Comparing Hockey Standings

I'm slightly obsessed with the math of the NHL.

Here are the current standings based on points percentage:

While fair, it still compares an uneven number of games and uses percentages/projection to balance it.

Here's what the standings look like for the top 11 teams, through 45 games played:

Anaheim 69
St. Louis 69
Chicago 67
Pittsburgh 65
San Jose 62
Colorado 61
Boston 60
LA 59
Tampa Bay 58
Montreal 55
Vancouver 55

So there you go. It's basically the same thing. These numbers give you a true way of saying, the Penguins are 4 points behind the Blues. But they also ignore the actual results since the cutoff date. For example, Anaheim went 3-0 since the 45 game mark, giving them the best points percentage in the league. At any rate, this only confirms the validity of the points percentage standings and the ridiculousness of the current standings that have shown the Blackhawks over the Blues all year.

Notes from a 5-course dinner

I recently cooked my first 5-course dinner. Here are some notes before I forget them. 

Appetizer. This was my first time using puff pastry. It was tasty but the onions and gorgonzola were a bit strong/pungent. I would try a pastry puff again, but not this one.

Soup. The recipe was curried pumpkin. I couldn't really discern the curry powder flavor, but I thought the soup was quite good. Better than I expected.

Salad. This was fantastic. The homemade dressing made a ton of difference and I would absolutely make this again. The only thing was that it thickened a bit in the fridge overnight. The recipe calls for chilling at least two hours, overnight is best. But next time I should try and set it out a few hours in advance so it wouldn't be as thick. The homemade croutons were also amazing. I feel like they tasted better when I made them the night before.

Pasta. The only real mistake happened here. The dinner was Sunday night. I made as much as I could Saturday night. On Saturday the squash pasta sauce was perfect. On Sunday it was way too thick. I thought heating it in the pan would thin it out, but it really didn't. I should have saved some of the pasta water or added something to thin it out. Instead it was a bit clumpy and stuck to the pasta in spots, instead of being a sauce that covered it completely.

I combined two recipes and I think the concept and the recipes were both good, just a slight error in execution.

Cookie. We both love skillet cookies, but I had no idea how this would turn out. The answer was perfectly. It was cooked all the way through just how you want it. A little crispy on top, gooey in the middle. Perfect serving size. Definitely making this again.

NFL Network Bullshit

I'm not saying it doesn't make business sense, but this is pretty much bullshit.

http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/Issues/2014/01/13/Media/Thurs-NFL.aspx

The NFL Network is trying to sell the first 8 Thursday night games to a different network. It's revealed that the plan all along for the NFL Network was:

"This has always been the plan -- to use the full-season package to get higher carriage fees and get on Time Warner Cable, then sell off half the package"

Let me get this straight. The NFL puts 13 games on Thursdays on their own network, leading consumers to demand their cable companies carry NFL Network. The NFL makes a ton of money by getting their network on Cable. Then takes away 61.5% of those games. If I was Time Warner I would want 61.5% of my money back.

Not really sure how Simmons can said bad weather ruined his Saints +7.5 pick when he commented on the 100% chance of rain in his article.

From Friday: my 2-part NFL column with Round 2 picks... Bad weather ruined my Saints-Hawks pick, line creeping to 10. http://t.co/OSCHkkP1gf
— Bill Simmons (@BillSimmons) January 11, 2014

My picks in order of confidence

Colts +7
Panthers +1
Seahawks -7.5
Chargers +9.5

What I Miss At Trader Joe's

The first Trader Joe's is set to open in Colorado on Feb 14. The last time I lived in a place with a Trader Joe's was Oak Park, 2.5 years ago. (I did go to a Trader Joe's in December 2011, visiting O'Fallon for Christmas. Had to drive an hour into St. Louis.)

Back in Oak Park, we would joke that we would have to make road trips to the nearest location once we lived in Denver. (Pack ya bags, we're going to Santa Fe!)

Since then, I've adjusted to the local basic grocery stores. But there are legitimately a few things that I haven't been able to replace or replicate.

Now that's it about a month away, I'm asking myself, what do I miss the most?

Here's what came to mind:

Just Mango Slices
No one else does it like this. No sugar. Just dried mango, that's soft and a little chewy.

Mango Smoothie in the refrigerated section
Something about how TJ does mango.

Peanut Butter Cups
These are crazy good. Way better than Reese's, which are already pretty good.

