Last year, I looked at the Vegas odds for making the Final Four. Illinois was 3rd on the list of Big Ten teams, behind MSU and OSU.
MSU was a #10 seed, losing in the second round.
OSU was a #1 seed but lost in the Sweet 16.
Illinois was a #9 seed, losing in the second round.
So Vegas was a little hit or miss, perhaps overrating MSU's experience.
Regardless, I trust Vegas lines more than I trust a sportswriter's conference preview. I'd prefer odds to win the Big Ten, but I can't find that right now. So I'll rank the odds for the Big Ten teams plus the favorite for reference.
North Carolina 3/1
Ohio State 17/2
Michigan State 25/1
Indiana 30/1
Michigan 35/1
Wisconsin 55/1
Illinois 75/1
Minnesota 75/1
Purdue 75/1
Right now, Vegas has Illinois as tied for 7th best in the Big Ten, with only 3 teams behind them.
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And as opposed to the last three years, the recruits for incoming fall 2012 are not in the top 25. I'm getting my info from A Lion Eye, Jalen James and Malcolm Hill might be good players for us, but it seems that our 2012-2013 roster won't have a ton more talent than our 2011-2012 roster.
Which is sort of a shame, because this year we don't have any seniors. Meaning if we're good this year, we have the chance to go to great next year.
But despite three top-25 recruiting classes in a row:
Juniors: Richardson, Paul, Griffey
Sophomores: Leonard, Head
Freshmen: Henry, Shaw, Abrams, Egwu, Langford, Djimbe
(incoming 2012: Hill, Orris, James)
It doesn't seem that Vegas thinks we're going to be that good, but looking at that list we have a ton of incoming freshmen. So we'll see. Maybe they're better than advertised?
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