated

If you watched a single Chiefs game by itself with no context, you might think this team should finish 9-8. 

If you watched a single Chiefs game and throw in the context of Mahomes and Reid, Spags, the track record that includes younger players getting better as the year goes along, you might think this team feels like a 12-5 team. 

Right now they're 7-0. Every other AFC team has two losses. 

Next up they get a Bucs team without Godwin and Evans. After that it's Nix vs Mahomes in Arrowhead. Feels like Chiefs will be 9-0 when they go to Buffalo.

Bills should be 8-2 so it's a big game...but even if Buffalo wins, they'll be 9-2 and Chiefs should be 9-1. 

Bills have four in a row of Chiefs-49ers-Rams-Lions. Tough. 

So even though this Chiefs team doesn't look very good any given Sunday, I still think they're going to get the #1 seed. 

(They're not going to go undefeated and I wouldn't be surprised if they dropped a few games they should win, but still feels like they're on pace for 14-3 and the top spot.)

At this point, it's all about getting ready to play your best football in January and February. What a world to be in.

DHop to the Chiefs

I know everyone is supposed to have big hot takes these days, but I think this is pretty simple. 

We needed receivers and we got a good one. Past his prime, but only 3 years removed from being recognized as a top 10 player in the league. Three years ago I had him as the best WR in the game.

Always liked the guy and now he's going to be wearing red and gold, trying to do something historic:

Hoagie Central from February 2024:

Week 7: Byes Matter

The league added a 7th playoff team in each conference starting in the 2021 playoffs. 

Here are the Super Bowl teams by seed:

2021: AFC 1-seed, NFC 5-seed

2022: AFC 4-seed, NFC 4-seed

2023: AFC 1-seed, NFC 1-seed

2024: AFC 3-seed, NFC 1-seed

In this new era, here are your odds of going to the Super Bowl based on 4 years of data:

1-seed: 50%

2-seed: 0%

3-seed: 13%

4-seed: 25%

5-seed: 13%

6-seed: 0%

7-seed: 0%

Now some of this is noise and some of this is small-sample size. 

Some of this is more easily explained by narratives. 

But the fact remains that the 1-seed is far more valuable than it was in the 6-teams per conference era, and the 2-seed is far less valuable. 

- - -

Through 7 weeks, the teams sitting in the 1-seed spot are the Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions.

- - -

Ravens are now on a 5-game winning streak. Only 3 teams have a better record. That 0-2 start is a distant memory, and yet like some distant memories, it could easily haunt them if they don't get the 1-seed. The loss to the Raiders is ridiculous. 

The inevitable Jayden Daniels injury has arrived and now he's week-to-week. His absence threatens to derail the best turnaround story in the NFL.

Steelers swap the 4-2 Fields for the 1-0 Russ. I want to go on the record now, that everyone is praising the move because they beat up on the Jets, but I would have kept starting Fields and I don't think Russ will continue to impress.

The Saints fell off hard. The Panthers are awful. And now the Bucs receivers are injured. Maybe Simmons will hit his under 30 wins bet.

Key injuries are happening all over the place. The Texans need Nico Collins back.

Everyone acts like the Eagles suck, but I still think they're good. (shrug)

My hot take that the 49ers would miss the playoffs is looking pretty good so far.

The Bills have the easiest division I've ever seen.

- - -

Let's take a look at the playoff picture. 

AFC

In: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Texans

Likely In: Steelers

Up In The Air: Colts, Broncos, Chargers, Bengals

Likely Out: Dolphins

Crossed Off: Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, Browns, Raiders, Jets

NFC

In: Vikings, Lions

Likely In: Packers

Up In The Air: 10 teams

Likely Out: none

Crossed Off: Giants, Panthers, Saints

The AFC feels very settled with four strong division leaders and 6 truly awful teams. 

Meanwhile, the NFC is very wide open. If Jayden was healthy I'd have the Commanders as In but he's not. And even the Rams could go on a run if they get healthy. All the good teams are in one division. So weird.

Ranked Illinois Beats Ranked Michigan

And look good doing it.

Week 6 Bye Week

New Found Glory: Album Tierlist

I did this for Alkaline Trio back in February, and I found it helpful and enjoyable to re-listen and sort things out in my mind.