Orange Chicken (frozen section)
Pair this with some broccoli and you've got yourself a meal, baby. (Not a stew)

Plantain Chips
Again, where else can you find these? Cheap, tasty and (sort of) fruit.

Off the top of my head, these are also good, though it's not like I've been thinking about them: Joe Joes, Peanut Butter Goodies, soft chocolate chip cookies, Midnight Moo, chocolate milk, granola, naan, pear sauce.

I just googled to see what else I should get/try. Cookie butter, mac & cheese. Fair enough.

Return of the Chili

I basically followed the recipe I wrote three years ago. Except that I wanted to make a bigger batch.

Meats

1.88 pounds of Angus Beef Stew Meat
Two grilled Italian Sausages, sliced

Chiles
1 jalapeno with seeds
1 poblano

Veggies
half white onion
half red onion
1 red pepper
5 cloves garlic

Liquids & Spices
2 cup Pace Picante sauce
half cup Gates bbq sauce
6 cups chicken broth
2 tsp chili powder
1 tsp cayenne powder
sprinkle cinnamon
sprinkle chipotle hot sauce

I seared the stew meat in 4 batches, seasoned with salt and pepper as they came off.

Into the pot with chicken broth. 7:00 am MST.

I've added picante and Gates. Simmered for a while. Right now it's just the beef. 8:45 am MST

All the chiles and veggies get added. 9:00 am MST.

I added the Italian Sausage around 11:00 am. It didn't need to break down at all, I just wanted it in there.

Noon MST. Finished. Good depth of flavor. The jalapeno seeds made it quite spicier, though I wonder if it's better presentation to use more jalapenos with no seeds. I love every component. Served with Fritos Scoops.

The beef was very tender as it had been in the pot for five hours. The veggies and sausage hadn't turned to mush since I added them later. Success all around.

Last Words on 2013 Kansas City Chiefs

As a fan of the Kansas City Chiefs franchise, it's tempting to delve into 20 years without a playoff win, how I've never really seen one since I didn't really understand or appreciate anything when I was 9, how it's the longest active streak of playoff losses.

But I'm also a fan of the 2013 Kansas City Chiefs. And it's not really fair to that team to carry all this baggage. 

Here are the games that team played, sorted by opponents record including playoffs to date. Playoff teams in bold.

L @ Denver 13-3

L vs Denver 13-3

L vs Indy 12-5

L @ Indy 12-5

W @ Philly 10-7

L @ San Diego 9-7

L vs San Diego 9-7

W vs Dallas 8-8

W vs NY Giants 7-9

W @ Tennessee 7-9

W @ Buffalo 6-10

W @ Jacksonville 4-12

W vs Oakland 4-12

W vs Cleveland 4-12

W @ Oakland 4-12

W @ Washington 3-13

W vs Houston 2-14

That tells a pretty good story. 10-0 against non-playoff teams. 1-6 against playoff teams.

If they had held on to a 21-7 lead over the Broncos on December 1, they likely would have been the #1 seed and not even had to play yesterday.

But they couldn't. They were a good team and I think seeded appropriately. 5th in the conference. About just as good as the Colts, 4th in the conference.

- - - 

Obviously they were a few plays that if just one of them had flipped, the Chiefs could have won.

1. Missing wide open Cyrus Gray to start the 4th for a sure touchdown and a 17-point lead.

2. The fumble that bounced into Luck's hands. If there was no fumble it would have been a 3rd and 2.

3. The fumble that the Colts recovered an inch in bounds.

4. Going from a 2nd and 7 to a 3rd and 11 to a 4th and 6 and field goal when up 41-38.

5. When down 44-45, and have 2nd and 7 on the INDY 39 and all we need is a field goal and there's an intentional grounding, 6 yard gain on 3rd and 17, and then Bowe gets one foot in on the 4th down. 

BUT

There are just as many plays that went the Chiefs way that led to that huge lead in the first place. These teams are about even. 

- - -

When the Colts got the deep TD pass to finally take the lead with 4 minutes to go, I was not upset. I was thinking the Colts were sure to get a TD, I was happy to have 4 minutes to drive for a field goal. Almost got there.

- - - 

Anyways, great season. Only the 4th playoff game I've gotten to experience (as an adult). And it's not like the Chiefs were going to win two more road games anyways. Once they lost twice to Denver and couldn't win the division, I had lowered my ceiling to winning one playoff game. Almost got there. 

Well that was heartbreaking.

The Top Ten of 2013

A lot of good posts this year. So much that there's 7 honorable mentions.

