Playoff Overtime Rules

I've seen all the conversation around the strategy for the new NFL overtime rules in the playoffs. I think there's a clear way to go moving forward. But let's dive into each side. 

Advantage of Going First

If you score first, you can put the pressure that any turnover ends the game

If there's a third possession, it will be a tie game, and it's sudden death now and a field goal wins

Your defense gets a rest, particularly important if they were just on the field

Advantage of Going Second

You know exactly what you need, which turns the whole field into 4-down territory if you're trailing

Your defense has a chance to get a turnover or even force a punt to make it sudden death, where all you need is a field goal 

You know exactly what you need, so you could win with a field goal, you could win with a touchdown, you could win with a touchdown + PAT, you could win with a touchdown + 2pt

You have the luxury of going for two knowing it's a game winner...let me come back to that

- - -

Let's run through a few scenarios...

Scenario A

Go first and you get a touchdown. You have to choose to kick for one or go for two. Going for two is very risky. It doesn't guarantee the win as the other team will have a chance to match and if you fail the other team doesn't have to match, they can kick for one and win. That risk/reward ratio makes it unappealing to go for two. An aggressive coach could still do it, if their offense if much better than their defense, but the reward doesn't outweigh the risk. 

Scenario B

You're going second and you're trailing by 7, then you get a touchdown. Now the math is different. Going for two wins the game. Kicking for one gives the other team the ball with sudden death. The reward for going for two is much better and now kicking for one is tremendously risky. So if you're in this situation, you go for two. 

Now that we've run through scenarios A + B, we see that the chances of a third possession are a lot slimmer. (The 49ers could have had one if they stopped the Chiefs in the red zone and limited them to a field goal...but not if both teams scored a touchdown.)

If you look back at the advantages of going first, the pressure element was not really applicable to Mahomes and the third possession thing is also weak. The only real advantage would be to give your defense a rest, but that doesn't come close to the advantages of knowing what you need. 

Scenario C

You're the Chiefs and you're going first. You've got 4th and 4 from your own 31. Do you go for it? Fail and you give the ball to the 49ers in field goal territory. Or you could punt and pin them deep. It's a tie game, so pinning them deep doesn't seem so bad, right? The problem is you don't know what you need. You don't know what the 49ers will do on their possession, so you don't know if it's okay to punt the ball away or if it's worth the risk to go for it on 4th down. IF you had a magical crystal ball that could let you see the future of their next drive, then the call to punt or go for it would be easy. Choosing to receive second is that crystal ball.