Let's look at this chronologically:

Nothing Gold Can Stay (1999) ★★★★★

New Found Glory (2000) ★★★★★

Sticks and Stones (2002) ★★★★★

Catalyst (2004) ★★★★★

Coming Home (2006) ★★★★★

Not Without a Fight (2009) ★★★½

Radiosurgery (2011) ★★★★½

Resurrection (2014) ★★★★½

Makes Me Sick (2017) ★★★★

Forever + Ever x Infinity (2020) ★★★★½

Make the Most of It (2023) ★★★★

Their first five albums were all five stars and they haven't returned to that level since 2006, but honestly 4.5 star albums in 2011, 2014 and 2020 is still great and nothing to complain about. They've experimented with different styles and still managed to be very consistent in quality. 

breaking

I have been appointed the Head Coach of the Hoagie Central Hockey Club.

Dave Fymbo, HC HC HC.

easy money?

There are two 5-0 teams, one in the AFC and one in the NFC. 

Would would happen if you put $100 on each one to make it to the Super Bowl?

Chiefs +220

Vikings +550

Derek Carr Update

One of my favorite bits of all time is this one:

Week 5 Proving Ground

So here's a snippet of something:

That's from October 2023.

Let's keep that in mind. The Bills looked dominant in weeks 1-3, then went to Baltimore and have looked like shit since then. They're 3-2 and just don't seem like a contender at the moment. 

Congrats on blowing out the Jaguars, but now they have losses to the Ravens and Texans. They're sitting as a 4-seed in the playoff race and are lucky they play in the AFC East. 

- - -

The 49ers are 2-3 and having a season from hell? Who could have seen that coming?

- - - 

Let's check in on the worst teams in the league. 

I expected the Panthers and Giants to make this a race to the bottom. 

The Panthers are sitting at the bottom of the league, as expected with a 1-4 record. But they have some company. 

The Patriots, Browns, Titans, Jaguars all make sense. The injured Rams are there. And so are the team to beat in the AFC, the Bengals.

By points scored, the Bengals are 4th in the league!

By points allowed, the Bengals are 31st in the league!

They have a point differential of -5 with a 1-4 record. Really impressive to lose that many close games with a top-5 offense. 

I hope they start winning a few games to at least move out of a top 5 draft slot.

- - -

Only 6 teams in the AFC have a winning record after week 5. That's kind of nuts.

Chiefs, Texans, Ravens, Bills are your division leaders. Then you've got Steelers and Broncos. Current 7 seed is the 2-2 Chargers.

Then you've got Jets, Raiders, Dolphins, Colts at 2-3. 

Then 5 teams at 1-4.

Meanwhile in the NFC, there are 9 teams with a winning record and the Saints could make it 10 tonight.

Only 2 teams at 1-4 in the NFC. 

song of the year

holy shit, is it 5785 already?

This is the perfect hoodie to wear when you're getting blown.

Assuming that you are a shofar.

Week 4 Observations

Jayden Daniels is HIM. 

Anthony Richardson is GLASS.

Derek Carr is who we thought he was. The Saints have come back to earth and now get a MNF game in Kansas City as their reward.

The Chargers played Herbert two weeks in a row with a high-ankle sprain, and came away with 0 wins to show for it. This is the flip side of Harbaugh. Instead of protecting your franchise quarterback for the long-term, you go all rah-rah we live for this moment and look where it gets you. In a couple years if he destroys Herbert, he can just bail on the Chargers. (Meanwhile, Andy Reid still won't let Mahomes take a sneak.)

One of these will be true:

• The Ravens and Bengals will both be 2-3 after 5 weeks. 
• The Bengals will be 1-4 and essentially eliminated from playoff contention. 

I'm good with either!

So Jayden Daniels. Great, exciting stuff. They've basically scored on every possession, three games in a row. But I'm not ready to buy the Manders as a playoff team yet. Their defense is trash and it's almost guaranteed that Daniels is going to miss a few games to injury at some point.

Meanwhile Anthony Richardson. He has played in 8 of a possible 21 games so far. In those 8 games, 4 of them he did not finish due to injury. But he was also pretty bad this year. The 2024 Colts are better off with Flacco. 

The Jags are 0-4. But at least they play in TrEver Bank Stadium.

After Week 5, every NFC North team will have a winning record.