Honorable Mentions

Mark Fever - Food / Mark Fever - Beer

Texas BBQ Roadtrip (imaginary)

Pie for Breakfast released

Illinois: National Championships?

Odds of Winning a Championship

Thanksgiving Sandwiches

Worst to First / Best Record in NFL

Too Real





10. Avalanche 6, Predators 5
Made the list because of the screenshots where you can see me holding my nachos.

9. PIES, ranked
I stand by this list.

8. Autopilot Sales
My writing "career" is hilarious.

7. My Original Restaurant Concept Menu
This took a considerable amount of time. Worth it.

6. The Wife's Draft Analysis
The Chiefs are hilarious.

5. How much is home field worth in the NFL?
Answered a question I had thought about for a while. I love these kind of posts that you can't find anywhere else.

4. The Blade Warriors saga
You seriously won't find a post like this anywhere else.

3. Photos from San Francisco
Good photos from a good trip.

2. 30
Thirty things I thought when I turned thirty.


...and what was the best blog post that I published in 2013?
Number One

It's been a great season for the Chiefs, far exceeding any expectations. I don't have too much to say other than it's been almost 20 years since their last playoff win. 7 losses in a row.

I said it would be a success for Reid/Smith to win one at some point in KC. It could be Saturday.

Chiefs Clinch Playoffs

Chiefs are the SECOND team in NFL history to score 35+ points in the first half in back-to-back games. The other to do it: 2002 Chiefs No other team in the NFL has scored 35 points in the first half of a game even once this season.

The #Chiefs 56 points today is the most scored in the #NFL this season.

Jamaal Charles is the first RB in NFL history to have 4 receiving touchdowns in a game.

RB Jamaal Charles recorded five touchdowns in Sunday’s game (one rushing, four receiving), becoming the first player in NFL history with at least four touchdown receptions and one touchdown run in a single game.

CHIEFS RECORD BOOK - HIGHEST PASSER RATING, GAME (MIN. 20 ATTEMPTS)
158.3 Alex Smith at Oakland Dec. 15, 2013
158.3 Trent Green vs. Detroit Dec. 14, 2003

CHIEFS RECORD BOOK - HIGHEST COMPLETION PERCENTAGE, GAME (20 ATTEMPTS)
1. 85% Alex Smith at Oakland (20-17) Dec. 15, 2013

Chiefs lead the league in turnover differential at +21. Seattle is 2nd at +16.

Avs Lines again

Coming into the season this is what our forwards lines were projected as:

Projected Forwards

Jamie McGinn— Matt Duchene — P.A. Parenteau
Gabe Landeskog — Paul Stastny — Ryan O’Reilly
Alex Tanguay — Nathan MacKinnon — Steve Downie
Patrick Bordeleau — John Mitchell —Mark Olver

Honestly, there have been so many different lineups, it's hard to say there are definitive lines. McLeod served a 5-game suspension, Tanguay has been out a while with an injury, Stastny and Duchene both missed a couple games. But here's my best approximation at our lines when healthy.

Actual Forwards

Ryan O’Reilly— Matt Duchene — P.A. Parenteau
Gabe Landeskog — Paul Stastny — Alex Tanguay
Jamie McGinn — Nathan MacKinnon — Max Talbot
Cody McLeod — John Mitchell —Patrick Bordeleau

Marc-Andre Cliche (13th man)
Brad Malone (14th man)

- - -

As for the defense, I was quite worried about this projection:

Johnson - Wilson
Hejda - Barrie
Sarich - Elliott
Benoit - Hunwick

Turns out we're currently 4th in goals against, though you should credit the goalies more than the defense. Still...

Actual Defense:


Hejda—Johnson
Benoit—Sarich
Barrie—Wilson
Holden—Guenin

The top two lines are pretty set, with the bottom 4 switching around to see who takes the ice.

Chiefs Thoughts at 9-3

First up...with four games to play, the Chiefs are two games ahead of the Lions in the burger bet standings...and are currently ahead in the point differential tiebreaker +84 to +39. So it seems likely the Chiefs will hold on to that.

- - -

Going into Sunday's game, I thought the Chiefs needed two things to win:

1. Win the turnover battle by +2
2. Have more big special teams plays by +1

Well the did #2. And they won the turnover battle by 1.

- - -

Denver is really good. They're a better team than the Chiefs.

