In order to fairly simulate the Conference Championship games, I'll have to play each game twice, controlling both teams.
I started with the road team, the Saints, to give the Bears the home field advantage of going last, to know the point differential they will have to overcome. I'll play both games with updated rosters, fairly short quarters, and with Chicago as the home team.
Results of simulation controlling the Saints:
Saints 24, Bears 14
The score doesn't tell the whole story of this one--including a wild fourth quarter.
There was no scoring until Brees threw a 12 yard TD pass to Bush with 1:31 left in the 2nd quarter. Down 7-0, the Bears decided to come out throwing and were forced to punt with about a minute to go in the half. With all 3 timeouts, Brees led the Saints down the field and threw another TD with 28 seconds left. 14-0 at the half.
The Saints took control with a scoring drive that lasted almost the entire 3rd quarter. Carney made it 17-0 with 22 seconds remaining in the 3rd quarter. The Bears offense finally got moving in the 4th quarter and Grossman found the endzone with 2:35 to go. The Bears successfully recovered the ensuing onside kick when a Saint knocked a ball that was going out of bounds, back in to play. A 48 yard deep ball to Berrian led to a Bears TD and got them right back in the game, with 2:15 left in the game.
The Saints took over and wanted to add to their lead, knowing the point differential would matter for comparison in the next game. They could have run the clock out, but ended up attempting a 49-yard field goal with about a minute remaining. The attempt was wide left, and the Bears had a chance to win the game. The Saints defense forced a turnover on downs and padded their lead with a last second TD pass to Bush.
The game probably should have ended 17-7, so having it end at 24-14, makes it seem reasonable to declare that with me controlling the Saints, they are 10 points better than the Bears. We'll see if I can beat the Saints by more that 10 when I control the Bears.
Key Stats:
Saints: rush 76 yards, pass 187 yards
Bears: rush 45 yards, pass 126 yards
Brees: 19/25, 3 TD, 0 picks
Grossman: 9/19, 2 TD, 0 picks
McAllister: 6 rush for 12 yards
Bush: 12 rush for 64 yards, 8 rec for 72 yards, 2 TD
Berrian: 5 rec for 96, (long of 48)
maybe i should have stayed with brees in fantasy and taken bush instead of mcallister
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