Monday, December 23, 2019

Average QB in 2019, Revisited

3 weeks into the season, I looked at what it means to be an average quarterback in 2019.

Now that the regular season is essentially complete, it's time to look back and see what we can learn.

First let's see the current 2019 passing stats:

ANY/A



Passer Rating


By ANY/A the 5 most average QBs of 2019 are:
Goff
Keenum
Brady
Wentz
Winston

By Passer Rating the 5 most average QBs of 2019 are:
Ryan
Minshew
Rivers
Brissett
Jones

No overlap of our two metrics. Hmmm.

By combining metrics, the two most average passers this year were Brady and Ryan.

Three weeks in, I had identified Ryan, Bridgewater and Dalton. Here's how they ended up in both metrics, out of 32/33 guys:

Ryan: 20th and 15th
Bridgewater: did not qualify but finished with a 6.67 ANY/A (12th place) and 98.9 rating (11th place)
Dalton: 29th and 32nd

So Ryan stayed average all year.
Dalton plummeted.
And Bridgewater improved, albeit in a small sample size.

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The original question was about Jacoby Brissett and although he started the season above average, he finished below average.

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One note, that we could have predicted. The average ANY/A and Passer Rating went down slightly comparing a full season to just the first three weeks. The extreme highs came back to earth and the extreme lows became more respectable. Smaller sample size allows for more extremes.

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Worth noting the 2018 leader in ANY/A: Patrick Mahomes
The current 2019 leader in ANY/A: Patrick Mahomes

Last year he attempted 580 passes. This year, he missed time due to injury and has attempted 459 with one regular season game to go.

2018: 5097 yards, 50 touchdowns, 12 int (2.1% int rate), rating 113.8, ANY/A 8.89
2019: 3857 yards, 25 touchdowns, 4 int (.9 % int rate), rating 106.6, ANY/A 8.51

Got injured, touchdowns number came down, but also improved on interceptions. Still the best passer in the league by ANY/A for both seasons he's played.

Fastest QB to 9,000 passing yards.
Fastest QB to 75 touchdowns.

It's only two seasons, but he'll have a shot at the all-time records.

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