Then the Chiefs lost two games (Colts and Texans) in part because Mahomes was reaggravating his ankle injury, in part because there were a ton of injuries all over specifically the O-line and D-line, and the run D got exposed as a huge liability. And then, the number one thing you don't want to happen, Mahomes gets seriously injured and has to miss significant time.
He got injured with 10 minutes to go in the 2nd quarter in a game the Chiefs were leading 10-6 in Denver. (Lost in the injury, Mahomes did pick up the 4th and 1 on the QB sneak.) At the point of the injury, the Chiefs were 4-2, clinging to a small lead on the road. He was immediately ruled out. The first timetable speculated that he could return after the bye. Counting the Denver game that still had 40 minutes to play out, that's 5 games hanging in the balance.
Lose them all and your 4-0 start is now 4-7.
Here's a famous quote. When asked why he wasn't giving some snaps to Peyton's backups, Offensive Coordinator Tom Moore said, "Fellas, if '18' goes down, we're fucked. And we don't practice fucked."
Great quote. And one that the Chiefs apparently abided by, as Matt Moore had exactly 0 reps with the starters. The first time Matt Moore had thrown a pass to Kelce was during the Denver game.
In a league where we've been taught that Quarterbacks are everything, it's not hard to imagine Moore throwing picks and losing 5 games for a team that just lost two in a row with the league MVP.
But that's not what happened.
On the very first drive following the Mahomes injury, the Chiefs D stepped it up. Hitchens knocked the ball out of Flacco's hands and Ragland scooped it up for a TD.
And then in the second half, Moore lofted a perfect 30-yard pass over the defense to Hill who had daylight in front of him. The final in Denver was 30-6. The D pitched a shutout and Moore made nice plays. (Fun fact, Hill had missed some of the early games and while he was rehabbing with the backups he was receiving passes from...Matt Moore.)
The next week was a great back and forth game vs the Packers. The Chiefs were in it to the end, but Rodgers and Jones made a bunch of spectacular plays and the Packers edged the Chiefs. The KC D looked improved despite the loss and Moore played well enough to win.
Then the Vikings came to town. The KC defense was again better than it had been against the Colts/Texans. Moore played well again.
But here's the thing I want to say about the game. If you lose this game, those strong performances are all for naught. If you lose to the Packers and Vikings, both home games, it doesn't matter that you were close. You can get blown out like the Panthers did by the 49ers or lose close like Chiefs did to the Packers and it counts the same in the standings. And it would be a real shame to have improved defense and good QB play, but drop two home games in a row. I'd much rather be like the Panthers and get blown out but win the following week.
So yesterday's game was huge.
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I came in not knowing what to expect. After a big strike from Moore to Hill, I was pleased. And at the half, it was 10-10. Pretty comfortable.
Hardman fumbling the 2nd half kickoff was deflating, followed by a quick Vikings TD. But they missed the extra point. That was promising. The Chiefs would follow with two scores, making it 20-16 KC. That included a Williams 91-yard TD run. Longest in the league this year. Tied Charles for longest in franchise history.
At this point, up 20-16, entering the 4th, I expected to win. I wanted, needed this win.
The Vikings get a TD making it 23-20.
Pivotal Event #1
With 9 minutes to go, Williams converts a 3rd and 1 to the MIN 39. Except there's a flag. Holding on Kelce. Replay shows he was grabbing the Viking by the chest, inside the framework as they say. So instead of being on the fringe of field goal range, KC has 3rd and 11 on their own 40. Then the Vikings fan in the crowd start a Skol chant. So the Chiefs fans try to drown them out with the Chop. Seriously? It's 3rd and 11 and the Chiefs have the ball. It's so loud, Cam Erving commits a false start. Viking fans outsmarted and outmaneuvered Chiefs fans at Arrowhead. And then on 3rd and 16, the pass rush sacks Moore. Went from 1st and 10 on the MIN 39 to 4th and 27 on KC 24 in the blink of eye.
Pivotal Event #2
Seven minutes to go, Chiefs are down 3 and need a stop. On 2nd and 10, they get Cook for a 3 yard loss. And on 3rd and 13, the Vikings try to run again. 3 and out. Big stop.
Pivotal Event #3
Ensuing drive, Matt Moore goes to Hill on back-to-back plays. First to convert a 3rd and 7, and then a 41-yard bomb. Sometimes throwing it up for Hill is the best play. It's 1st and 10 inside the 20 and I'm thinking the 3 is guaranteed, let's get 7.
Pivotal Event #4
Two plays later it's 3rd and 13 and the Vikings send the house. It's so important, we're getting screenshots. Note the game clock. Play starts with 3:27.
At 3:26, Moore has a defender in his face.
At 3:25, Moore is hit and the ball is out.
Still at 3:25, Moore has hit the dirt. The ball is out, on the ground. The Viking that hit Moore is jumping over him while 97 is right there ready to get the ball.
At 3:24, Moore's momentum has carried him into this position. He looks dead. 97 is a step closer.
Still at 3:24, 97 is grabbing for the ball.
If the Vikings get the ball right there, odds are they run the clock out. Last week the Packers ran the ball out with 5 minutes left. But the Vikings don't get the ball. Moore is able to somehow recover the fumble. It's hard to say if he got the perfect bounce off the ground or he made a perfect grab with his right arm, or both, but he maintained possession. All of that to set up:
Pivotal Event #5
Harrison Butker now has a 54-yard field goal attempt. Let's flash back to his previous attempt. That one was a 45-yarder in heavy wind. Note the flags at the top of the uprights.
