Friday, April 11, 2014

Final Four by Seeds

When organizing this year's Calcutta, I decided to group the 7 seeds and below as a four-team unit to bid on. My thinking was that teams seeded 7 and below rarely make the Final Four. I didn't run the numbers, but I have now.

Prior to March 2014, here were the percentages of seeds making the Final Four, dating back to 1985, the beginning of the 64-team field.

Over the last 29 years (again prior to this year's tournament) there were 116 Final Four teams.

Here are the distribution by seeds: (no team 12 or below has ever made the Final Four)

1: 47 (40.5%)
2: 25 (21.6%)
3: 14 (12.1%)
4: 13 (11.2%)
5: 6 (5.2%)
6: 3 (2.6%)
7: 0 (0%)
8: 4 (3.4%)
9: 1 (.9%)
10: 6 (5.2%)
11: 3 (2.6%)

If you combine the success of 7-seeds through 11-seeds you'll see a total of 14 teams (12.1%).

- - -

So of course this year, not only did two of those make the Final Four, but they made the title game and one of them obviously one it all.

To sum up:
History of 7-seeds or below making the Final Four over the last 29 years: 12.1%
7-seeds or below making the Final Four this year: 50%.

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