What's an Average Quarterback in 2019?

It started with an innocent comment on the Ringer NFL Show podcast. "If Jacoby Brissett is an above-average quarterback, and I think he is, then the Colts can make the playoffs."

That got me thinking lots of things.

What is an average quarterback these days?
Is Brissett above-average?
I'm assuming average today is better than average from a generation ago, but is that true?
Is 3 weeks enough of a sample size to determine who's average?

That's lots of questions. Let's get some answers.

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I'm going to use two metrics, Passer Rating (a metric I grew up with) and ANY/A (a new-school advanced stat). [I don't like and won't use QBR, which is a ESPN-owned stat with a secret formula.] I'll be using median as my average both for ease of use and to best capture the idea of a middle of the pack QB. Here's what ANY/A is, by the way:

Here are the current stats for 2019, through week 3:

Passer Rating

ANY/A

By Passer Rating, the most middle of the pack QB is Derek Carr. Here are the 5 most average QBs by passer rating, currently:

By ANY/A, the most middle of the pack QB is Bridgewater. (The sample grew by two up to 37, that's why 19th place is median here.)

So the answer to the most average QBs through 3 weeks include Matt Ryan, Teddy Bridgewater and Andy Dalton by both metrics. That's our model of average QB play (again, using a small sample size so far.) Incidentally, Brees fared a lot better in ANY/A, Carr a lot worse. Keenum and Mariota are both top 10 QBs in passer rating. 

As for Jacoby Brissett, he's 6th and 14th in both stats, above-average so far. 

To answer if 3 weeks is enough of a sample size, I'll have to return later in the year and do it again to see if we still come up with Ryan, Bridgewater and Dalton and to see if the numbers went up or down. 

To compare full seasons across the history of the league, I'm going to find the averages for passing rating for full seasons for 2018, 2008, etc. until 1968, the early years of the Super Bowl era. 

2018: Cam Newton 94.2

2008: Jay Cutler 86.0

1998: Steve McNair 80.1

1988: Doug Williams 77.4

1978: Jim Hart 66.7

1968: Roman Gabriel 70.0

So my hypothesis that the average QB play has gone up was confirmed, but holy shit. Kind of crazy, that the football I grew up watching from 88-98, the average passer rating was between 77 and 80. Last year only 3 QBs had that low of a passer rating, all rookies: Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Josh Rosen. 

Even though we know how it will go, let's go ahead and do the same with the ANY/A numbers. 

2018: Kirk Cousins 6.48

2008: Eli Manning 6.00

1998: Steve McNair 5.53

1988: Steve DeBerg 5.16

1978: Gary Danielson 4.39

1968: no ANY/A stats available

Yep, QB numbers continue to improve and show no signs of stopping. The 70's and 80's were rough to watch.