Here's where that kick started...
and here's where it ended up. That kick was good, moving a ton from his right to left.
So now it's the 4th quarter and it's time for the 54-yarder in crunch time. Announcer says he's 0 for 2 on the year from 50+. But I think he's going to make it.
Here it is on it's way: dead center.
And clearing it by a few yards.
And just like my point earlier...if you blow this game now, it was all for naught. 2:30 for the Vikings and they only need a field goal.
Pivotal Event #6
This time it's 3 pass attempts for Cousins and the Chiefs D holds to -7 yards. 3 and out. Punting on 4th and 17. The Vikings are scared of Hill and the punt goes out of bounds at the MIN 45.
Pivotal Event #7
On back to back Chiefs offensive plays, Moore is sacked immediately and fumbled. Poor blocking again. This time Williams recovers. But Chiefs are back on their own 44, 2nd and 21.
Big time throws to Kelce and then Hill gets them back in field goal range so Butker can do this:
Pivotal Event #8
He just made one from 54, so 44 shouldn't be a problem right? Well, unless the Vikings get a hand on it. Which they do.
The ball comes out wonky. It's not high and strong, it's low and wobbly. But it goes through all the same. Just incredible.
You go back and look at the 8 pivotal events I marked in the 4th quarter alone. The first killed a Chiefs drive. The next seven were all examples of Chiefs being good or lucky, or both at the same time. That's what it takes to complete a late comeback. And it was great to watch.
Defense came up big.
Offense came up big.
Special teams, coaching, all of it.
Some days, sports makes you question why you would bother investing time and money into an experience that is just as likely to ruin your day or bring you joy. And some days the question answers itself.
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Points per Possessions, wins in bold
Week 1: Chiefs 4.44, Jaguars 2.88
Week 2: Chiefs 2.8, Raiders 1
Week 3: Chiefs 3.66, Ravens 3.11
Week 4: Chiefs 2.83, Lions 2.5
Week 5: Chiefs 1.44, Colts 2.11
Week 6: Chiefs 2.67, Texans 3.44
Week 7: Chiefs 2.5, Broncos .5
Week 8: Chiefs 2.67, Packers 3.44
Week 9: Chiefs 2.17, Vikings 1.92
I was hoping to draw conclusions about when the offense gets a certain number this happens, but it's not quite that clear. What is clear, is that you can assign credit/blame based on these numbers.
Week 1: Offense win
Week 2: Defense win
Week 3: Offense win
Week 4: Offense win
Week 5: Offense loss
Week 6: Defense loss
Week 7: Defense win
Week 8: Defense loss
Week 9: Defense win
In the 6 games Mahomes played, the credit/blame went to Offense 4 times and Offense was 3-1. Defense was 1-1.
In the 3 games Moore played, the credit/blame went to Defense all 3 times and Defense was 2-1.
Overall, Offense is 3-1 and Defense is 3-2.
All things considered, a pretty good sign for the playoffs.
Speaking of playoffs...
Here are the AFC teams that are .500 or better:
The Chiefs are going to win their division. Which means they'll be one of the top 4 teams and have a home playoff game in January. Assuming that the team stays healthy, the only team I'm afraid of is the Patriots. Now the Ravens did show that the Patriots are a mortal team and a product of an easy schedule, but still. I'd rather the Ravens knock out the Patriots in January and avoid playing New England all together.
If KC were to finish 13-3, that would include a win over NE and NE would likely drop at least one more, which would give KC homefield...but I don't think KC will win out. Too many games even with Mahomes coming back. 11-5 is realistic for KC.
Still possible that NE stumbles down the stretch, but I think they will still be the #1 seed at this point.
If that's true and I want the Ravens to face them, then I'm hoping Baltimore finishes 4th. Chiefs or Texans in 2/3 would be fine, but #2 gets a bye and the game at home.
(This of course hinges on the wild-card teams losing, which obviously could happen although I'm not expecting that right now, especially with the Brissett injury.)
Bottom line, even if NE takes the top seed, every win matters as you'd rather be 2 than 3, and 3 instead of 4.
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Around the league this year we've seen backups do well (Brissett, Minshew, Moore, Allen in Carolina) just as much as we've seen starters be disappointing (Trubisky, Dalton, Mayfield, Darnold).
In fact, let's look at some numbers for fun. Here's the whole league sorted by adjusted net yards per attempt.
(click to read in HD)
So there's consensus 2019 MVP favorite Russell Wilson there at #2.
For a bit of context, a middle of the pack running back is averaging 4.4 yards per carry in 2019. So Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen are the only two quarterbacks who are worse than running the ball.
Let's say I wanted to find the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. I can't count Rosen. So your Mount Rushmore of Shit QBs this year are Darnold, Trubisky, Mayfield and Jones.
Jimmy G is a top 10 QB. Brissett and Minshew are knocking on the door, ahead of Lamar and Brady.
Matt Moore's not on the above chart because of small sample size, but here's his stats:
If he qualified, he'd be 13th in the league, above Lamar Jackson and Tom Brady. Fun!
So what does that say that Matt Moore who was never really a starter and was out of the league last year can come in and be better than these guys? Coaching matters. I bet Mayfield and Trubisky would do really well under Andy Reid and if Mahomes had been drafted by the Bengals, his stats would probably be middle of the pack.
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And now that we've established how bad Trubisky is...I'll end on a positive note for the Chiefs pass defense.
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