- - -

Let's take a look at the playoff picture. 

AFC

In: Chiefs, Bills, Texans

Likely In: Ravens

Up In The Air: 5 teams

Likely Out: Broncos, Bengals, Dolphins

Crossed Off: Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, Browns

NFC

In: Vikings, Bucs

Likely In: Lions, Seahawks

Up In The Air: 8 teams

Likely Out: Cardinals

Crossed Off: Giants, Panthers, Rams

- - -

Chiefs WR is back down to quality of last year. 

Moving forward they've got:

Worthy

Juju

Hardman

Justin Watson

Skyy Moore

Plus: Kelce, Noah Gray, Kareem Hunt, Samaje Perine 

It's concerning to have Brown Rice (WR1 and WR2) go down for the season. We'll see if Veach brings in another WR this week.

Week 3 Frauds

I guess he meant "team to beat" literally.

This was the best Super Bowl window year for the Bengals before their cap situation gets tight and they start 0-3. 

Bengals fans have shown up for two home games. To watch the Patriots come in and get their only win and the Commanders led by a rookie QB torch the hell out of them. Maybe instead of trying to rename other team's stadiums, they should just focus on their own. 

Bengals can go 8-6 rest of the way and would still miss the playoffs. 

- - -

It only took 3 weeks before people starting asking if the Bears should have kept Justin Fields. 

A month ago after seeing Caleb in the preseason, people were saying can you believe anybody thought the Bears should keep Justin Fields. 

Here's the thing: QBs and Coaches both matter a lot. 

When you have the best combos like Brady/Belichick or Mahomes/Reid it can be tough to isolate who's more deserving of the credit, but ultimately it doesn't really matter. You just want to keep them both together for as long as possible. 

When you have bad/struggling/mid combos it is also tough to isolate the problem. When Andy Dalton comes in and outperforms Bryce Young by a country mile, it makes it easier to label Young as a bust. When Kevin O'Connell can get huge wins out of Sam Darnold (previously famous for seeing ghosts) it's pretty easy to see that KOC should get his flowers. 

When you had three years of Justin Fields on the Bears and he produced highlight reel plays but not enough consistency or winning to lock him up long term...who do you blame? The Bears blamed Fields and traded him for not much in return. They replaced him with Caleb who hasn't impressed so far. Meanwhile, Fields is 3-0 on the Steelers. 

Here's the reality as I see it. If Caleb Williams had gone to the Chiefs or 49ers or Packers or Vikings or Texans or Dolphins (or probably another 6-10 good/decent teams with good coaches) he'd be lighting it up already. LaFleur schemed up two nice wins with Malik Willis. 

We already know what Justin Fields on the Bears looks like. Back in January, I had him in the same tier as Jordan Love and here's what I wrote about him in the preseason:

Does it feel good to be right? Yes, of course, 100%. 

But the point is that the question of should the Bears have stuck with Fields or gone with Caleb, overlooks the elephant in the room. The Bears are bad because they're the Bears. It starts with the coaching staff. Drafting Caleb Williams and pairing him with Matt Eberflus is like buying a Ferrari F1 car and hiring Matt Eberflus to be your driver.

- - - 

Let's end with the Chiefs. KC is on a 9 game winning streak and has done everything they need to do to position themselves for a potential bye or at least wining the division. 

It hasn't looked pretty.

If you flip a couple plays they could be 0-3. (Guess who else that applies to? Basically every team in the league.) 

I do recognize the point that the Saints and Vikings have had some big wins, and every Chiefs win is a squeaker, but to quote Malik Willis: "All wins count the same."

And for people to be freaking out saying that KC doesn't look complete yet, relax. I think they've earned a bit of patience. First of all, they're 3-0 so what are we really talking about. And second, it's September. You don't want to peak too soon. I think it's juuuuuust fine to grind out some close games, live in those clutch moments, and ideally round into shape in December and January. 

Week 2 Thoughts

I told myself I wasn't going to do a weekly column this season because I didn't want to force it, but here we are, 2 weeks in, 2 posts. 

Let's start with the Chiefs. 

Starting the season with two wins over Ravens and Bengals. Now that we're in the single-bye era, it's so much easier to get to the Super Bowl if you're the #1 seed. Gotta love racking up wins against good teams, knowing there's teams like the Panthers and Broncos coming up on the schedule. 

