In Defense of Bill O'Brien

This is kind of weird because the last eleventy posts have been from a Chiefs fan perspective and this one is from the perspective of seeing someone getting raked over the coals...and I'm not sure they deserve it.

First, the complaints surrounding Bill O'Brien coaching performance on Sunday:

1. Should have gone for it on 4th and 1 up 21-0
2. Shouldn't have gone for a fake punt up 24-7
3. These actions are inconsistent in aggression and therefore bad—ie, always go for it or never go for it


1. Should have gone for it on 4th and 1 up 21-0

The context surrounding decision number 1. Everything is going right for the Texans and more specifically everything is going wrong for the Chiefs. At this point, the Chiefs have dropped 7 balls in a row, including a punt. Also had a punt blocked. The Chiefs aren't dead but they are dormant. You don't want to give them any signs of life.

I think the decision to go for it is almost 50-50.

On the one hand, you know the Chiefs will start scoring at some point and you need all the points you can get. Your offense has been rolling pretty well. You have Deshaun Watson. Going up 28-0 would be great. But giving the defense a chance to make a 4th down stop would give them a spark.

Going from 21 to a 24 point margin essentially makes it a four-possession lead as three conversions in a row is unlikely. Taking the field goal adds points without any risk of losing momentum. If it was 4th and 10, you take the 24-0 lead and you're still feeling great. There's no shame in leading 24-0.

As a Chiefs fan, I was hoping they would go for it because I needed something to change. I needed a 4th down stop. And coaches would be better off if they did what opposing fans don't want. Either way you slice it, it's roughly a 50-50 call and you can't kill someone for what they do in that situation.

2. Shouldn't have gone for a fake punt up 24-7

The game is a lot different at this point. KC just got a touchdown in 2 plays. They crowd is into it. The Chiefs just forced a 3 and out. You could sense that the Chiefs players believed in themselves now. It's 4th and 4 on their own 31.

What happens if you punt here? The Chiefs score in less than 2 minutes. How do I know? That's how long their 8-play 90-yard touchdown drive took later in the quarter. If you can see that the reigning MVP is rolling the solution is not give him the ball farther back. The solution is keep the ball.

Again, they needed 4 yards. And they had a play where their guy had the ball in space and needed to make one man miss.

It's actually kind of brilliant. The Texans picked up 2 yards on the run, coming up 2 yards short. If that tackle isn't made and the Texans go down and make it 31-7 with 5 minutes to go...the story is a lot different.

When I saw it was a fake, my heart sank. I thought we were getting the ball and in that split-second it looked like he had the edge.

3. These actions are inconsistent in aggression and therefore bad—ie, always go for it or never go for it

The most obvious reason this is a bad take is that the game had changed. He took the low-risk play when the Texans had the momentum and the crowd was out of it. When the momentum shifted he took a high-risk play to try to stem the tide.

Also, if you're super consistent, you become predictable. By being unpredictable in aggression, you make it more likely for a fake to work.

- - -

The bottom line is that the Chiefs were at least 20 points better than the Texans at home at this point in the season. KC came out rusty and the Texans did a great job to capitalize to build a 24-0 lead and tried to do everything they could to swing the game back. Also, the kickoff return fumble at 24-14 was an even bigger swing and that wasn't a coaching mistake. I thought O'Brien made smart choices. The Chiefs are just better.