illini basketball 10-11 preview

On 10.31.09 I wrote:

2001-02 Football: Sugar Bowl
2004-05 Basketball: Championship Game
2007-08 Football: Rose Bowl

If you believe in patterns, you should get excited about the 2010-11 Illini Basketball team.

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First a bit of background on recruiting rankings. Before the incoming players of 2009, here was how Illinois had ranked according to Rivals.com.

2008 Commits: not in top 30
2007 Commits: not in top 30
2006 Commits: not in top 25
2005 Commits: not in top 25
2004 Commits: not in top 45
2003 Commits: #19

Basically, their records don't go back far enough, or deep enough to show the Illini recruiting classes.

But first some case studies to see if these are helpful guides.

Case Study #1: The 2009-10 Duke Blue Devils

They won the Championship. Looking at the championship box score, 5 guys played almost the whole game: Scheyer, Smith, Singler, Thomas and Zoubek.

Here was the incoming class of 2006 for Duke:


And 2007:


The #5 class for 2006 and #8 for 2007. And all five championship starters were identified four years prior as some of the best in the country.

Case Study #2: The 2008-2009 MSU Spartans

They lost in the Championship game. They had a larger rotation, led by Lucas, Summers and Suton.

They picked up Suton in 2004 and red-shirted him:


Here's 2006:


And 2007:


So across four years, they had three classes in the 11-20 range which eventually got them to the national championship game.

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Last year we welcomed the incoming Illini of 2009:

Richardson (p-town!) and Paul headlined last year's freshmen; Bertrand was red-shirted. The #14 ranked class was the best on record for Illinois.

This year our freshman class is ranked even better, at #13:


Here's a rough look at our 2010 roster/rotation:

C - Tisdale, Senior
F - Davis, Senior
G - McCamey, Senior
G - Richardson, Sophomore
G - Paul, Sophomore
F - Griffey, Sophomore
F - Richmond, Freshman
C - Leonard, Freshman
G - Head, Freshman

With senior leadership and young depth, this team has a lot of potential. And because I trust Vegas on these sort of things, here are the futures for this year's final four:


According to Vegas, there are 9 teams with better odds. We're at the same level as 8 other teams before the next tier--so in the top 17. We're currently ranked 16th, so that seems about right for a preseason projection. They've got us as the 3rd best team in the Big Ten, behind MSU and OSU.

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Here's the thing though. Signing for next year's team is already going on/almost done. And for next year, we're ranked even better:


So to take an early look at the 2011-12 roster:

G - Richardson, Junior
G - Paul, Junior
F - Griffey, Junior
F - Richmond, Sophomore
C - Leonard, Sophomore
G - Head, Sophomore
F - Henry, Freshman
G - Abrams, Freshman
F - Shaw, Freshman
C - Egwu, Freshman

Or as the cool Illini blog A Lion Eye put it:



And since the 2011-12 team doesn't have any seniors, unless some leave early, the the 2012-13 team should only get better.

To sum up: The next four years of Illini basketball should be pretty darn good.