For the last couple years, we've had to hear about how the Bengals are the team that beats the chiefs. Let's check in on that Bengals-Chiefs rivalry since Mahomes got here:

3 wins in a row for KC at Burrowhead.

Let's check-in on the Burrow vs Mahomes head to head comparison: 

It's true Burrow is 2-1 vs Mahomes in the regular season. But I think I'll take everything in the bottom section of that chart over a regular season win.

Real quick, remind me again what Likely on the Ravens said after the Chiefs beat them...

It's really kind of him for to wish good luck for his opponents,
but I think the Chiefs are lucky enough already. 

- - -

Let's take a look at the playoff picture. 

AFC

In: Chiefs, Bills, Texans

Likely In: Chargers

Up In The Air: 9 teams

Likely Out: Broncos, Titans, Patriots

Crossed Off: None

NFC

In: None

Likely In: Eagles, Lions

Up In The Air: 11 teams

Likely Out: Commanders

Crossed Off: Giants, Panthers

Saints and Bucs look real good through 2 weeks, good enough to say Likely In, but typically the NFC South should only send one team, so I'm not going to put them both Likely In yet. A lot of football yet to be played.

Week 1 Overreactions

Panthers and Giants will be the two worst teams in the league. Their game in Munich on November 10 will determine who gets the #1 pick. 

The cream of the AFC is the Chiefs and not the Bengals. Ravens, Bills, Texans all will be in play. Who will attend the Arrowhead Invitational this year? Let's say Bills. 

Cowboys will be win 11 games but none in the playoffs. 

49ers will be good. Eagles will be good. Lions will be good. Bucs will make the playoffs. 

49ers/Lions/Eagles will all have a shot at the NFC Championship. Let's say Lions hosting the Eagles. 

hot take

If you fumble at the goal line, you'll lose. 

Bengals and Jaguars both fumbled at the goal line and lost by 6 and 3 respectively.

In the AFC Championship, the Ravens fumbled at the goal line and and lost by 7. 

My advice: don't fumble at the goal line.

another year, another banner

So Many Thoughts on Chiefs-Ravens Opening Night 2024

It really shouldn't have been that close. Up 20-10, Mahomes misses Perine on a 3rd and 5 from the BAL 40 that would have been a huge play. Ended up punting instead of breaking the game open.

Chiefs have to put the game away with 3 minutes to go and only one timeout for the Ravens. Really inexcusable to risk letting the Ravens come down and get 8 points to win (That's how the Chargers beat Mahomes for the game they printed up t-shirts about, going for 2 instead of heading to overtime.)

Harbaugh was going to go for two. Smart guy. But he really has himself to blame, the Ravens could have really used those two timeouts. 

Rice was eating all day on slants over the middle. 

3 touches for Worthy. 2 touchdowns. Both touchdowns were 20+ yards. Chiefs only had 4 from that distance all of last year. 

If I was a Ravens fan, I would be SICK about Lamar missing a wide open Flowers in the end zone after missing an open Likely on the play before. 

If Likely gets his toe in and the Ravens make the 2-pt, it's a hell of a win for the Ravens and a crushing loss for the Chiefs. But that didn't happen. Instead here's our reality:

Chiefs are 1-0 and got there without Hollywood Brown, their new WR1. Now own the tiebreaker over Ravens for potential bye, home field. 

Chiefs schedule opens vs Ravens and Bengals but closes against Steelers and Broncos. Love getting wins in the tough part of the schedule. 

Ravens do not have an answer for KC. 

Last year, Chiefs lost on opening day without Chris Jones and had to settle for going 11-6 and getting the 3rd seed. Already feeling like 12 wins seems realistic. 

Hell of a game.

disc golf 9.2.24

I went disc golfing 6 times in August/September 2021. Since then I've gone twice with Niraj, once in KC, once in San Diego. I took the boys once in May 2023. And I went once with Mark in St. Louis. 

I took my oldest today and we played a great round at Blue Valley Disc Golf (aka Prairie Pass) at Pleasant Ridge Middle School. 

Didn't keep score but we both got several pars and had a bunch of nice shots. Great way to get 5000 steps in.

2024 NFL Preview

Here's a quick timeline.

I started this blog in 2005. 

