Big Ten Bowl Games can be confusing. Before we get into the conference bowl games, let's take a step back to remind us of the modern bowl/playoff landscape.
The top 6 bowls are called the New Year's Six:
Cotton
Peach
Fiesta
Rose
Sugar
Orange
Every year, two of those six get designated as the Playoff Semifinal.
Which means for Big Ten purposes, there can be four categories of years.
Category #1: Rose is not playoff game, Big Ten has no playoff team
This is the classic. The Rose Bowl is the top bowl for the Big Ten. This just happened in 2018-2019 with Ohio State representing the Big Ten.
Category #2: Rose is not playoff game, Big Ten has playoff team
This is the case when the Rose Bowl is the #2 bowl for the Big Ten. This happened in 2016-2017. Ohio State made the playoffs and went to the Fiesta Bowl, so Penn State got the Rose Bowl.
Category #3: Rose is playoff game, Big Ten has no playoff team
In this scenario, the Big Ten misses the playoffs and the Rose Bowl. This happened in 2017-2018. 3 Big Ten teams still made the New Year's Six: Ohio State in Cotton, Penn State in Fiesta, Wisconsin in Orange.
Category #4: Rose is playoff game, Big Ten has playoff team
In this case, the Big Ten has a playoff team but the Rose Bowl is off-limits for the rest of the conference. This happened in 2014-2015. Conference ties to bowl games mean nothing in this situation as Ohio State played in the Sugar Bowl playoff game and the Rose Bowl was a playoff game between Oregon and Florida State.
- - -
For a team like Illinois, it's better when the Rose is not a playoff game. And it's better when the Big Ten has a playoff team as everyone moves up a slot. (In fact, that's exactly how Illinois got to the 2008 Rose Bowl as a 9-3 team.)
As luck would have it, Category #2 is what's projected to happen this year as the Rose is not a playoff game and Ohio State is projected to make the playoffs. So I suppose Illinois should want Ohio State to win out, clearing the way for every team to move up a notch.
- - -
This year's Big Ten affiliated bowls:
(playoffs)
Rose - Pasadena
Citrus - Orlando
Outback - Tampa
Holiday - San Diego
Gator - Jacksonville
Pinstripe - New York
Redbox - Santa Clara
Quick Lane - Detroit
Armed Forces - Fort Worth
Real talk, Detroit is a cruel joke. At least Fort Worth is warm. New York is cool, but if I was a player, I'd want anything in Florida or California. I've seen Illinois projected in at least 5 different bowls and they're still two games to play so a lot will depend on their finish. Iowa and Illinois are currently 7th & 8th in overall Big Ten standings.
Here's another way of looking at it. 14 teams in the Big Ten. Illinois is one of 8 teams that has clinched a bowl. 3 cannot become eligible. 3 teams are still in the running. Purdue has to beat Wisconsin, so I feel comfortable crossing them off. Nebraska would have to beat Iowa or Wisconsin. Michigan State sitting on 4 wins just needs to win 2 of 3 vs Michigan, Rutgers and Maryland.
But it's very likely that Illinois will finish 7th or 8th in the conference. If the Big Ten gets a playoff team, then 7th/8th would be roughly New York or Santa Clara. It would stink if Redbox Bowl picked Michigan State over Illinois and bumped the Illini to the Quick Lane. But really, the motto for me is just to avoid Detroit.
No comments:
Post a Comment