Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Your Weekly Chiefs Update: Brutal Loss Edition

Chiefs fans have experienced a number of backbreaking games, often in the playoffs. Because of this, there's this sense among fans that the Chiefs have a knack for losing in awful ways, or that they're cursed, etc. Here's some examples of that conventional wisdom:




Some people both locally and nationally buy in to the lazy narrative that Andy Reid makes more coaching errors in the clutch than other coaches. Time management is often cited, but it can be anything people want it to be. Earlier this year it was too conservative, too much running. This week it was why not run the ball, too aggressive.

After watching Andy Reid week in, week out for 6 years, I can safely say he's an awesome coach, great playcaller, and usually outcoaches the other coach, often by a big margin. He doesn't get credit when things don't fit the narrative that people want or expect. In the Chiefs vs Colts game that I went to, the Colts had used up all three of their second half timeouts with over 11 minutes to go in the game. The Chiefs hadn't used any. If it had been the other way around, it would have become a talking point. Because Andy was on the better end of that one, no one noticed. He's usually on the better end. Any fan that thinks he is the problem, needs to go watch some full game tape of the Herm Edwards (15-33) or Romeo Crennel days (4-15). Reid by the way is 65-31.

Let's dive in to this particular choke job before I get back to my initial point.

The Chiefs were at 98% chance to win with the ball on the Tennessee 24, up 5. On 3rd and 2, they tried a rollout pass (screen?) and it didn't work. This brought up a field goal from the Tennessee 29.

They snapped it before Colquitt was ready and Butker never had a chance to kick it. (Worth noting that bungling this play had the same outcome as missing a field goal, which happens at least 10-20% of the time.

Without timeouts the Titans went 3 for 4, getting plays of 18, 20 and 23 yards. Also got the two-point conversion. So even if the Chiefs had been up 8, the Titans could have tied with the drive they just produced.

With only 23 seconds left, Mahomes got the Chiefs into field goal range but that kick was blocked.

All in all, it was a brutal giveaway. Chiefs convert 3rd and 2 and the game is over. They make either field goal and the worst case scenario is overtime. Or you know, not let Tannehill look like vintage Peyton Manning.

Of course, you could also say that about not fumbling for a scoop and score that kept the Titans in the game. Or stopping a Tannehill scramble on a 3rd down when the Chiefs were up 29-20.

So this was awful. Collapse. Choke job. You name it.

But here's the thing. The Chiefs aren't special. This happens to every team. Every team has allowed big comebacks or lost games they shouldn't have lost.

Saints had the Minnesota Miracle and the Rams no-call game.
Vikings should have won vs the Chiefs last week.
Chargers fumbled on the goal line this year.
Seahawks should have handed it to Marshawn.
The Bears miss kicks, the Lions do it in too many ways to count.
Falcons had a Super Bowl choke job for the ages.
Even the Patriots had the Miami Miracle loss.

This is not a Chiefs thing. This is part of being a fan. It sucks, for sure. But it happens to everyone. It's great when you're on the winning end and it hurts on the losing end.

But KC people need to stop thinking that we're special. We're not cursed. We have Patrick Mahomes. Life goes on.

Last year, the Chiefs were up 28-14 over the Chargers, and they came down and won 29-28 by going for two. I thought the secret was out, that you should just go for two every time against KC because our defense was so bad. The Chiefs ended up hosting the AFC Championship anyways.

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Wilson is the favorite for MVP at +225 but I would bet it anyways because I think he's going to win.

In unrelated news, here's the passing chart sorted by ANY/A from Mahomes all the way down to Brady.



If you take away the 76 passing yards he got in the Denver game where he dislocated his kneecap, Mahomes has over 2500 passing yards in the 7 games he finished.

Because he missed over 2.5 games, he would need to average 400 yards a game through cold December to get to 5000 yards again.

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Worth noting that last year in the AFC Championship, down 3 with 32 seconds left, Mahomes got the Chiefs into field goal range. He did that yesterday with 23 seconds left. When the game is on the line, this guy delivers. You're never really out of the game with him back there.

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Could we get the defensive intensity back that we had with Matt Moore under center though?

What this team really needs more than anything is to get healthy. Get our O-line back. Get our D full strength.

That's why it's a perfect time for a trip to Mexico. Damnit.

Bye week after.

Raiders are 5-4 with Bengals and Jets next, so they'll be 7-4 coming to Arrowhead on December 1.

So uh, this Chargers game in Mexico is important just to be 7-4 as well.

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AFC Remaining Schedules:

Steelers: cupcake
Raiders: easy
Ravens: mixed bag
Patriots: mixed bag
Chiefs: medium
Titans: medium to tough
Texans: tough
Colts: tough
Bills: hard

The Bills are not going to make the playoffs. People will call it a collapse, but really it was an unbalanced schedule.
The Colts will also miss out, due to the Brissett injury and a tough schedule.

Patriots and Ravens will get the byes.
Chiefs and Texans will be 3/4 in some order.
But I think Steelers and Raiders make the playoffs as wild-cards.

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