In January 2016, I saw the Chiefs win a playoff game for the first time.

In January 2020, I saw the Chiefs go to the Super Bowl for the first time. 

The Chiefs have been in 4 of the last 5 Super Bowls, winning three. 

Before Pat Mahomes became a starter in August 2018, Chiefs were synonymous with playoff failures. 

Now they're going for history, a chance to become the first team to win three Super Bowls in a row. 

Last year I predicted 49ers and Chiefs would meet in Super Bowl 58. And they did. Neat.

AFC West

We start with the two-time defending Super Bowl Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs. We're nearing the end of Kelce's run. And what a run it's been. Despite winning two Super Bowls in a row, the Chiefs have been able to keep the roster intact and keep drafting well. 

Last year the Chargers had Justin Herbert entering his 4th year. Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack. This was a team predicted to go 11-6. They went 5-12, finishing last in the division. So they cleaned house. Brought in Michigan Man Jim Harbaugh and shipped out Ekeler and Allen. Their offense is a real Who's That? The question becomes how much of a positive impact can Harbaugh have in one season?

Year Two of Sean Payton coaching the Broncos. Russell Wilson is out, rookie Bo Nix in. Nix! Williams! Sutton! Mims Jr.! Exactly the kind of players you want to take in the 12th round of your fantasy draft. 8-9 last year and now will face the growing pains of having a rookie QB. 

Jimmy G, once the most prized backup QB in the league, was the Raiders starter in 2023. He's now returned to the role of backup and the Raiders are instead going with, checks notes, Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew. Haven't seen a QB battle this intense since JaMarcus Russell vs Game Film.

QB Rankings

Mahomes

Herbert

Nix

Minshew

Division Finish

Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos, Raiders

AFC East

Last year the Bills and Dolphins both finished 11-6, the Jets went 7-10 with no QB, and the Pats went 4-13. 

The Pats drafted their QB of the future Drake Maye, but as well all know, Drake is not like us. He's losing a training camp battle with Jacoby Brissett. Now the Pats are trading away good players. Looks like another 4th place finish.

Last year, the Aaron Rodgers hope train got derailed leaving the station. But now that he's 40 and recovering from an injury, I'm sure things will go better than when he was 39 and healthy. The fact that the Jets still went 7-10 without him shows they've got talent and fight, so they'll be in the hunt as long as their QB stays upright.

Speaking of banking everything on an injury-prone QB, the Miami Dolphins. Speed kills and they've got it. A great team in September and October, but once the weather drops, they lose their magic. Should be good for 9 or 10 wins, but it's hard to see why they'd be better than last year. 

And then there's Buffalo. Their window isn't all the way shut, but it's been closing for a little while. Tre White is gone. Diggs is gone. Milano is hurt again. It's the Josh Allen show again but this time without any receivers. Allen is good enough that 11+ wins won't surprise me, but also feels like they're due for a year of 8 or 9 wins.

Three good but not great teams and one dogshit.

I don't like the vibes in Buffalo, I don't believe in Miami in December, and I'm not convinced Rodgers will be healthy all year. 

This is so tough. Buffalo seems like a 2nd place team. I was about to put my trust in Rodgers but then I remembered they're the Jets. 

QB Rankings

Allen

Tua

Rodgers

Brissett/Maye

Division Finish

Dolphins, Bills, Jets, Pats

AFC South

Stroud stepped on to the scene and surpassed Lawrence as best QB in the division in his rookie year. 

Richardson hasn't proven he can stay healthy. Tremendous talent, but I need to see him avoid hits before I take the Colts seriously. 

The Texans have re-loaded and should be good. Colts could be good if Richardson stays on the field, and we're still waiting for Lawrence to prove he can be a top5 QB. 

Titans are a rag-tag roster, and I like Levis ok, but I can't pick the worst QB in the division to be a division contender. 

QB Rankings

Stroud

Lawrence

Richardson

Levis

Division Finish

Texans, Jags, Colts, Titans

AFC North

Is Burrow healthy? Unfortunately for them, this is really the last year of their best Super Bowl window. They'll pay Burrow and Chase which you have to do, but it's going to limit the amount of great players you can start around them. 

Is Lamar overrated? I mean, he still sucks in the playoffs. Last year was his sixth year and the first time he's started 16 games. Cool MVP trophies bro. 

