Smart Heuristic

Which of the following two cities has more inhabitants — Hanover or Bielefeld?

I pick these two German cities assuming that you don’t know very much about Germany. Most people will think it’s Hanover because they have never heard of Bielefeld, and they’re right. However, if I pose the same question to Germans, they are insecure and don’t know which to choose. They’ve heard of both of them and try to recall information. The same thing can be done in reverse.

Daniel Gray Goldstein did studies asking Americans which city has more inhabitants — San Diego or San Antonio? About two-thirds of my former undergraduates at the University of Chicago got the right answer: San Diego. Then we asked German students — who know much less about San Diego and many of whom had never even heard of San Antonio — the same question. What proportion of the German students do you think got the answer right? In our study, a hundred percent. They hadn’t heard of San Antonio, so they picked San Diego. This is an interesting case of a smart heuristic, where people with less knowledge can do better than people with more.