Here are my power rankings (based on who I think would win head-to-head matchups)

TIER ONE
1. Seattle
2. Denver

TIER TWO
3. New England
4. New Orleans
5. Carolina

TIER THREE
6. San Fran
7. Cincinnati
8. Kansas City

TIER FOUR
9. Indianapolis
10. Philly
11. Detroit
12. Arizona

Tier four is inconsistent. They can play great or terrible. New Orleans is very home dependent. Anyways, the Chiefs are a good team.

I think these losses have actually helped the team. The offense has improved. Alex Smith has had to throw the ball and he's done a good job.

The defense hasn't been up to stopping Peyton Manning but no teams have. I think the weaknesses in the defense have been exposed and the coaches will have a month to try and address them as best as possible.

- - -

I did my above power rankings on my own. Here are the power rankings based on Football Outsiders DVOA (based on week 12)

TIER ONE
1. Seattle
2. Denver

TIER TWO
3. Carolina
4. New Orleans
5. New England

TIER THREE
6. San Fran
7. Cincinnati
8. Chicago

TIER FOUR
9. Kansas City
10. Philly
11. Arizona

Pretty similar. Except they love Chicago.

- - -

If the Chiefs and Broncos played 100 times in Mile High in November, I think the Broncos win 85 of them.
If they played 100 times in Arrowhead on Sunday, I think the Broncos win 70 of them.

- - -

On the one hand, the Chiefs built a 21-7 lead and were 10 yards away from tying the game. So there's reason to be confident.

On the other hand, the Chiefs built a 21-7 lead. They got a kickoff return touchdown. And still lost.

The Broncos are not scared of Kansas City. They would rather face the Chiefs than the Patriots in the playoffs. And the Chiefs would rather face the Patriots than the Broncos.

- - -

I didn't want to get into last week, and it doesn't really matter, but Reid bungled the last two minutes of the drive against the Chargers.

Trailing by 3 points, with a 1st and goal from the 5, Reid calls a timeout with 1:28 to go, with about 17-19 seconds on the play clock. The Chargers had two timeouts.

On the next play, the Chiefs pass to the end zone and score. This gave the Chargers 1:19 and two timeouts to come down the field. The Chargers had already scored 24 points in the 2nd half, the Chiefs are missing their top two pass rushers.

I don't care that you got the touchdown. You can't give them that much time.

At least run the extra 18 seconds off. Now there's only a minute remaining.

And on 1st and goal from the 5, I give it to Charles on the ground. If he scores, great. If he doesn't the Chargers either have to burn a timeout or lose clock.

- - -

My biggest gripe with the game is against Reid. It was 21-21 in the third quarter. The Chiefs had a 4th and 2 at the Denver 42. This is a must-go for it.

Later in the game, the Chiefs were down 14, and they had a 4th and 1 from their own 29. They had to go for it. They got it. But what Reid didn't realize is that when you're playing the Broncos, your defense is not as good as you think. This is not a 7-7 game against the Browns. This is a shootout agains the Broncos. We need all the points we can get.

- - -

The Chiefs got to 9-0 by holding teams under 17 points. But the Broncos had their way with the Chiefs. Big play after big play.

Here are the plays by both teams of over 20 yards:

Pass to Moreno, 34 yards
Pass to Decker, 41 yards, TD
Pass to Decker, 42 yards
Pass to Welker, 20 yards
Pass to Decker, 37 yards, TD
Pass to Thomas, 77 yards
Pass to Moreno, 31 yards
Ball run, 28 yards

Pass to Bowe, 24 yards
Davis run, 20 yards
David TD return, 108 yards
Smith run, 26 yards
Pass to McCluster, 28 yards
Pass to Bowe, 23 yards

If you break it down a littler further...offensive plays over 30 yards:

Broncos: 6
Chiefs: 0

- - -

Anyways, it really doesn't change much. Even if the Chiefs had scored with 1:30 left, the Broncos would have come down and won it on a field goal. Even if the Chiefs had won the game, the Broncos would have owned the tiebreaker and won the division most likely.

So here we are at 9-3. The Chiefs will most likely be playing on the road against the loser of this week's Colts-Bengals game. I think the Bengals are a better, more complete team, but I might prefer to face them instead of Andrew Luck. I think the Chiefs might fare better on the outside field in the elements against Cincinnati, than getting beat by the Colts on their fast track. That said, I think all three of these teams are about even, and the game could go either way. The home team should be favorite slightly, but the Chiefs will have a good shot as long as they're healthy.

7 hours until kickoff. I just made sour cream and onion dip.