I'm one of the few people who thinks that Justin Fields is a good QB, and I think the Steelers will be better off the sooner they start him. 

And then there's the Browns. Watson sucks. Chubb's leg exploded. They finished 11-6 last year but on the back of Joe Flacco. 

All of these teams were good last year, but someone's got to fall off. The class of this division is still Ravens and Bengals. If Burrow was fully healthy, I might pick them to win the division, but I'm not convinced. 

QB Rankings

Burrow (if he's healthy but he's not)

Lamar 

Fields

Watson

Division Finish

Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, Browns

AFC Playoff Picks

1 Chiefs

2 Texans

3 Ravens

4 Dolphins

5 Jaguars

6 Bills

7 Bengals

NFC North

Now this is a division. The Lions won the division by 3 games last year. They won a playoff game. And they were up 24-7 in the NFC Championship game. 

Now the Detroit Lions have real expectations. So of course everything will go off without a hitch!

Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears have done something we've really never seen. They went 7-10 and added the best QB in the draft, and he seems like the real deal. Plus they reloaded with talent around Williams. 

I know people compare him to Mahomes a lot already, but Mahomes joined a good Chiefs teams. That might be the most important comparison.

So I might be eating some crow this year. In January 8, I published this list of QB rankings/tiers and I had Jordan Love as the 19th best QB in the league, behind Justin Fields, same tier. 

Love got a $220M contract and Fields is now the backup on the Steelers. 

So was I way low on Love? Is he a top 10 QB and going to lead the Packers to the playoffs? Should I double down on my Love is mid take or should I course correct and get on the right side of history?

Oooof. The Vikings have an all-time great receiver in his PRIME and they've got Sam Darnold dicking around back there. Easy 4th place here.

Packers/Lions/Bears are all good teams and it will get decided by injuries and how good Williams actually can be this year. 

QB Rankings

Love (going out and winning that playoff game showed me I had him too low previously)

Williams (he hasn't earned this yet, but I'm willing to believe)

Goff (he's good!)

Darnold (he's bad!)

Division Finish

Bears, Lions, Packers, Vikings

NFC South

Panthers are dog shit. 

Falcons are all in, have a ton of talent, and got rid of their shitty coaches. I took them last year and was fooled. Fool me — you can't get fooled again.

The Bucs are frisky even though I never think they'll be good and the Saints are mid.

Goff is better than all these guys.

QB Rankings

Cousins

Mayfield

Carr

Bryce

Division Finish

Falcons, Bucs, Saints, Panthers

NFC West

In 2019, the 49ers went 13-3 and lost in the Super Bowl to the Chiefs. The following year, they finished last in their division, going 6-10.

In 2023, the 49ers went 12-5 and lost in the Super Bowl to the Chiefs. Let's come back to this.

The Rams don't have Aaron Donald. But they do have Puka and Cooper.

The Seahawks are just kinda blah. 

And the Cardinals should be better with a healthy Kyler, but what's their ceiling.

The 49ers still seem like the best team, but that Super Bowl Loss Hangover is going to bring them back to earth a bit. Feels like these could 4 teams that all finish around 8-9. But I can't put the 49ers winning the division after losing the Super Bowl.

QB Rankings

Purdy

Stafford

Kyler

Geno

Division Finish

Rams, 49ers, Cardinals, Seahawks

NFC East

The Cowboys are so interesting because they're always good in the regular season and they're always such shit in the playoffs. So let's just lock that in one more time.

The Eagles are the year after the Super Bowl Hangover. My Hurts stock looks great but is still undervalued by the rest of the world. 

Commanders will have a spark but the obvious growing pains of a rookie qb.

And the Giants will be shit. In contention for worst team in the league!

QB Rankings

Hurts

Dak

Daniels

Dimes

Division Finish

Eagles, Cowboys, Commanders, Giants

NFC Playoff Picks

1 Eagles

2 Bears

3 Falcons

4 Rams

5 Lions

6 Cowboys

7 Packers

Yep, I've got the 49ers missing the playoffs. I think the Bears/Lions/Packers are all playoff teams. Seeing this made me rethink if I should have the 49ers winning their division, but what the hell, let's go for it. 

Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans:

Chiefs over Eagles

I was this close to saying Chiefs over Bears, but let's not get nuts.