NFL Takeaways - Gambling Manifesto

This year, Mark and I added picking a spread to our fantasy football rosters. So far, I've earned 75 out of 90 points, he's earned 40 out of 90.

Here are some of my overall thoughts/guidelines on the league which can be helpful when picking spreads.


1. Don't be afraid of teams that just had an uncharacteristic bad game. Don't get suckered in by teams that had one impressive win.

Two weeks ago the Panthers got blown out on the road in SF. So this week against the Titans, they were only favored by 3.5. I thought that line was way too low. What have the Titans done?

Likewise, the Browns beat the Jets in week 2, 23-3. So in week 3, the Rams were only favored by 3 points over the Browns. I thought the Rams were on a different level than the Browns and picked them to cover the 3.

2. Be wary of QB changes, when the first QB isn't that good. 

The Broncos and Flacco are bad. Flacco got hurt last week sticking his neck out and would be out. The Browns were favored by 3.5 over the Broncos. I might have liked the Browns vs Flacco, but ruled them out when facing an unknown QB. Always be aware of the boost a team can get from benching a bad QB.

3. Be careful in the division.

The 49ers were favored by 10 over the Cardinals, in part because of their huge win over the Panthers (see #1). That seemed way too high for a division game. I thought Kyler Murray would steal a divisional game here or there and I like the Cardinals +10.

4. Don't be afraid of high lines against truly horrific teams.

I can see how this can backfire, but I went 3-0 backing the Pats over Dolphins (18.5), Chargers over Dolphins (16.5) and Eagles over Jets (13.5). Yes that's a ton of points, but when you recognize a historically bad team, go for it.

5. Don't be fooled thinking the Transitive Property exists in the NFL

The Chiefs beat the Ravens, the Ravens beat the Patriots, therefore the Chiefs will beat the Patriots, right? Nope. These circles break all the time. I don't pay attention to specific wins, just focus on the larger picture.

6. Bad teams will beat good teams, good teams will lose to bad teams.

The Browns (now 2-6) beat the Ravens (now 6-2). The Packers just lost to the Chargers. It happens. But the Browns don't become good when it does. This happens for the Titans and Bucs all the time. They win 1 or 2, and people will change their notion of them. They must be good now. No. I guess this is the same as my first point, but it's the biggest trap that people can fall into.

7. Be skeptical of some records.

The 49ers are good, but are they 9-0 good. I didn't think so. I thought they seemed more like an 8-1 team than a 9-0 team, plus the Seahawks are great. So I jumped all over Seahawks +6.5.