NFL Offseason: A Look Back

Before we look ahead to next year's playoff contenders, let's look at how the league looked after Super Bowl XL. The Steelers were Champs, the Seahawks had the MVP, and ESPN had their power rankings. This is not to show how bad ESPN was a predicting the 06-07 season, this is to show how much changes from the consensus opinion in the offseason to what actually happens.

Of the top 12 teams, 5 teams made the playoffs: 41.7%

Seahawks (1)
Colts (3)
Patriots (6)
Cowboys (7)
Giants (11)

Of the bottom 12 teams, 2 made the playoffs: 16.7%

Saints (27)
Jets (31)

Of the middle 8, 5 made the playoffs: 62.5%

Bears (13)
Chiefs (14)
Ravens (16)
Chargers (17)
Eagles (18)




In the top half of the league, 8 made the playoffs: 50%
In the bottom half, 4 did: 25%

So clearly, you are more likely to make the playoffs if the collective opinion is that you'll be good. That's no surprise. The biggest surprise is the strength of the teams that are thought to be in the middle of the pack. It's easy to smell a dog, but it's hard to see a breakout year coming.