on gambling

This story inspired this post.

A man put $100 on the Rays to win the WS last year at 250 to 1. That's $25,000.

Marger's Scenario
Rays Win= +25,000
Phillies Win= -100

That's very interesting.

But the last line of the article says that if the Phillies win, he has a bet that will give him $3000. Research shows that Vegas had the Phillies at +$1.15, meaning if you bet 100, you'll win $115.

So, for this example I'll take him at his word and say he put $2,608 on the Phillies.

Marger's New Scenario
Rays Win: +25,000 -2608 = +22,392
Phillies Win: +3,000 -100 = +2,900

That's a win-win.

Obviously, the best case scenario after you placed the first bet is win 25,000. But what if you wanted the safest scenario?

All you'd have to do is put $11,674 on the Phillies to win.

Safest Scenario
Rays Win: +25,000 -11674 = +13,326
Phillies Win: +13,426 -100 = +13,326

So what would you do?

I certainly would rather have this:

Marger's New Scenario
Rays Win: +25,000 -2608 = +22,392
Phillies Win: +3,000 -100 = +2,900

than this:

Marger's Scenario
Rays Win= +25,000
Phillies Win= -100

But I'd probably wouldn't go as far as the safest scenario. I might go ahead and put like 4000 or 4500 on the Phillies to hedge my bets a little more though.