Tuesday, January 15, 2013

NFL Calcutta Math or The Road To A Three-Peat

We've played two NFL Calcutta seasons. I've won the most money in both. I want that three-peat.

I've owned the Super Bowl winning team both times.

There are four teams remaining and I own two of them. The home team in each conference.

Current Leaders:
Matt 27.60 - 49ers
Dave 27 - Pats, Falcons
Savan - 17.40 - Ravens


8 Scenarios

1. SF over BAL
Matt 46.20
Dave 27
Savan 22.20

2. SF over NE
Matt 46.20
Dave 31.80
Savan 17.40

3. ATL over BAL
Dave 45.60
Matt 27.60
Savan 22.20

4. ATL over NE
Dave 50.40
Matt 27.60
Savan 17.40

5. BAL over SF
Savan 36
Matt 32.40
Dave 27

6. BAL over ATL
Savan 36
Dave 31.80
Matt 27.60

7. NE over ATL
Dave 50.40
Matt 27.60
Savan 17.40

8. NE over SF
Dave 45.60
Matt 32.40
Savan 17.40


CONCLUSIONS
As you might expect, who ever owns the SB winner, will be your Calcutta winner.
With half of the teams, I will win the Calcutta in half of the scenarios.
Savan can't finish in 2nd place. He will finish in 3rd, unless Baltimore wins the SB and he finishes in 1st.
Pats are a 9 point home favorite. If we assume a Pats victory, 3 of the 4 remaining scenarios give me the title.
49ers are a 5 point road favorite. If we assume a 49ers victory, 1 of the 4 remaining scenarios give me the title.
Having both teams in the Super Bowl is not "significantly" better than just having the winner only (difference between 50.40 and 45.60 for me)
Matt's current lead of sixty cents doesn't come into play at all.


2 comments:

  1. Next year, I want to be in the bottom row of the Calcutta spreadsheet.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I just noticed that you paid the same for the Falcons as I paid for the Lions. I'm terrible at Calcutta.

    ReplyDelete