Road to Super Bowl LIV: Chapter 4

The game was hanging in the balance and so was the season. If the Chiefs lose last night and they drop to 2nd place in the division at 6-5, there's a real path to them missing the playoffs. If they win, I could make the case for a deep postseason run. It really felt like the season was on the line. So when Rivers connects with Williams for a 50-yard pass in the final minute, I was having flashbacks to last year. In that game KC was up 28-14 but the Chargers came back and scored with 4 seconds left and went for two on the last one to win 29-28. So when the Chargers are driving down 17-24 last night, I was afraid they were going to score and go for two.

The season, the game, all hanging on one drive.

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The two impact players brought onto the Chiefs defense were Tyrann Mathieu and Frank Clark. Throughout most of this year, they've played solidly, but not spectacularly. We've been waiting for plays where the impact the game.

Well, last night both of them showed up. Last night really was the Frank Clark game. He was constantly getting to Rivers, forcing one INT and another that should have been caught. He made a huge 3rd down run stop that should have been the game-ender if the Chiefs offense could have gotten one more first down. And Mathieu made a spectacular interception jumping a route and sparking the team's offense when they hadn't been able to get anything going. (Yes, he also was the one that dropped the pop up. Crazy that he can make a difficult pick but dropped the easy one. If this game ends differently, that play would be a bigger deal for sure.)

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Someone not familiar with the sport might assume that how much a fan enjoys a win or is bothered by a loss should be equal to the final score. Win by a lot is the best, right? Lose by a lot is the worst, right? Someone who knows a little more might think that a close loss is worse than a blowout. But the galaxy brain take is this: enjoyment of wins or suffering of losses is proportional to how much you expected it to happen.

When the Chiefs beat the Raiders 28-10 earlier this year, it wasn't a big deal for me because it's what I expected.
The best wins are the ones where you think you're going to lose. Either a comeback win like Chiefs vs Vikings two weeks ago, or when a collapse seems eminent like last night.

When the Matt Moore-led Chiefs lost to the Packers, it didn't sting that badly because I expected the loss. (It only hurt because the Chiefs tied the game late and gave me hope that they would win.
The worst loss is when you've convinced yourself that your team has the game won, like vs the Titans last week.

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Chiefs 8-0 vs Broncos in last 8.
Chiefs 9-1 vs Raiders in last 10.
Chiefs 10-1 vs Chargers in last 11.

Sure those are cherry picked starting with winning streaks.
If you just look at the last 5 years, the Chiefs are 24-3 in the division.

Beating the Chiefs is so rare for the Chargers, that last year when they won, they printed t-shirts:

Jump back to April, when Keenan Allen was asked about the Chiefs...

Chiefs defense: 4 picks last night

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Not everything was perfect last night. On the last 4 drives of the game, when the Chiefs just needed a field goal, or at the very end, just one more first down, the offense punted the ball 4 straight times.

You can blame conservative Andy Reid or altitude or injuries or whatever, but that's not good enough to win in January.

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But here's the good news, one of the biggest problems for the Chiefs this year has been health. And now they have a bye week.

All of the Chiefs most important units have been injured this year: Mahomes, Hill, Watkins, RBs, O-Line, D-Line. Last night they finally had their starting O-line back for the first time all year, but then more injuries starting popping up. Chiefs were down to one running back for the 2nd half. So this bye week is critical. No more games at altitude. 3 games at home. One at New England. One at Chicago. Get to have Thanksgiving off at home and then after Chicago on Dec 22, get to have Christmas at home too. Last game of the year is at home and then (assuming they can win the division) they get a home playoff game.

3 games at Arrowhead in December to get into a groove and close out the season with a 4th-straight division title.

Fun Fact: Matt Cassel and Tim Tebow have won the AFC West more recently than Philip Rivers.

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The ESPN Playoff Machine is active so I went ahead and picked the outcome of the next 6 weeks of games:

Still a lot up for grabs obviously so I'm not taking this too seriously. I just wanted to get a frame of reference of what's realistic or probable. I don't think the Patriots will finish 15-1, but it was hard to predict them to lose any single game. There's still a good path for Ravens to get the one seed since they own the tiebreaker over New England. In fact, the Ravens should be rooting for the Chiefs to beat the Pats so they'd get the 1 seed and only have to face one of KC/NE.

The path for the Chiefs to get a bye involves winning out:

That's a lot to ask. And even then, they'd have to play the Ravens in the divisional round and the Pats in the conference title game. (Which is basically the same route as without the bye. Yes, it's one more home game but the Chiefs have actually been better on the road, so [shrug emoji].

My dream scenario is one that's not going to happen:

I would love for Baltimore to knock out New England and avoid playing the Patriots. But the Ravens aren't going to fall to the 4th seed.

Incidentally, when doing this, I realized how many great games are coming up.

Yes there's Chiefs/Patriots. But also Ravens/Rams and Ravens/49ers.

And the 49ers have a gauntlet coming up:

Some huge games that will determine home field and then some. That last game vs Seattle could be the difference between a bye and the 5th seed.

A lot of good football to be played.

As for the Chiefs, they just need to focus on the division. Win that, get a home playoff game and get healthy for some tough January games.