picking seeds

Let's talk watermelons. No?

- - -

When I was younger, probably around high school, I didn't think there was much difference in the seeding for the big dance. I figured once you're in, you've got a shot to win. (And you could still make the argument that the reason the high seeds do well is because they're the better teams, and not because of their draw.)

But clearly whether you're Kentucky or Illinois this year, you want a favorable draw. Given the status of Illinois this year, I figured I'd take a look at what (reasonable) seed would be the best.

What I mean, is discounting the top 7 seeds, what seed would you want to be?

My starting point is that the 8/9 seeds are no good. Even if you manage to win the first game, you're on a collision course with the #1 seed.

By the same token, the #10 seed would face the #2 in the second round.

Of course, the #16 and #15 are even worse, facing those teams in the first round.

So let's take a look at the road to the sweet sixteen, for the 11-14 seeds.

11: vs #6, vs #3
12: vs #5, vs #4
13: vs #4, vs #5
14: vs #3, vs #6

Right away, I can eliminate the 14 seed, based on their first round matchup.

11-13 all look pretty good. As the #11, I don't mind potentially facing #3 in the second round, if I've already won a game. For #13, you could factor in the possibility that you're more likely to get a #12 in the second round. But still, I think there's a big distinction between the 4 seeds and the 5 seeds, and I'd prefer not to face the #4 in the first round.

So not only does #12 look good on paper, but you have the boost in confidence from being the traditional "upset" favorite in the first round.

So just numerically, here is my preference for best seeds in the bottom half of the bracket:

12
11
13
14
10
8
9
15
16

- - -

I could stop there, but what about the top 7 seeds?

Sure 1-3 is the best in order. But I'm not a big fan of being 4/5 because of facing #1 in the sweet sixteen.

1
2
3
6
4
5
7

- - -

I'd even rather be a #12, #11, and #13, than a #7.

(This post was written last Saturday during the Illinois-Ohio State game, but future posted after the auction date.)