Super Bowl LIV: Diving Into The Numbers

The first thing I want to do is take a deeper look at something I posted last week.

Here are the raw numbers from the last two Chiefs seasons.

Chiefs 2018 numbers

Chiefs 2019 numbers

But I don't think that tells the whole story. 

Here's how the Chiefs ranked in 2018:

Offense: 1st

Defense: 24th

And here's how they did in 2019:

Offense: 5th

Defense: 7th

Last year, the Pat Mahomes offense dragged a bottom-half defense to overtime in the AFC Championship Game but the offense never saw the ball in overtime. And many people said if the defense could just improve to league average, 16th, that would be enough to get the Chiefs to the Super Bowl. 

So Veach and Reid overhauled the entire defensive roster including coaching staff and took the D from 24th to 7th in points allowed. 

Back on February 12, 2019, I wrote the following:

This site is nothing if not homer optimism. But last February I predicted a top 5 offense and maybe a top 10 defense. I predicted they would be a Super Bowl Caliber team. This year I'd say the Chiefs, 49ers and Ravens were all Super Bowl Caliber, with Saints, Titans close enough that they could have made it with a few lucky bounces. And then on top of that, I predicted they would go to Miami. I don't get 'em all right. But I nailed these. 

Chiefs 2019

Offense: 5th

Defense: 7th

49ers 2019

Offense: 2nd

Defense: 8th

So the conventional wisdom of Mahomes O vs elite 49ers D is wrong? 49ers scored more points and allowed more too. 

Well, the defenses are basically the same and with the Mahomes injury, I think it's fair to say that these teams are evenly matched on offense and defense. 

Or maybe points for and points against are too old school. Here's the DVOA numbers:

Chiefs better offense, 49ers better defense, Chiefs better special teams. According to this the Super Bowl matchup is the 2nd vs 4th best team in the league. 

- - -

In the first quarter of their playoff games, Chiefs were outscored 31-7.
The rest of the way, Chiefs outscored Texans and Titans 79-34.

49ers outscored opponents 14-7 in the first quarter.
And also outscored them 50-23 the rest of the way.

Mahomes plays at a MVP level all the time. But somehow plays his best when trailing. We just don't get to see it all that often because the Chiefs usually build up a sizable lead.

So the checklist to beating the Chiefs is something like this:

Don't fall behind early
Don't take the early lead
Double team Hill and Kelce, get a great pass rush and keep two spys on each end to prevent him from scrambling.