Monday, December 30, 2019

Making the Case for NFL Playoff Teams

The list of teams that can win Super Bowl LIV has been narrowed from 32 to 12. Here's the case for and against all of them.


Baltimore Ravens

FOR

They've been the best, hottest and most consistent team in the league.
They've won 12 in a row.
They have the 2019 MVP, Lamar Jackson.
They'll have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
They have an electric offense, strong defense and elite special teams too.
Even playing 2nd string, they can crush a wild-card level team.
On paper, they don't really have any weaknesses.
They're the Vegas favorite to win the damn thing for a reason.
They've beat excellent teams this year.

AGAINST

Lamar Jackson is 0-1 in the playoffs.
Lamar Jackson's Ravens are 0-2 vs the Chiefs.
If you're making parallels to last year, this year's Ravens are last year's Chiefs. Young QB takes the league by storm and gets crowned the MVP. A team that had so much success and didn't have to face that much adversity. And last year the MVP came up one defensive stop short of getting to the Super Bowl.
Perhaps they peaked in November?


Kansas City Chiefs

FOR

They were one play away from the Super Bowl with a crappy defense and over the last month, their defense has been a top 5 unit.
They're peaking at the right time, entering the postseason with a 6-game winning streak.
They beat the Ravens and Patriots this year.
They've won in heat, snow and at altitude.
They have the reigning MVP, Patrick Mahomes.
Earning the bye and a week to rest + prepare, plus getting a home game is a big boost.
They've seemed like the only team that can handle Lamar Jackson.
Damien Williams has fresh legs.

AGAINST

The offense hasn't put up numbers like they did last year.
The defense has had moments of weakness, at the end of the Titans game and the Colts stampede come to mind.
Although mostly healthy now, the team has battled injuries all year. Their chemistry with each other is probably not at it's peak.
The injury to Juan Thornhill (safety) could prove costly.
There might be some history of playoff collapses but that was pre-Mahomes so we're not going to even bring that up.


New England Patriots

FOR

At times this defense has looked like a historically great unit.
They still have Brady and Belichick and that's usually been more than enough.
This team started 8-0.
They still have their first game at home and have shown they can win in Arrowhead in the playoffs.
Betting against the Patriots has historically been a bad call.

AGAINST

They finished 4-4.
This team lost at home to Miami when they really wanted to win.
Brady really doesn't have anyone to throw to.
Brady's numbers from this year are average to below average.
The Chiefs and Texans and Ravens all beat the Patriots.


Houston Texans

FOR 

Their QB is Deshaun Watson. In 2016 he lost in the National Championship Game. In 2017 he came back and won the National Championship. Would not surprise me at all if he puts the team on his back.
They beat the Chiefs, Patriots and Titans when it mattered.
They basically used week 17 as a bye and get to play at home in a dome their first game.

AGAINST

Their coaching is suspect.
JJ Watt was injured and even if he comes back is unlikely to be at full strength.
Got blown out by the Ravens.
Doesn't seem to be on same level as the three teams above them.


Buffalo Bills

FOR

They're a tough out.
They played the Ravens close.
They beat the Dolphins twice, which is more than the Patriots can say.
Crazier things have happened.

AGAINST

They're not ready yet.
Winning one game would be a success.


Tennessee Titans

FOR

With Tannehill, this team has been as good as anyone.
Derrick Henry can run through anything.
Vrabel has them playing and believing.
They beat good teams.

AGAINST

Their path is brutal. On the road at New England. On the road at Baltimore. On the road at Kansas City.
At some point, everyone's going to see that he's still Tannehill.
They couldn't beat the Texans in week 15 when they had a chance to win the division.


NFC

San Francisco 49ers

FOR

They have an incredibly strong resume of wins.
They're both battle tested/coming in hot + get a bye to recover.
Kittle is a monster that can take a game over.
Their defense can keep them in any game.
Homefield matters. Won't have to go to Superdome or Lambeau. In fact, won't have to play both Packers and Saints.

AGAINST

They lack playoff experience.
Their QB isn't a top-5 QB.
A lot of their games were close and could have swung either way. Only takes one fluky play to knock a team out of the playoffs.


Green Bay Packers

FOR

Haven't seemed that impressive but still got a bye. If they turn it on more, watch out.
Never had the lead in both Lions games but won both. They find a way to win.
Aaron Rodgers winning his second Super Bowl seems like it should happen one of these years.
No longer coached by Mike McCarthy.

AGAINST

Haven't seemed that impressive.
Never had the lead in both Lions games.
Got blown out by 49ers.


New Orleans Saints

FOR

Have been on the doorstep 3 years in a row.
Playing well on both sides of the ball.
Coaching advantage.
Drew Brees + Michael Thomas is a winning combination.
First opponent is a Minnesota Miracle revenge game.

AGAINST

Calls and breaks seem to go against them.


Philadelphia Eagles

FOR 

Nobody believes in them which they rode to a SB win two years ago.
Wentz wants his time to shine.

AGAINST

They've played like dogshit most of the year.


Seattle Seahawks

FOR

Played the most crazy games of the year and won a ton of them.
Russell Hustle and Bustle can pull off crazy stuff.
Beast Mode is apparently a thing again and would be a fun story.
Have a better record than their first opponent.
Know they can beat the 49ers.

AGAINST

Still a tough road to win four games.
Seemed like they lost a bit of their magic.


Minnesota Vikings

FOR

Anything can happen?
If Dalvin Cook is healthy, they've got a chance.

AGAINST

Minnesota Miracle revenge game likely to be one and done.
Tough draw.
Kirk Cousins.




I've technically made 24 cases. 12 will be correct.

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