Wednesday, November 01, 2017

Advanced NFL Metrics

I came up with a new stat: Point Differential in Losses. It rewards wins and close losses, punishes big losses. You don't get credit for blowing out bad teams, but it does punish the bad teams. Take the recent game where the Ravens beat the Dolphins by 40. The Ravens aren't that good (before that game they had a -18 point differential). So instead of acting like they're really a +22 team now, let's just punish the Dolphins for being shitty.

There is one caveat, if you've only played 7 games, you're at an advantage to a team that's played 8 games. So I'll put an asterisk by the 7 game teams. If you see an asterisk, you probably want to mentally move them down a slot or two.

Here's the current standings (after week 8).

Eagles 7
Chiefs 7
Bills 10*
Rams 13*
Seahawks 14*
Patriots 18
Lions 23*
Vikings 24

Falcons 25*
Saints 26*
Steelers 27
Chargers 29
Packers 33*
Jaguars 34*
Cowboys 34*
Texans 36*

Panthers 40
Bengals 43*
Bucs 44*
Washington 46*
Jets 49
Broncos 54*
Raiders 57
Giants 57*

Titans 59*
Bears 60
Ravens 65
Dolphins 74*
Cardinals 81*
Browns 83
49ers 86
Colts 110

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