Doing the Math

Having just introduced my Point Differential in Losses metric, I thought it would be worthwhile to test it out.

I'm going to compare it to wins and standard point differential over the last three games of the year for the last three years, to see which metric is a better predictor in the playoffs. For each game, I'll state if the particular metric correctly predicted the winner.


2016
Pittsburgh vs New England
Wins: yes
PD: yes
PDwL: yes

Green Bay vs Atlanta
Wins: yes
PD: yes
PDwL: yes

Atlanta vs New England
Wins: yes
PD: yes
PDwL: no

(Editor's Note: so my metric looks a lot cooler if Atlanta doesn't blow a 28-3 lead, just saying. Pretty interesting that the Falcons in 5 losses had less PDwL than the Patriots did in two.)


2015
New England vs Denver
Wins: N/A tied
PD: no
PDwL: N/A tied

Carolina vs Arizona
Wins: yes
PD: yes
PDwL: yes

Carolina vs Denver
Wins: no
PD: no
PDwL: no

2014
New England vs Indianapolis
Wins: yes
PD: yes
PDwL: yes

Green Bay vs Seattle
Wins: N/A tied
PD: yes
PDwL: yes

New England vs Seattle
Wins: N/A tied
PD: yes
PDwL: no


(Editor's Note: Goddamnit. The Patriots win 2 Super Bowls in three years that they shouldn't have and it ruins my metric. Fuck.)